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The Nationals believe Jarlin Susana avoided a major elbow injury, but they admittedly won’t know for sure until the top pitching prospect proves he can return to the mound after a brief planned shutdown.
Susana has a Grade 1 sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, a concerning revelation but one that won’t immediately require Tommy John surgery.
Manager Davey Martinez said Susana will be shut down from throwing for two weeks, at which point the organization will reassess the situation and determine next steps. Club officials were initially worried the injury was more severe but were relieved when the MRI revealed only a Grade 1 strain of the ligament.
“That was best-case scenario for us,” Martinez said.
Susana, currently the Nationals’ second-rated prospect behind fellow right-hander Travis Sykora, made his most recent start for Double-A Harrisburg one week ago and threw 80 pitches over only three innings, allowing two runs on five hits and three walks. He was placed on the seven-day injured list Saturday, with Martinez at the time knowing only that the issue was with Susana's arm.
The flamethrowing 21-year-old, whose fastball regularly exceeds 100 mph, has made six starts for Harrisburg this season, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.692 WHIP. His 38 strikeouts in only 26 innings stand out, but so do his 20 walks in that same span.
One of five prospects acquired from the Padres in the 2022 blockbuster deal for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Susana was the biggest wild card of the bunch, at the time an 18-year-old with minimal professional experience but an arm that made scouts drool. He finally began to display better command last season at both levels of Single-A, lowering his walk rate to 4.2 per nine innings. That rate has jumped to 6.9 so far this year at Double-A.
The Nationals will hope Susana can rest and rehab his elbow and be able to return to pitch this season, avoiding ligament replacement surgery or the increasingly popular internal brace procedure. If, however, he attempts to return and continues to experience elbow pain, with the sprain potentially getting worse, they could end up losing valuable time before he undergoes a surgery that, unfortunately, has become commonplace for countless young pitchers.
* Cade Cavalli was unable to complete three innings in his rehab start Saturday for Triple-A Rochester, but the team believes that was a product of performance and not health concerns.
Cavalli, who had his previous rehab start skipped after he reported arm fatigue, tossed two scoreless innings to begin his outing, during which his fastball sat between 95 and 98 mph, according to Martinez.
The right-hander’s third inning got off to an OK start, but with two outs he issued three walks, hit a batter and uncorked two wild pitches. Former Nationals first baseman Dominic Smith then hit a grand slam before Cavalli issued one final walk, at which point he was pulled by manager Matt LeCroy.
“I think it was just performance,” Martinez said when asked if there were any concerns about Cavalli’s health in that final inning. “He was really trying to mix in his curveball. It looked like he didn’t have a feel for it. He hit a couple guys with it, threw one to the backstop. We’ll see how he’s doing today.”
The plan now is for Cavalli, who had Tommy John surgery in March 2023 and is still trying to make it back to the big leagues, to throw a bullpen session either Tuesday or Wednesday and then make his next scheduled rehab start later in the week.
And in further evidence the team believes he's healthy, Cavalli was officially activated off the 15-day IL and optioned to Triple-A today. It's only a procedural move and doesn't change anything in practical terms, but it wouldn't be possible if the right-hander was still dealing with any kind of physical ailment.
It's actually the first time Cavalli has ever been optioned since his August 2022 major league debut. He's been on the IL ever since, with all minor league starts coming as part of rehab assignments.
