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It’s a big day in the baseball world, because it’s Hall of Fame election day. Or, to be more precise, Hall of Fame election results announcement day.
The actual election took place earlier this winter, with BBWAA voters receiving ballots in late-November and required to mail them back no later than Dec. 31. Three weeks later, those ballots will be tallied and the results announced at 6 p.m. EST on MLB Network.
Each year’s ballot is distinctive, with its own individual quirks. This year’s is no different, with 12 first-time nominees (but none of them obvious slam dunks to be elected) and 15 returning nominees (several of them seemingly on the cusp of enshrinement).
As always, I’ll publish my own official ballot and explainer column later this evening after the results are announced. So please be sure to check back and read one of my favorite articles of the year. Until then, here are some of the biggest things to keep an eye on leading up to tonight’s revelation …
IS THIS THE YEAR FOR BELTRAN AND JONES?
The top two returning candidates are the two candidates with the best chance of being elected tonight: Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones. Beltran got awfully close last year, named on 70.3 percent of ballots. Jones was a bit farther back at 66.2 percent. It would not be surprising if both reached the magical 75 percent threshold for induction this time around. Beltran has always had a rock-solid baseball case; he’s mostly been held back by those who believe his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal in 2017 disqualifies him based on the Hall’s longstanding instructions that voters consider character, integrity and sportsmanship in addition to playing performance. Jones has perhaps been held back somewhat by the fact he pled guilty in 2013 to domestic violence charges against his wife, probably held back more so because his on-field performance took a nosedive after age 30. But there seems to be growing support for both, and if anyone is going to get voted in this year, these are the two most likely candidates.
DOES ANYONE ELSE MAKE IT (OR AT LEAST COME CLOSE)?
The 2025 BBWAA ballot featured three inductees in Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner. Could we get another three-man class in 2026? It doesn’t seem likely, but it’s not impossible. After Beltran and Jones, the top returning vote-getters are Chase Utley (39.8 percent), Alex Rodriguez (37.1 percent), Manny Ramirez (34.3 percent), Andy Pettitte (27.9 percent) and Felix Hernandez (20.6 percent). Utley, in particular, seems to have received a big boost in support this year and could crack at least 60 percent. If there are even more votes for the former Phillies second baseman out there, he could potentially threaten 75 percent. We probably know at this point Rodriguez and Ramirez aren’t getting major boosts because of their official suspensions for PED violations. But Pettitte and Hernandez also seems to be getting significantly more support this year than they did in 2025, with voters possibly lowering their traditional standards to account for the changes in pitching longevity and dominance in the modern game.
WHICH FIRST-TIMER GETS THE MOST SUPPORT?
The list of first-time nominees, to be honest, is fairly weak. There’s no slam-dunk choice like we saw last year with both Suzuki and Sabathia. But there are candidates who will get significant support and could set the tone for an eventual path to Cooperstown. Cole Hamels is probably the best of the group. Ryan Braun also will get votes (though probably not as many as he would get if the voting was based strictly on performance, because of his own PED suspension saga). It might be difficult, though, for any of the 10 other first-timers to even crack the 5 percent threshold necessary to be included again on next year’s ballot.
ARE THERE ANY OTHER BIG GAINERS?
We don’t always pay much attention to players who receive between 10 and 20 percent support in their first few years on the ballot. But you’d be surprised how many of those players actually wind up climbing the ladder during their 10 years of contention, and in some cases do get elected before their eligibility runs out. It happened to Wagner (16.7 percent in his fourth year on the ballot, 82.5 percent in his 10th year). It happened to Scott Rolen (17.2 percent in his second year, 76.3 percent in his sixth year). And it happened to Larry Walker (15.5 percent in his sixth year, 76.6 percent in his 10th year). Some guys who might see a big spike in their support tonight, setting the stage for future election: Bobby Abreu (19.5 percent), Dustin Pedroia (11.9 percent), Mark Buehrle (11.4 percent) and David Wright (8.1 percent).
HOW MUCH DID THE ELECTORATE CHANGE?
A little-known aspect of Hall of Fame voting is the fact the electorate changes every year. Writers become eligible to vote after 10 years as BBWAA members, but they lose their eligibility 10 years after they’re no longer actively covering the sport. So that means there are always a handful of new voters and a handful of retired voters each year. But there’s reason to believe there will be a much larger influx of voters this time, because it happens to have been 10 years since the BBWAA began granting membership to writers from MLB.com. We don’t know for sure what the net increase will be, but the total number of voters is probably going to rise significantly from last year’s total of 394. That could significantly alter the percentage of support various players receive, especially with past evidence new (often younger) voters are less inclined to keep out players with PED connections. It’s not the most important development of the 2026 election, but it’s something that could have a real impact, not only on this year’s results but especially future results.
