Rogers provides reason to track Cy Young voting

The Orioles won’t have much of a presence in the voting for the four major awards, which is part of the fallout from being in last place and underachieving to such a large degree. The shows will go on without them.

There’s always 2026.

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America is adding a reliever award next year, but it wouldn’t have mattered this summer. Félix Bautista was the only hope and he hasn’t pitched since July 20, before his surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff. And he might not return until 2027.

None of the Orioles are expected to sneak onto the 10-man ballot for Most Valuable Player after Gunnar Henderson finished eighth and fourth in his first two seasons. Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt Jr. can battle it out for first place.

The rookie ballot is expanding from three to five players, but the Orioles probably will be shut out again unless Tomoyuki Sugano gets some backend support. We can talk about Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers next season.  

Tony Mansolino has posted a winning record in his interim role but won’t be counted among the three finalists for Manager of the Year. He isn’t expected to appear on any of the ballots, but a few pats on the back would be nice.

Houston’s Joe Espada, Brandon Hyde’s brother-in-law, is one of the favorites. Toronto’s John Schneider and Seattle’s Dan Wilson also could win it.

That brings us to the Cy Young, and to Orioles left-hander Trevor Rogers, who’s crafting one of the finest seasons in baseball history.

Rogers won’t take home the award, to be clear. Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown are locks on the five-man ballot, perhaps in that order. I have a vote this year and don’t think I can ignore Max Fried. Jacob deGrom also is in the conversation.

If any reliever has a chance, it’s got to be Aroldis Chapman with a 1.23 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 30 saves, .134 opponents’ average and 82 strikeouts in 58 1/3 innings. His ERA was 0.98 on Sept. 7 before allowing a run in back-to-back appearances.

In a weak starter class, Chapman would warrant stronger consideration than he’s going to receive in 2025.

I hadn’t noticed that the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi was carrying a 1.73 ERA and 0.854 WHIP in 22 starts. He doesn’t appear among the ERA leaders because he’s thrown 130 innings, and he won’t pitch in September due to a rotator cuff strain.

Now, we circle back to Rogers, who’s healthy but also situated below other top pitchers in starts and innings. How much should he be penalized for it?

The attention on Rogers is building because what he’s doing is so unusual, and in some cases unprecedented. I shared a bunch of examples yesterday. His 1.43 ERA before last night was the lowest by any major league pitcher through the first 16 starts of a season since Nolan Ryan’s 1.29 in 1981. It was the fourth lowest in a minimum 15 starts since 1920, after Satchel Paige (1.01 in 1944), deGrom (1.08 in 2021) and Bob Gibson (1.12 in 1968). He allowed two runs or fewer in 14 starts in a row, the longest streak in team history.

Jim Palmer didn’t do it. Dave McNally didn’t do it. Mike Mussina didn’t do it.

So what happened last night? Rogers held the Yankees to one hit over six scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 1.35 and WHIP to 0.87 in 106 2/3 innings.

Rogers became the first Oriole to allow one hit or fewer and keep the Yankees scoreless since Chris Ellis on Sept. 4, 2021, the first at home since Wade Miley on April 9, 2017 and the first while completing six innings since former first-round draft pick Adam Loewen on Aug. 5, 2006.

The 1.35 ERA is the lowest by an Orioles pitcher through 17 starts.  

That same ERA is second-lowest among pitchers with at least 16 starts since 1920, following Bob Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968. Major League Baseball lowered the mound after that season.

With the way Rogers is pitching, MLB might have to move the mound to shallow center field.

Rogers leads the majors in ERA among pitchers with at least 100 innings since his season debut on May 24, ahead of Skubal (1.94) and Paul Skenes (1.83). Ahead of everybody.

Of course, he should be considered for down-ballot voting.

“Does he qualify? Then yeah,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said yesterday when asked whether Rogers deserves Cy Young mention.

“I mean, it’s a 1-something, the whole deal. I think he’s got to. I don’t know how you can ignore it. So basically, 13 starts short of 30 is probably close enough. You’ve got to consider it.”

Rogers made his 17th start last night and will finish with 18, the last probably coming Friday night in the Bronx.

“Just from his high level of performance, I feel like it warrants at least an opportunity for the vote,” said reliever Dietrich Enns.

“I think just what he’s done, his body of work, it’s been amazing. Being his teammate, watching him go about his work, and from the day-to-day stuff, it’s been amazing. And just his output on the field, it’s been really fun to see.”

“Yeah, I mean, he’s definitely up there,” said Ryan Mountcastle. “I don’t know how the votes go or anything like that, but he’s been great for us and he’s a lot of fun to watch.”

The BBWAA isn’t responsible for the Comeback Player of the Year award. MLB.com beat writers handle the voting, and Rogers is way deep in that discussion, too.

His 2024 season concluded with a 7.11 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in four starts with the Orioles after the trade deadline. He showed up in spring training with a right knee subluxation. The Orioles are above .500 since his first start in Boston.

Rogers was the National League’s runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 2021.

You can call it a comeback.