In this recent post, Dan Szymborski, senior writer for FanGraphs.com and the developer of the ZiPS projection system discussed how his system saw Adley Rutschman’s 2023 season playing out.

Pretty well is the answer.

ZiPS projects Rutschman to produce an .823 OPS and 126 OPS+ in 2023, which would rank 26 percent above league average. It would be another strong season for Rutschman, and if his ZiPS projection of 4.7 Wins Above Replacement is accurate, per its current player projections, Rutschman’s WAR would rank 11^th best in the majors.

But Rutschman is not the only player that ZiPS or another projection system, Steamer, sees as having strong numbers in 2023. In looking at both ZiPS and Steamer, it seems ZiPS expects a bit more offense from other Orioles too.

For instance, ZiPS projections have four Orioles producing an OPS+ of 115 or more next season, with Rutschman at 126, Gunnar Henderson 123, Ryan Mountcastle 119 and Anthony Santander at 115. By comparison, the Yankees have just three players projected to exceed a 115 OPS+, with Aaron Judge at 164, Giancarlo Stanton 119 and Anthony Rizzo at 116.

During the 2022 season, the Orioles organization got a lot of props for its farm system and player development operation. Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com and ESPN now rank its system as No. 1. They all placed Baltimore at the top in midseason rankings, the latest we have from the outlets. They could update those soon.

Now comes an MLB Pipeline poll published recently in which the outlet surveyed major league front office officials. That group also has the Orioles as having the No. 1 farm in baseball.

Half of those asked which team has the best farm in baseball responded Baltimore. The Los Angeles Dodgers came next at 21 percent, and Arizona third at nine percent. Of the 30 clubs, nine got votes for the top farm, but no club got nearly as many votes as the Orioles did.

The article states: "The Orioles have ranked as the top farm system in our last three rankings, and it looks like the industry agrees. Even with Adley Rutschman graduated, the combination of high-end prospects just about ready to impact the big league team and depth in the system has them very well-regarded, with the Dodgers not too far behind."

So we have pretty much reached a consensus here with the top outside outlets selecting the Orioles, and many of those execs inside the game doing so as well.

If projection systems prove correct, by the end of the 2023 baseball season, Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman will have had another strong season. One strong enough to place him alongside the best players in the game.

Baltimorean Dan Szymborski, Senior writer for FanGraphs.com, contributor to ESPN, a data consultant and Baseball Writers' Association of America member, has run his ZiPS projection system since 2004. The computer projections use multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily to attempt to tell us what stats the player might produce for the year ahead.

Szymborski’s system projects a final Wins Above Replacement number of 4.7 for Rutschman for the coming year. While that would actually be less than his 5.3 fWAR of 2022, it would place him among the top 10 or 12 players in baseball and Szymborski said he would rank behind Mike Trout and a few others and would be ahead of a talent such as Mookie Betts.

ZiPS sees Rutschman batting .262/.363/.460 this year with an .823 OPS, producing an OPS+ of 126, which is 26 percent above league average. He would hit 39 doubles with one triple, 18 homers and 63 RBIs.

Szymborski said his system projects a one in 10 chance that Rutschman could max out by batting .308/.417/.568, which would produce a .985 OPS for a 166 OPS+. Those numbers, if reached, would lead to 7.4 WAR. There have been just 24 catcher seasons of 7.0 WAR or better – one by former O’s backstop Chris Hoiles. That projection has Rutschman hitting 26 home runs and close to 50 doubles.

Today I am asking a few more questions of O's fans. But with a different spin on this edition. This one is where the readers can fill us in on their personal stories.

With today's questions, rather than seek your input on the Orioles and their future outlook, I want to know about your past with baseball. I want to ask each reader and commenter about their past with this great sport.

On to today's questions:

1) How did you first get interested in baseball?

2) When did you first become an Orioles fan? Any memories from your early fandom days?

