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The lockout may have drained the life out of this winter, but it can't eliminate one of the most important days of the year on the baseball calendar: Hall of Fame election day.
(Well, provided somebody actually does get elected today. More on that in a moment.)
The time has come for the Class of 2022 to be revealed, for a ballot of 30 candidates with varying cases for selection to be whittled down to the precious few who receive at least 75 percent of the vote among 10-year members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Shortly after 6 p.m. tonight, new National Baseball Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch will announce who made the cut, earning a slot in this summer's induction ceremony in Cooperstown alongside the six men who already were elected by the Era Committees: Bud Fowler, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Buck O'Neil and Tony Oliva.
And hopefully we'll all have reason to celebrate baseball for a little while before turning our attention back to the labor dispute that has held up the entire offseason and is now threatening to delay the start of spring training.
There is no guarantee, however, that Rawitch will see any names inside the envelope he opens. The BBWAA didn't elect any new members last year, and there's a chance it will happen again. Even in a best-case scenario, there probably won't be more than a couple of inductees.
That's because this year's ballot, while loaded with some of the biggest names of the last 30 years, is also loaded with some of the most controversial names in baseball history, for a variety of reasons. It also includes no slam-dunk first-time candidates, making the challenge greater for the voting pool.
The best odds do belong to one of the best of the first-timers: David Ortiz. The effervescent face of the Red Sox during their 21st century renaissance certainly has the offensive numbers (632 doubles, 541 homers, 1,768 RBIs, a .931 OPS) and October resume (three rings and an ungodly 1.372 OPS in 14 career World Series games) to merit immediate induction.
Ortiz's case isn't so simple, though. Some were reluctant to vote for a full-time designated hitter who never made any substantial impact in the field. And some will cite the New York Times report that named him as one of the 100 players who tested positive for performance enhancing drugs during the sport's anonymous trial of 2003 as reason to exclude him.
Even so, Ortiz appears to enter election day in a good position. Of the 188 BBWAA members who have revealed their ballots so far - FYI: I'll be revealing mine Wednesday morning, with my usual lengthy column explaining each of my selections - 84.6 percent voted for Big Papi. His final number will be probably be lower, but he's got some leeway to drop and still make it.
Also above the 75 percent threshold among publicly revealed ballots to date are the two most controversial candidates of the last decade: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. This is their 10th and final year on the BBWAA ballot, and though support for each has slowly grown over the years, they've never come close to actually making it. And while Bonds (77.7 percent) and Clemens (76.6 percent) currently are over the line, they have consistently received less support from voters who release their ballots after the announcement and especially those who don't make their ballots public at all.
The candidate who came closest to election last year - Curt Schilling, with 71.1 percent support - also is in his final year on the ballot (in spite of the fact he asked the Hall of Fame to remove him from consideration in apparent protest over reporters who are offended by the offensive things he's said and posted online in recent years). Public support for the right-hander is way down right now (60.6 percent), and it seems unlikely he'll make up that much ground among the remaining ballots.
Other returning players who have seen increased support include Scott Rolen (70.2 percent among early public ballots), Todd Helton (58 percent), Andruw Jones (50 percent) and Billy Wagner (49.5 percent). It may not happen for any of them this year, but all have plenty of time to get to 75 percent before their 10-year windows expire.
Who are the other first-time candidates? Well, how about two more of the biggest and most controversial names of the 21st century: Ãlex RodrÃguez and Manny RamÃrez. Nobody is going to argue either of those sluggers didn't produce enough to merit a spot in Cooperstown. But a lot of folks are going to argue neither deserves to be inducted because each failed official PED tests and each served lengthy suspensions handed down by Major League Baseball (Ramirez on two occasions).
Also on the ballot for the first time (and hoping to receive at least 5 percent support so they can return to the ballot next year) are Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, Carl Crawford, Jake Peavy, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Joe Nathan, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Papelbon, A.J. Pierzynski and Ryan Howard.
Other returning candidates are Omar Vizquel, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Tim Hudson and Sammy Sosa (who is in his 10th and final year of eligibility).
