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The Blue Jays finished in last place in 2024 and are headed to the World Series. They were the top seed in the American League, just like the Orioles in 2023.
The Orioles slipped to the top Wild Card the following year and all the way into the division basement this summer. They won 75 games, one more than Toronto in 2024.
Should parallels be paraded to fans praying for a prolific bounce back next season?
Payroll disparities can’t be ignored – the Blue Jays at almost $242 million on Opening Day and the Orioles at around $164 million.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed an extension in April for $500 million over 14 years and he was named Most Valuable Player in the Championship Series. George Springer signed a six-year, $150 million free-agent contract in January 2021 and his three-run homer in the seventh inning in Game 7 propelled the Blue Jays into the World Series.
They’re paying Kevin Gausman $110 million over five years. He made $23 million this season. Chris Bassitt made $21 million. José Berríos signed an extension in November 2021 that paid $131 million over seven years. Shane Bieber came over in a deadline trade with the Guardians after receiving a two-year, $26 million contract, including a $16 million player option for 2026.
Closer Jeff Hoffman reportedly had agreements with the Orioles and Braves before his physical raised concerns over his shoulder and caused both teams to back out. Hoffman signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Blue Jays, blew saves and kisses, but struck out the side in the ninth inning Monday to seal a 4-3 win. The Orioles lost their closer after July 20 and won’t have him around next season.
Anthony Santander played in only 54 games due to a shoulder injury and was removed from the ALCS roster with back pain, but he’s getting $92.5 million for five years.
Some spending works, some doesn’t. At least not an immediate return.
This turnaround isn’t just about money, which is where the Orioles might be able to relate. Injuries took their toll a year ago, but there’s more. Alejandro Kirk hit .253/.319/.359 with five homers and 54 RBIs in 103 games in 2024 and .282/.348/.421 with 15 homers and 76 RBIs in 130 games this season. Bo Bichette hit .225/.277/.322 with 16 doubles, four homers, 31 RBIs and a minus-0.3 bWAR in 81 games in 2024 and .311/.357/.483 with 44 doubles, 18 homers, 94 RBIs and a 3.4 bWAR in 139 games this season.
Springer hit .220/.303/.371 with 19 doubles, 19 homers, 56 RBIs and a 1.1 bWAR in 145 games in 2024 and .309/.399/.560 with 27 doubles, 32 homers, 84 RBIs and a 4.8 bWAR in 140 games this season.
Addison Barger took that next proverbial step, hitting .197/.250/.351 with 11 doubles, seven homers, 28 RBIs and a 0.4 bWAR in 69 games in 2024 and .243/.301/.454 with 32 doubles, 21 homers, 74 RBIs and a 1.2 bWAR in 135 games this season. Davis Schneider raised his on-base percentage from .282 to .361 and his slugging from .343 to 436, though his games played were reduced from 135 to 82.
Veterans rebounded, which is what the Orioles need from outfielder Tyler O’Neill and, if he’s still here, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. They need Gunnar Henderson to avoid a spring injury and slow start and to regain his power. They need Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser to be much bigger offensive contributors. A giant leap forward from Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg also would assist in turning around the franchise.
The final box score from the ALCS shows Gausman getting the win after tossing a scoreless inning in relief. Hoffman also has his ties to the Orioles, and not only because of the physical. Owner Peter Angelos wanted the Blue Jays to give him Hoffman, then the ninth-overall pick in the draft, and other prospects in January 2015 as compensation for hiring executive Dan Duquette as president. The steep price ended that flirtation.
If the Orioles are going to be linked to the Jays again, they’d prefer to have it come from making the same jump from last to best next season.
Here’s another serving of mailbag leftovers.
Jeremiah Jackson can't field, can't run very well, has a low walk rate, still has "uncompetitive at-bats" according to a scout reported by you. Isn't this the kind of guy you trade after flashing some potential?