When I conducted a two-part interview and series on the Orioles farm system recently with director of player development Matt Blood, I asked a question about the Orioles' minor league managers. I inquired how the minor league skipper’s job differs from that of a big league manager.

And the answer was not unexpected for anyone that has followed the minors for any stretch of time. It is very different, and this is where the concept of winning comes into play. You play to win the game, yes that is true, as one once famously said. But on the farm you play first to develop players – this is truly job one.

Here is what Blood said on that topic.

“Well, the major league manager’s job is to win games, do as well as he can to get the team to the playoffs and to, ideally, win the World Series. There is still development going on at the MLB level, but the strategy is to win games. In the minor leagues it’s the inverse of that. In the minor leagues, the No. 1 job is to develop players, so when they make the majors they are ready to contribute. You know winning, trying to win, comes secondary to development. We definitely want competitive teams and players that are trying to win baseball games, but we’re not going to sacrifice development for winning in the minor leagues.”

I asked Blood if the O’s minor league managers make out the lineups or, for development reasons, there is front office input.

The signing of former Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens lengthened the current Orioles bullpen with the addition of another quality arm. In one sense he can pick up some of the slack that Jorge López left behind after his trade to the Minnesota Twins.

One possibility that could really benefit the team would be a scenario where Félix Bautista closes out games in the ninth with setup help in the eighth from left-hander Cionel Pérez. Pérez was such a surprise last year and got out both left- and right-handed hitters. It is unlikely the O’s would need just two pitchers for those innings, but in many wins last year before the López trade, Bautista did get into the game in the eighth and López in the ninth.

The ways clubs use bullpens these days, they pretty much look to match up from about the seventh inning on, maybe even starting with the sixth some nights. But having two dependable hurlers to handle those last two innings many nights in winnable games is one way to go.

The O’s could have some combo of Bautista, Pérez, Dillon Tate, Givens and Bryan Baker for those last nine or 10 or so outs. If DL Hall makes the team and/or winds up in the bullpen, we can add him to this mix. Or Keegan Akin, Joey Krehbiel or several other bullpen candidates/options.

But for now, pending any further moves, the Orioles look to be fortified pretty well for the late innings.

As the New Year began on Sunday, we provided a wish list for some players and O's staff for the 2023 season. We add to that here today.

Terrin Vavra and Kyle Stowers: More regular at-bats. I think that on rebuilding O’s teams that were headed for 100 or more losses, one or both of these players may have been given 300 or 400 plate appearances, and we could really tell a bit about them in such a sample. The 2023 edition may make that hard for one or both.

But among all Orioles that batted last year, Vavra’s .340 OBP ranked fourth. We know this kid can work the count and uses the whole field, We also know he hit just one homer in 103 plate appearances. The power is just not going to be there, but he has to bring what he can bring, which is the plate discipline needed on a club that ranked 22^nd in the majors in this stat last year.

Stowers power seems to be a real thing. He ranked fifth on the team in slugging among all O’s batters in 2022. He can drive it out to all fields and worked to decrease his K rate at Triple-A last year. I think that, given enough at-bats, Stowers could produce solid corner outfield stats and also would bring average-or-better defense with a plus arm.

Jorge Mateo: The ability to find once again whatever he found batting that made his hitting, sub-par to that point, look above average and even special at times for a spell last year. He did have a nice five-week stretch of hitting that ran from July 16 to Aug. 23, including his big night at the Little League Classic. In that span of 31 games he batted .321 with a .944 OPS. You thought maybe he had turned a corner. But that did not hold up, and over his final 36 games he hit .174/.213/.270/.483.

If the Orioles are going to add a pitcher they can slot at or near the top of their rotation, they are probably going to have to go the trade route at this point and potentially part with one or more of their top 30 prospects. But if they want to add a pitcher that can slot in the middle or back end of their rotation, they could still look to sign a remaining free agent.

Here are a few possibles.

