Besides studying the active and 40-man rosters, reviewing every affiliate in the organization and gathering outside opinions, a team’s needs and strengths can be highlighted by a simple exercise.

What would the Orioles look like if the season started today?

Spoiler alert: A lot different than they will by late March.

Trevor Rogers and Chris Bassitt are subtracted from the rotation after reaching free agency. Rogers will decline the $23.15 million qualifying offer. The bullpen is missing Andrew Kittredge and Keegan Akin, who also became free agents. And after Akin underwent Tommy John surgery. The outfield won’t have Leody Taveras or Luis Robert Jr. The bench won’t have first baseman Ryan Mountcastle unless they re-sign him at a much lower cost than the $7.5 million option that they declined.

Ties also were cut with relievers Albert Suárez and Dietrich Enns. Suárez has a knack for finding his way back, so don’t count him out completely.

The Orioles tied the franchise record by using seven catchers, bringing the grand total to 14 over the past two seasons. Samuel Basallo and Carlos Narváez are the only survivors from this season. Adley Rutschman, Yohel Pozo, Sam Huff, Chadwick Tromp and Jake Rogers are out of the equation.

Here’s a reminder of the 2026 Opening Day roster:

Starters
Trevor Rogers
Kyle Bradish
Shane Baz
Chris Bassitt
Zach Eflin

Relievers
Ryan Helsley
Yennier Cano
Tyler Wells
Rico Garcia
Anthony Nunez
Yaramil Hiraldo
Grant Wolfram
Dietrich Enns

(Kittredge, Keegan Akin and Félix Bautista were on the injured list.)

Catchers
Adley Rutschman
Samuel Basallo

Infielders
Pete Alonso
Gunnar Henderson
Coby Mayo
Ryan Mountcastle
Blaze Alexander
Jeremiah Jackson
(Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg were on the IL.)

Outfielders
Taylor Ward
Tyler O’Neill
Colton Cowser
Dylan Beavers
Leody Taveras

Bradish and Baz would be 1-2 if the rotation had to be set today. Brandon Young would be third after his breakout season.

And that concludes our sure-things segment on the starters.

Cade Povich will be recovered from his elbow cleanup procedure. Trey Gibson will try to advance from depth piece. Left-hander Luis De León will try to take the next step after his bullpen work in September. The prospects list includes Michael Forret, Nestor German, Levi Wells and Double-A pitchers Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa, Caden Hunter, JT Quinn and Braxton Bragg.

It’s crystal clear that the rotation is a major priority, with perhaps two starters the goal. And president of baseball operations Mike Elias confirmed the obvious at general manager Jared Banner’s press conference that he’s seeking a No. 1 starter.

“We have, I think, a really promising internal group of arms, both at the major league level and the minor league level,” Elias said, “but as we’re talking about it upstairs today, looking for upgrades in the rotation is absolutely on the menu.”

For context, Elias was asked about a top-of-the-rotation starter.

The bullpen will have Helsley and Bautista at the back end if they’re healthy and the Orioles don’t trade one. Seems smart to hold onto them rather than trust that both will avoid the injured list. Excess goes away quickly.

Wells was traded to the Rays for Forret. Enns is a free agent after the Orioles declined his $3.5 million option. Cano signed a new two-year, $7.5 million contract and had a bounce back season in 2026 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 68 games. He’s a lock. Garcia led the team in appearances with 75 and for a while was one of the best relievers in the majors. He’s out of options and also expected to stay.

Nunez was optioned in camp but made the club after Akin’s groin injury. He’s got to earn a spot in camp. Hiraldo was hurt and ineffective. Grant Wolfram can be penciled in, but a lefty is a target area this winter despite Josh Walker’s emergence.

A Nov. 6 mock likely would include Alex Hoppe after his arrival from the Mariners in the Taylor Ward trade. Cam Sanders will compete for a spot, and the Orioles added Josh White and Philip Abner this week on waiver claims. Cameron Foster made six appearances before a right shoulder injury, and he remains on the 40-man roster after the heavy shuffling.

Seven of the current eight probably would be Helsley, Bautista, Cano, Garcia, Hoppe, Wolfram and Walker, with Sanders or Nunez the eighth. At least one newcomer is crashing this unit.

Basallo and Carlos Narváez would be the catching duo, but a backup also is on the shopping list to at least provide competition. Zach Morgan was a waiver claim this week and the Triple-A roster includes Creed Willems, Silas Ardoin and Ethan Anderson. None of them have played in the majors.

The infield is easy to mock – you know what I mean – based on the number of returnees. That doesn’t mean it’s immune from change.

Jackson is bumped with Holliday and Westburg joining Alonso, Henderson, Mayo, Alexander and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. That leaves room for only four outfielders, but Alexander is capable of serving as a backup.

The question is whether Elias views the infield as excess that can be used to acquire a starter or outfielder in a trade.

Heston Kjerstad is a minor league free agent and removed from the Sarasota scrums seeking more retellings of his injury history and mysterious illness and inability to live up to his draft status. O’Neill is owed another $16.5 million in the final year of his contract, which certainly improves his chances of being on the Opening Day roster. Cowser and Beavers are the left-handed hitters capable of handling the corners and center. Cowser is the more advanced defender.

Ward broke camp as the everyday left fielder but left his power back in Anaheim. The Orioles signed Rece Hinds to a one-year major league contract but he isn’t a slam dunk to make the club or stay on the 40-man roster. Christian Franklin came in a deadline trade with the Nationals but profiles more as a part-timer with his speed and plus-defensive skills.

This is a thin position. Enrique Bradfield Jr. is expected to make his major league debut at some point, after the Orioles put him on the 40-man roster later this month. Reed Trimble already is on it but will have to wait for his chance while also trying to outrun his injury history. He was limited to 32 games this year, 15 with Norfolk. But he improved to 64-for-64 in career stolen base attempts.

Show me another player who’s doing that.

Show me what this team looks like as we get deeper into the offseason.