We’ve reached a potentially important day in the still-nascent stages of the Paul Toboni era of Nationals baseball. It’s non-tender day across the major leagues, which means the new president of baseball operations has some significant decisions to make, probably his most significant roster decisions since taking the job about two months ago.

By 6 p.m., all MLB clubs must tender 2026 contract offers to all arbitration-eligible players. What does that mean? In a nutshell, teams must officially inform all players with at least three but fewer than six years of big league service time whether they are being retained for next season. Their specific salaries will be determined at a later date, with the two sides either agreeing to a figure on their own or filing for arbitration.

Any players who aren’t offered contracts today are “non-tendered,” which serves the same purpose as getting released. They immediately become free agents, allowed to sign with any club.

Toboni’s predecessor, Mike Rizzo, made plenty of news on this day in seasons past. Just one year ago, he surprised most by non-tendering Kyle Finnegan before eventually re-signing the All-Star closer during spring training for a lower salary number than he would have received via arbitration. (Tanner Rainey also was non-tendered last year, a less surprising move.)

The Nationals have seven current players who are arbitration-eligible, including several big names: CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli and Riley Adams. And while the decision to tender contracts to some of these players is obvious, it’s not such an easy call on several others.

Why wouldn’t you tender a contract to one of these players? Because the arbitration process pretty much guarantees raises to all of them, substantial raises in some cases. If the team doesn’t believe a player is worth what he’s likely to get through arbitration – or if he just doesn’t figure into the club’s long-term plans anymore – it often makes sense to let him go.

Let’s run through these seven candidates, the case for tendering and the case for non-tendering each of them. (All 2026 salaries come fromMLB Trade Rumors’ annual projections.) …

LUIS GARCIA JR.
Service time: 4 years, 142 days
2025 salary: $4.5 million
2026 projected salary: $7 million

Reason to tender: The 25-year-old second baseman may have his flaws, but he’s still been a productive hitter each of the last two seasons, with real potential for improvement. And you may have a hard time signing a middle infielder who can be counted on for at least 25 doubles, 15 homers, 15 stolen bases and an OPS above .700 for less than what Garcia will make through arbitration.

Reason to non-tender: After more than 600 MLB games played, this might just be who he is: a free-swinging, modest-power, low-OBP hitter and well-below-average defender. If the new front office isn’t convinced he’s part of the plan, maybe it’s better to just move on now.

CJ ABRAMS
Service time: 3 years, 130 days
2025 salary: $780,600
2026 projected salary: $5.6 million

Reason to tender: The 25-year-old shortstop has been deemed a big part of the Nationals’ long-term plan since he was acquired in 2022. He was an All-Star in 2024 and put up nearly identical numbers in 2025, even with a significant fade in the second half. A shortstop of that caliber is more than worth what he’s due to make.

Reason to non-tender: There really isn’t any reason to non-tender Abrams. Even if Toboni is willing to listen to trade offers for him this winter – and that’s a distinct possibility – other clubs won’t be turned off by his salary, and he will fetch plenty in return. Why give him up for nothing when you can get something of value in exchange for him?

MACKENZIE GORE
Service time: 4 years
2025 salary: $2.89 million
2026 projected salary: $4.7 million

Reason to tender: Though the lefty has yet to put together a full six months of excellence, he’s still only 26 and has shown more than enough over long stretches to suggest he has the ability to grow into a legitimate ace. Even if he doesn’t, 30 starts with an ERA around 4.00 and way more strikeouts than innings pitched is a bargain at Gore’s price.

Reason to non-tender: Like Abrams, there’s no reason to just let Gore go right now. Like Abrams, he could be an attractive trade candidate this winter. And he’d probably fetch even more in return, given the immense potential, affordable salary and two remaining seasons of club control.

JAKE IRVIN
Service time: 2 years, 152 days
2025 salary: $774,600
2026 projected salary: $3.3 million

Reason to tender: Though he doesn’t quite have three years of service time, Irvin does have enough to qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two” player. He’s coming off a disappointing season, but he’s still one of the most durable starters in baseball, with enough quality outings mixed in there to suggest he can get better with experience and perhaps the help of the Nats’ new coaching staff. Teams pay way more than he’ll make for workhorses to fill out the back end of their rotations.

Reason to non-tender: Irvin did significantly regress this season, his velocity and strikeout rates decreasing while his walk and home run rates increased. He’s made 90 MLB starts now and sports a 4.94 ERA. Is it possible he’s never going to be better than this? If so, maybe it’s not worth investing in him any longer.

RILEY ADAMS
Service time: 3 years, 171 days
2025 salary: $850,000
2026 projected salary: $1.5 million

Reason to tender: Given the uncertainty around Keibert Ruiz after his concussion-marred season, the Nationals need as much ready-to-play catching as they can get. Adams may not be a true No. 1 guy, but he did perform better when given the chance to play more this year. And even though he’s entering his second year of arbitration-eligibility, he still isn’t going to make that much.

Reason to non-tender: Adams looked like a potential non-tender candidate last winter, and he looks like a potential non-tender candidate again this winter. With 849 MLB plate appearances on his resume, he’s got a career OPS+ of just 80. His throwing improved, but he still rates poorly defensively. And given Ruiz’s uncertain status, Toboni might believe he needs to acquire a more productive No. 2 catcher who could take over as No. 1 if needed.

JOSIAH GRAY
Service time: 4 years, 75 days
2025 salary: $1.35 million
2026 projected salary: $1.35 million

Reason to tender: After missing the entire season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Gray looks like he’ll finally be ready to go next spring and attempt to re-establish his place in the Nationals’ rotation. The organization has invested a lot in him at this point. And because he didn’t pitch at all this year, he won’t receive much (if any) pay raise.

Reason to non-tender: It’s possible the Nationals don’t want to commit even that modest salary without knowing for sure Gray is going to be good to go. They could theoretically non-tender him today, then re-sign him to a lesser salary (if he’s agreeable) as some insurance just in case he doesn’t actually make it all the way back.

CADE CAVALLI
Service time: 2 years, 141 days
2025 salary: $760,200
2026 projected salary: $1.3 million

Reason to tender: How is Cavalli already eligible for arbitration after making only 11 MLB starts? Because he spent more than two years on the 60-day IL, earning MLB service time as a result. It’s an unfortunate reality, but it shouldn’t disrupt the long-time plan of developing the 2020 first round pick into a frontline MLB starter. He certainly showed enough down the stretch this season to believe he’s still got a very bright future.

Reason to non-tender: It’s hard to believe the new front office doesn’t view Cavalli as a big part of the plan right now. So there’s little reason to non-tender him. The only rationale would fall under the same logic as Gray, that perhaps they could save money by non-tendering him and then re-signing him at a lower salary. But Cavalli would have to agree to do that and not sign with another club if he felt spurned by the suggestion.