Righty Zach Davies: In the 2011 MLB Draft, the Orioles selected a kid pitcher out of a high school in Arizona named Zach Davies. They picked him in round 26 and yet he signed for a big overslot bonus of $575,000.

Then-scouting director Joe Jordan knew the kid didn’t throw very hard but was wiser than his years in knowing how to attack hitters, and he had a strong changeup.

Davies has turned those traits into a decent big league career, and if the Orioles seek a reunion years later, they could have one. On July 31, 2015, the O’s traded Davies, then pitching to a 2.84 ERA at Triple-A Norfolk, to Milwaukee for outfielder Gerardo Parra. That one did not work out. At the time of the deal Parra had an .886 OPS for the Brewers, but that number dropped all the way to .625 with the Orioles. At the end of the year he signed with Colorado.

As the New Year begins today, here is a wish for health and happiness for all of us. Without the first, it gets more difficult to have the second. Let’s all go two-for-two in 2023.

As it relates to baseball and the Orioles, here is a wish list for a few people for the 2023 season.

Manager Brandon Hyde: A wish that he not change one thing. Not anything. He has proven to be a great leader for a young clubhouse and has experience handling young talent. He is just what the Orioles need right now as skipper, and I can see him leading some very good O’s teams for a long time. I love the relationship he seems to have with Mike Elias, and the duo make a great team at the top of the O’s baseball operations.

On a personal note, Hyde has been great for local reporters, although I, of course, can only speak for one of us. He’s fair with media and has shown enormous patience. In baseball, in every market, managers get a lot of the same questions over and over again. Hyde has never played media favorites and respects reporters. It is clear that he does. He is just a good guy who works well with people and cares. In 2022 more and more O’s fans realized what they have in the dugout.

Pitcher Mychal Givens: Welcome back, and here’s a wish for a great year. I think Givens would love to be a key member of another good O’s team, as he once was. He’ll be a great fit in this ‘pen – both on the mound and in the clubhouse.

The report was that the Orioles and Cubs have interest in free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer. The former All-Star won a World Series ring with the 2015 Kansas City Royals and is said to be “on the radar” of the Orioles and Cubs.

This tells us, well, not much. How much interest do they have and how much interest will Hosmer have in them?

The Padres traded Hosmer to Boston last August, and the Red Sox released him just a few days ago. Whichever team signs him will only pay him the major league minimum as San Diego remains on the hook with Hosmer for three more years at $13 million each. The Padres signed him in February 2018 to an eight-year deal worth a whopping $144 million.

If it turns out that Hosmer goes from being on the Orioles' radar to being signed and in their clubhouse, he would join a list of vets they have added that includes Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, James McCann and Mychal Givens, players they see as good clubhouse guys that can help a young team get to the next level.

Whatever energy, mentorship and leadership that is gone with departures of Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos and Rougned Odor will be made up and perhaps exceeded by this new group.

If you were told there would be no math here, you got misled. Today’s blog will include plenty of numbers, most of them good for the Orioles. As we are about to end calendar year 2022, we today take another chance to note the season in ’22 for the Orioles produced the club’s first winning season since 2016.

On top of that the club has the No. 1-ranked farm system in the majors and is about to send players such as pitcher Grayson Rodriguez to the majors for the first time.

But first some notes on the 83-79 regular season for the Orioles:

* It produced a 31-win gain, going from 52 in 2021 to 83.

* The Orioles were the last American League team to be eliminated from postseason contention.

The story from Dec. 19 in The Athletic said the Orioles are receiving trade calls on shortstop Jorge Mateo. Not that they were shopping Mateo or initiating the calls, but of course they listen on just about everything.

The Athletic wrote: “The Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Dodgers all lost shortstops on the open market. Mateo, entering his age 28 season, might be an affordable and potentially attractive fit for interested clubs, a player whose value as an athletic defender and stolen-base threat should only increase as the league introduces shift restrictions, larger bases and pickoff rules in 2023."

