Cavalli, Nats avoid arbitration with deal that includes 2027 club option

The Nationals ultimately did settle with Cade Cavalli to avoid arbitration, in the process agreeing to an unconventional deal that establishes a significant raise for the right-hander in 2027 if he pitches well in 2026.

Cavalli and the Nats agreed Sunday to a contract that will pay him $862,500 this season, with a $4 million club option for next season that could be bought out for a mere $7,000, a source familiar with the terms confirmed.

The 2026 salary figure falls right at the midpoint between the numbers each side formally submitted for arbitration 11 days ago. Cavalli had sought $900,000; the team had offered $825,000. In reality, he’s guaranteed to make at least $869,500 because of the inclusion of the buyout.

It’s a small win for Cavalli, but the bigger win would come if he puts together an impressive first full major league season, convincing the Nationals he’s worth the $4 million option in 2027. (He would still be under club control if the option isn't picked up and would just need to go through the arbitration process again.)

How well would he need to pitch for the club to pick up the option? For comparison’s sake, Jake Irvin will earn $2.8 million this season as a first-time arbitration-eligible player who is coming off a difficult season in which he went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.428 WHIP while allowing a league leading 38 homers in 180 innings.

MacKenzie Gore, meanwhile, will make $5.6 million in his second year of arbitration after going 5-15 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.353 WHIP over 159 2/3 innings.

Thus, the Nats could find Cavalli worth the $4 million if he stays healthy and provides 150-plus innings with an ERA in the 4.00s.

Whether the 27-year-old can do that remains to be seen. His potential remains sky-high. His actual performance remains highly unknown.

The organization’s first round pick in 2020, Cavalli was rated a top-100 prospect in the sport by most publications before making his MLB debut late in the 2022 season. He was poised to make the Opening Day rotation the following spring but tore his elbow ligament during a mid-March exhibition outing and required Tommy John surgery.

It took two full missed seasons for Cavalli to reach a point where he could resume pitching every fifth day in the minors. The Nationals finally brought him back to the majors in August, and over 10 starts the rest of the season saw flashes of his potential mixed with average results. His final totals: 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 48 2/3 innings.

Results aside, Cavalli still showed off arguably the best repertoire by any Nats starter since Stephen Strasburg, with an upper-90s fastball, mid-80s curveball and a changeup that nearly averaged 90 mph. Club officials now need to see him show that stuff every fifth day at the big league level, keeping himself healthy while also having more consistent success against the best hitters in the world.

“I’m just feeling extremely grateful that I’m healthy, and I’m going to have a regular offseason, the first one in three years,” he said following his final start in September. “I felt like I got a lot better this season. It was really good to get my feet wet up here and hopefully take that and just go get better.”

The Nationals are counting on it. Cavalli figures to join Gore atop their 2026 rotation, assuming the latter doesn’t get traded before Opening Day. At the moment, the rotation behind those two includes right-hander Foster Griffin (who was signed this winter after three successful years pitching in Japan), right-hander Josiah Gray (himself returning from Tommy John surgery) and either Irvin, Brad Lord or Mitchell Parker.

Cavalli was the only of the Nats’ seven arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to terms on 2026 contracts prior to the league’s Jan. 8 deadline. In the end, the two sides were only $75,000 apart, by far the smallest gap between any players or clubs who filed for arbitration this year.

Though they were required to formally file for arbitration, with a hearing set for early-February, Cavalli and the Nationals were free along to keep negotiating and attempt to settle on a salary without ever going before the three judge panel.

Only 11 days later, they did just that.