Toboni faces trade dilemma with Gore, Abrams

Whether you agreed with the decision to trade Juan Soto way back in 2022 or not, you understood the selling point of the move from the Nationals’ perspective. Yes, they had just dealt away a generational, homegrown, championship-winning player at 23. But in return they got five of the Padres’ top prospects, perhaps the most impressive trade haul in major league history.

And when three of those prospects became National League All-Stars within three years, with hope still for the other two guys to become permanent big leaguers at some point, it was hard to refute the logic.

But there was a second half to the equation. Yes, the Nats wanted as many of those prospects to develop into future stars and dwarf Soto’s value to the club. But then they wanted those players to become part of the franchise’s next championship-contending roster.

That, of course, has not happened yet. And now, with the front office that made that monumental trade no longer in charge, comes a question few could have imagined at the time: Might the Nationals trade one or more of the players they received in the Soto trade before actually winning anything?

It’s among the most intriguing questions of this offseason and one of the toughest decisions new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni must confront in the coming weeks.

To be clear, we’re talking about two of the young players from the Soto package who potentially could be dealt now: MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams. James Wood isn’t going anywhere; he’s now the backbone of the team’s daily lineup. Jarlin Susana isn’t going anywhere yet, not while he’s still recovering from surgery to repair a torn lat muscle. And while Robert Hassell III could potentially draw interest from other clubs, his value is probably at a low point at this point in time, which should discourage the team from moving him this winter.

But Tobini’s phone has been ringing with executives from other teams wondering about the asking price for Gore and/or Abrams.

Why would he take those calls, you ask? Because Gore is set to become a free agent in two years, with Abrams next in line the following winter. And if the new guy in charge isn’t sure his team is going to be ready to seriously contend in that timeframe, and if he isn’t sure he’s going to be able to convince either – or want – to sign either to an extension, it makes logical sense to consider dealing them now when their value is at its highest.

Toboni was asked specifically about Gore during an appearance Thursday on ESPN baseball insider Buster Olney’s podcast. His answer shed some light into his thought process.

“He’s really good, so it doesn’t surprise me that teams are reaching out on him,” Toboni said. “I had a conversation with MacKenzie the other day, and I said: ‘Before we even really hop into this, this is going to be a thing. Teams are going to call about you, because you’re really good. What I’m tasked with, and what the group here is tasked with, is we want to hold a high bar. But also, we’re going to listen because that’s part of our job.’ That’s exactly what I told MacKenzie.”

It's a diplomatic answer, to be sure, but it reiterates what many had already speculated. Gore isn’t untouchable. And if the right offer was made, Toboni would probably be willing to make the deal.

The counter-argument, of course, is that a franchise that has spent the last four years rebuilding, shouldn’t be looking to trade away a potential cornerstone two years before he’s eligible for free agency. (Though it’s worth noting this is exactly what the Tampa Bay Rays organization does on an annual basis, to the consternation of many and the admiration of some.)

The Nationals don’t exactly sport the kind of rotation depth to be able to afford trading their 26-year-old ace. Even though he’s struggled the last two seasons to carry first half success into the entire second half, he’s still one of the more promising young starters in baseball. He’s still very affordable. And as Toboni pointed out in his interview with Olney, he may be on the verge of a true breakthrough.

“We’re really excited to have him in our organization,” the head of baseball operations said. “And one of the things I think I’m most excited about with him is I still think he’s not fully who he can be as a pitcher. I’m really excited about the development prospects for him. Assuming he’s in a Nats uniform next year, I think we’re going to get the best version of MacKenzie that we’ve seen in his career.”

Toboni didn’t directly address Abrams, but the same mantra likely applies. Like Gore, Abrams has played at an All-Star level during the first half of each of the last two seasons before faltering in the second half. And in the shortstop’s case, he’s still three years away from free agency.

So maybe all this trade talk is just bluster. Maybe both Gore and Abrams will be right back in West Palm Beach two months from now when spring training commences, retained as core pieces of a roster that needs as many as it can get.

But when he arrives in Orlando next week for his first Winter Meetings running the Nationals, Toboni had better be ready to take a lot of calls about two of the most intriguing trade candidates in the sport. And then he better be ready to make the right call when assessing their place in the organization’s short- and long-term plans.