Right now there is a lot to like about Mateo as an Oriole, including the above that interested other teams. He seemed to fit in great in the Orioles clubhouse and is a popular teammate. He also seems to love it here, realizing this is the club that gave him the chance to play every day.

Mateo’s hard work at improving his English and thus his one-on-one communication with reporters impressed me. I had several interviews with him in which he worked hard to understand every word I said and was thoughtful with his answers. He seemed to even appreciate when a reporter double-checked to make sure the words that they heard were correct.

This guy is impressive on and off the field.

Hey, Birdland and all readers here, I hope you have a wonderful Christmas and holiday season. 

We can make no promises, but the time leading up to Jan. 1 should be pretty quiet around baseball. We'll see if that holds.

But here are a few more questions about the Orioles as the New Year soon arrives.

Is a big trade still coming?: The Orioles have yet to pull off a deal where they trade from their deep pool of prospects. They have the No. 1-ranked farm in the game, and surely their top 30 list and beyond will draw the attention of all teams in the sport.

Is a big trade for a frontline pitcher in their future? The Orioles were unable or unwilling to sign a top-of-rotation starter. Could that pitcher be had via a deal?

A few thoughts today on some Orioles moves from over the last week or so.

The addition of Mychal Givens: I had written early in the offseason that I thought the Orioles should look to add to the bullpen. This came at a time when most of the focus was on a top starter and a big bat.

Eventually, it would be great to see the Orioles have a starting rotation like Houston's, which last year featured five pitchers throwing 148 innings or more. That led to the Astros' bullpen throwing the fewest innings in the American League while recording the No. 1 bullpen ERA. Keeping your relievers fresh and in their roles lends itself to a lot of good things happening with the ‘pen pitchers.

The addition of Givens gives the O’s another solid bullpen arm that lengthens their 'pen. The trade of Jorge López late last year that moved Félix Bautista to the ninth inning took away a setup reliever and thinned out the bullpen, which showed some wear and tear late in 2022.

While Bautista is nowhere near an established closer yet, he showed both the talent and makeup to handle the job and did it well, recording 15 saves while posting a 2.19 ERA. Now in the seventh and eighth innings the O’s will have some combination of Cionel Pérez, Dillon Tate, Givens and Bryan Baker. Joey Krehbiel could factor into that, too, as could others, including DL Hall if he doesn’t make the starting five.

Can a pitcher who has thrown for three of the last four seasons for the Aberdeen IronBirds - both when they were in the short-season New York Penn League and now in the full-season South Atlantic League - be considered a prospect?

OK, probably not, but he can be considered a player with a good arm that the Orioles like who clearly flies under the radar. Maybe well under it.

Right-hander Kade Strowd put together impressive stats this past season, when he was healthy and showed a fastball that can touch the high 90s with some solid secondaries. You won’t find him on anyone’s top 30 prospects list, but the scouts must have noticed the stuff and the stats this season with Single-A Aberdeen.

The Orioles selected Strowd, 25, in round 12 of the 2019 MLB Draft out of the University of West Virginia. The same school that produced their 11^th round pick in the 2014 draft in lefty John Means. In three seasons with WVU as mostly a starting pitcher, Strowd went 10-16 with a 5.31 ERA.

In his first O’s season in 2019 after that draft, when Aberdeen was still a short-season club, he made his pro debut, throwing 17 innings for the IronBirds without allowing an earned run. He didn’t pitch in 2020. Nobody on the farm did, as the pandemic forced the cancellation of all minor league games. For whatever reason, Strowd took a step back in 2021, going 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA for Aberdeen.

The Orioles' No. 1-ranked farm system currently features six players ranked in the Baseball America top 100 prospects list. That is a strong number. And if the O’s still have those six – and they likely should – when the publication releases a new top 100 list in January heading into 2023, that would be an Orioles first.

Since 1990, when Baseball America began releasing a top 100 list each January, the O’s have had as many as five players ranked, but never six.

