Can Grayson Rodriguez return to Orioles' rotation and stay there?

The conversation surrounding Grayson Rodriguez was supposed to have a much different tone.

The Orioles made Rodriguez the 11^th overall selection in the 2018 draft and finally introduced him to the majors in 2023 after a lat injury the previous summer put his debut on hold. Another injury, this one to Kyle Bradish after being struck on the right foot by a comebacker, opened the door.

It’s slammed shut too many times.

There was a demotion after a May 26, 2023 start against the Rangers, when Rodriguez allowed nine runs, eight of them earned, and surrendered three homers in 3 1/3 innings to raise his ERA to 7.35. He returned in July, made 13 starts and posted a 2.58 ERA. Seven of those starts were quality, including his eight scoreless innings against the Rays on Sept. 16.

He held the Padres to one run in seven innings in San Diego, and the White Sox to one hit in six scoreless at Camden Yards. He looked like the anticipated ace, the No. 1 starter and No. 1 reason why Mike Elias said the cupboard wasn’t bare when the Orioles hired him as executive vice president/general manager.

Two stops on the injured list in 2024 derailed Rodriguez again. He had right shoulder inflammation on April 30 and a right lat/teres strain that forced him to be scratched from an Aug. 6 start in Toronto. The Orioles earned the first Wild Card in the playoffs and Rodriguez couldn’t get ready in time to join the roster. He hadn’t faced live hitters.

Rodriguez hasn’t appeared in a major league game since July 31, 2024. He should have been, at the least, the No. 2 starter this year behind veteran Zach Eflin. He wasn’t supposed to lose velocity in a March 5 exhibition start in Fort Myers and experience discomfort in his elbow/triceps, and later his right lat, and later his elbow again that shut him down on July 18.

“It’s unfortunate,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said while providing an update to the media. “Grayson’s a great competitor. He’s fierce and he’s tough, and this is really hard for him. It’s hard for his teammates. It’s hard for the Orioles.”

It’s hard to count on Rodriguez anymore, but he’s the wild card, non-playoff category, going into spring training 2026. Maybe it finally happens for him and for the club.

Rodriguez underwent a debridement procedure on his elbow in August and should be ready to compete in camp. He’s dealt with an impingement for the last three or four years, which he shared on “Foul Territory,” and the Orioles wonder whether it also put a strain on his lat.

“He’s going to start throwing ramp-up in October and get some throwing in before the holidays and then prepare for the season after that as he would. So there’s nothing medically suggest that he won’t be ready and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year,” Elias said at his season-ending press conference.

“I think he’s kind of an underdog, under-the-radar mentality right now, which is good, and I think he’s due for some good luck on the injury front after last year. That said, we’re cognizant that he threw zero innings and finished 2024 hurt, so we’re going to have to plan with those realities in mind. But I am bullish on the situation.” 

What about the possibility that the elbow impingement and lat strains are connected, and that the surgery solved the problem?

“Definitely a possibility,” Elias said, “but I can’t speak to that with too much confidence right now.” 

The rotation must have a new starter for the top third, someone to plop in the front, directly behind Kyle Bradish or behind Bradish and Trevor Rogers. An innings guy who provides more than just length. A 3-something ERA or better. They do exist, whether in free agency or via a trade. The draft and deadline have deepened the farm system and Elias can pull from it.

Tyler Wells will enter camp as a starter. Dean Kremer is returning, and you know what you’re getting from him. But a healthy Rodriguez, well, that’s a wrench the Orioles want to have tossed.

They can’t plan for it, but imagine the possibilities, even if Rodriguez must be eased into a typical workload. An alternative is to try him in relief, but the preference, naturally, is to have him develop into the kind of starter that the previous and current regimes envisioned. Reach that level, stay there and keep away from the injured list.  

Having Rodriguez in 2023 form, after working his way back to the majors, leaves the Orioles holding at least a pair of aces. Rogers would be a third if he pitches the way he did this year.  A fourth could come from the outside.

This is a team with so many “ifs.” If Tyler O’Neill stays healthy. If the core takes the next step. If Coby Mayo keeps improving at the plate and first base.  

The Orioles can’t rest their entire fate on “if.” Aggression is mandatory to upgrade the roster and get back to being a contender. They can’t automatically count on Rodriguez or let him influence how hard they pursue anyone, but imagine what this staff could be “if” he’s pitching every fifth day.   

If he can reset the tone of the conversation.