Jackson isn’t untouchable, of course. Also, teams probably aren’t blowing up Mike Elias’ phone. That same scout noted how Jackson had two hits in the same game with the uncompetitive at-bats. The Orioles like the bat and are expected to give Jackson a chance to win a job in spring training, if he fits on the roster. He probably isn’t a super-utility candidate.
Alex Jackson is a third catcher with no options, but he got a bunch of doubles and homers coming off the bench at age 29. Isn't this the kind of guy you trade?
Jackson isn’t untouchable, of course. Also, teams probably aren’t blowing up Mike Elias’ phone. I didn’t ask any scouts about him, but he’s fine as a third catcher. Does a nice job behind the plate, has a little pop in the bat. But hey, if someone wants to make Elias an offer, he’s going to listen.
Best leftovers: Thanksgiving turkey, spaghetti, chili, your mailbag?
Depends how hungry you are. Cold spaghetti is hard to beat.
I have very brief, very fleeting moments where I get excited that we could sign a big, true middle-of-the-order bat this offseason. Can you please tell me to not never say never on this possibility?
Never say never on this possibility. No, seriously.
Who do you prefer we sign from this group: Ranger Suárez or Dylan Cease?
Is there a wrong answer? I’d take either one with no complaints. Cease is the big strikeout guy, but he posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 33 starts in 2023 and a 4.55 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in 32 starts this year. I just talked to a scout from another organization who really likes Suárez for the Orioles. “You know what you’re gonna get. ... He’s gonna be in a playoff rotation.”
Have you seen Albert Pujols in or near the warehouse lately?
I haven’t been to the warehouse lately, so that also eliminates Scott Servais, another name of reported interest.
To create a little bit more roster depth, might the O’s option Dylan Beavers or Colton Cowser to start the season? Then if/when someone (haha) gets hurt, they can be called up. This seems wiser, to me, than calling up a rookie who most likely won't be ready for MLB yet.
Cowser and Beavers aren’t guaranteed roster spots, but they’re expected to break camp with the team. Cowser appeared in 92 games and could have played a lot more if he hadn’t fractured his left thumb in March and sustained a concussion. It didn’t happen on the same play. Imagine if it did. Anyway, he’s probably safe for Opening Day. Beavers has played in 35 major league games, so it’s possible that a disastrous spring could cost him a job. Not expected. Roster depth can be created by acquiring experienced players with options who put up good numbers in Triple-A.
Is Adley Rutschman a long-term piece or is he winter trade bait?
The Orioles aren’t trading Rutschman. Elias called him “our front-line catcher.” The Orioles look forward to putting Rutschman and Samuel Basallo in the same lineups.
Is there any increased scrutiny to the training staff and strength and conditioning staff due to the injuries last year, or were they considered freakish in nature? Or is this just what the state of baseball is in 2025?
I don’t think there’s anything freakish about those two staffs.
The injuries.
Every team is hammered by injuries. The Orioles are just wearing extra tool belts. They ranked second in the American League and fourth in the majors with 1,804 player games spent on the IL. The Dodgers were first with 2,053 and they’re in the World Series. Mike Elias talked about injuries at the season-ending press conference. "It's been a major factor, not only this year but in 2024, a big factor in our 2024 second half kind of our downturn there. It's a big factor around the league. We had a lot this year and last year and more than our fair share. Of course, it always makes you look. I think a tricky part of my job, whether it's health stuff or even just baseball stuff on the field, it's separating things that were misfortune versus things that we could've done something better, we could have controlled better.
"I do think we have a lot of talent in this organization in the medical staff and in the strength staff and that kind of whole performance area. It's an area where the sport’s growing a lot, and we need to grow a lot, and I do expect we'll have hiring and restructuring and evolution to try to get better. But that's not to say that that's why a bunch of injuries happen, but are we asking ourselves that question. Are we looking at it and are there certain cases where we could have done something better? Yeah, but not it's not like all of these cases. So we're parsing through that.”
Is candy corn really that bad?
I am not offended by its existence. It’s fine. I don’t crave it and I don’t hate it. I probably average a small handful a year because my wife loves it and Halloween provides a good excuse. This topic is a good excuse to stop.