Currently, they have the No. 1-rated player in Gunnar Henderson, in addition to Grayson Rodriguez (No. 4), Jackson Holliday (No. 38), DL Hall (No. 55), Colton Cowser (No. 88) and Jordan Westburg (No. 89).

Among the 33 lists Baseball America has released, only three times have the O’s had five rated, and it has happened each of the last two years and also in 2008.

In 2008, it was Matt Wieters (12), Chris Tillman (67), Radhames Liz (69), Troy Patton (78) and Nolan Reimold (91).

Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has said the Orioles' current top 10 prospects list is about as good as any he’s ever seen. That is high praise since he was involved with Houston’s rise to the top of big league baseball and they had some pretty strong young talent there too.

Today I am taking a look at and providing a brief comment on each player on Baseball America's list of the Orioles' top 10 prospects.

These are all names that should be well-known to most Orioles fans by now. Three have already seen the majors.

The Orioles pulled off a rare feat last season when they had two different players ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball by Baseball America: catcher Adley Rutschman and later infielder Gunnar Henderson.

No. 1 – IF Gunnar Henderson: There is plenty to like here, and Henderson will likely begin next year as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect, as he is today. I mean, what is going to change between now and then? Henderson’s stay at the top, though, will end when he gets just 15 more big league at-bats and thus will no longer be “prospect-eligible,” as they say. However - and this will, no doubt, confuse some - he will still be eligible to win the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award.

Recently here we discussed how the Orioles handle their minor league managers and some other topics with Orioles director of player development Matt Blood. Executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias hired Blood in September 2019.

On Blood's watch the Orioles have become the No. 1 farm system in baseball. He would be the first to say he is one cog in the system. But I would add he is a very important one, and some of his hires have been a big part of that ranking.

Here are some questions from me and answers from Blood on some other topics within player development for the Orioles.

Q: What are some things the Orioles have now been built up that make your pitching development and pitching program good?

A: “I would say we have a combination of talented players, very smart and hard-working coaches and really good resources from our research and development department. The coaches are provided with information as good as you can get anywhere. And they are really skilled at providing that information effectively to the players.”

Whether you are having a festive day or not, or are starting to get in the Christmas spirit or not, there is always time to talk baseball and about the Orioles.

Today, as usual, you provide answers to any or all of the questions. Some of the most fun reading can be checking out reader responses to each other, so make time for that too.

Questions coming, Egg Nog not required.

Today's questions:

* How many starts will righty Grayson Rodriguez make this season, and how many innings can he throw after last year?

A streak stayed alive recently. The Orioles have made a selection in every Rule 5 draft that was held since 2006. This time they selected right-handed reliever Andrew Politi from the Boston Red Sox. 

Now Politi, coming off a good 2022 season when he spent time at both Double-A and Triple-A, will try to first make the O’s Opening Day roster and then stick with the club all season next year, per the Rule 5 rules. A 15th-round draft pick out of Seton Hall in 2018, Politi pitched in 50 games last year, going 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA.

Over 69 1/3 innings he allowed 45 hits and just six homers, recording 22 walks to 83 strikeouts. He posted a 2.9 walk rate and 10.8 strikeout rate with a .186 batting average against and 0.97 WHIP. Some strong stats that included a 28.3 strikeout percentage in his time at Triple-A.

I recently talked with Baseball America’s editor-in-chief, JJ Cooper about this O's addition. Few know the Rule 5 draft or cover it better than Cooper. He sees this pick as a different type of Rule 5 selection for the O's. Not a pitcher that a losing team might select for future help but a major league-ready pickup that a team chasing the playoffs might take a look at.

“The Orioles were looking for a player that could fit into their 2023 bullpen, and if I were looking for a player in this year’s Rule 5 draft, Politi is one of the ones that most stands out for that," said Cooper. "He had success last year. He had upper-level success, he spent most of the year at Triple-A. It’s not a high-upside play. He’s got solid stuff. A mid-90’s fastball that plays well with a hard slider.