Some final (maybe) thoughts on Ward-Rodriguez trade

In case anyone thought the offseason would be a bore, the Orioles stunned the industry with Tuesday night’s Grayson Rodriguez trade – a late one on the East Coast. They broke their own news, which is a rarity in this industry. It froze us like a 12-6 curveball.

And they’re just getting started.

Let’s sift through some leftover thoughts on the one-for-one deal that brings slugging outfielder Taylor Ward to Baltimore.

* Some of the reviews from national media aren’t favorable for the Orioles based on Rodriguez’s potential and controllability. He can’t become a free agent until after the 2029 season. He hasn’t even reached arbitration eligibility. Ward, meanwhile, can test the market after 2026.

The Orioles are living in the moment.

Rodriguez looks like an ace when he’s healthy, but it takes a long memory. He hasn’t pitched in a major league game since July 31, 2024 due to a litany of injuries. The Angels are rolling the dice with Rodriguez but also don’t feel like it’s much of a gamble because of Ward’s contract status and the premium placed on starting pitching.

This trade could blow up in the Orioles’ faces if Rodriguez becomes Jake Arrieta 2.0, and if Ward isn’t a huge contributor to a World Series team next year. But Arrieta just needed a change of scenery and the right coaching. He was mishandled here, plain and simple. Rodriguez needs to stay healthy, and that’s much harder to control.

The Orioles will explain the rationale behind the deal at a later date, but we can speculate – and this may never be verbalized on the record – that they had some concerns about Rodriguez’s ability to stay on the mound. That could be related to his elbow surgery to remove bone chips or just in general because of his past lat/teres and shoulder injuries. And they also knew that he'd need to be on an innings limit.

In the meantime, Rodriguez told the Angels media yesterday that his arm feels great, that the surgery should alleviate the past lat/teres discomfort, and "there's really no question for me to be ready for spring training." The trick, of course, is to make it through without any setbacks or new ailments. 

Rodriguez, who learned about the trade after landing in Tampa with the intent of working out at the Sarasota facility, can’t be labeled a bust after just turning 26 earlier this week and with only two major league seasons, but he’ll never be an ace with the Orioles, which makes him a wasted 11^th overall draft pick in 2018. Scouts and executives raved about the choice, as if he was an outright steal. They loved his physical tools and work ethic, which made his fastball velocity in his final season jump from the low to upper 90s.

“Grayson Rodriguez is a future power pitcher with an advanced delivery and feel for all of his pitches,” director of scouting Gary Rajsich said at the time. “He has command of four above average pitches, can shape two distinct breaking balls, and attacks the strike zone.

“The first thing you notice is that he’s got a big, strong, durable body, and he’s an advanced high school pitcher that is a unique combination of power and polish,” Rajsich said. “He’s got a good, advanced delivery that he can repeat. His arm action’s nice and clean, and the ball comes out of his hand very well. He’s got advanced command of four pitches, and he just pounds the strike zone. We just love the competitor in him. He’s got poise and composure on the mound. He’s just out there to take care of business.

“He was a consensus pick for us in the first round. We all loved him, and we were just thrilled that he was there for us at pick 11.”

Baseball America described Rodriguez as “the biggest pop-up player of the 2018 draft class,” meaning that he exhibited sudden and dramatic improvements that made his stock soar and allowed him to unexpectedly appear and climb draft boards.  

None of the mocks had the Orioles taking Rodriguez. FanGraphs projected that they’d select infielder Jonathan India, who went No. 5 to the Reds.

One of the first observations from Mike Elias, after the Orioles hired him as executive vice president/general manager in November 2018, was how he inherited some talent despite the 115-loss season. How the cupboard wasn’t bare. And he specifically pointed to Rodriguez and DL Hall, the left-hander drafted in the first round the previous year.

Both of them had their careers stalled by repeated injuries. The 1-2 punch in the rotation never materialized, and that floored the people who counted on it.  

Angels general manager Perry Minasian knows what he's getting into with Rodriguez, who's supposed to begin throwing bullpen sessions in January, and he's jumping in head first.

"Is there risk? Yes, there’s risk. It’s eyes wide open on the risk," he said.

"That being said, it’s four years of control. It’s somebody that, when he pitches, can beat anybody on any given night. The weapons he has and the ability to throw strikes, it’s a combination that some of the best in the game have. We’ve got high expectations. He’s somebody we’re really excited to have.”

* Colton Cowser might be impacted most by the trade.

Cowser played left field until the Orioles traded Cedric Mullins to the Mets. He shifted to center but was expected to go back to his other position.

I guess no one puts Cowser in a corner.

Ward can play anywhere but has strictly been a left fielder the past three seasons. Cowser is regarded as a better left field but certainly has the ability to handle center and definitely has the arm strength for it. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Beavers also can move around but might be needed most in right. Switch-hitting Leody Taveres is an option to back up in center.

And yes, Heston Kjerstad is expected to be ready for spring training and compete for a job.

The versatility in this group allows Cowser to move to left or right late in a game for defensive purposes.

The Orioles could be done with the outfield after trading for a player expected to make $13-$14 million in 2026 in his final year of arbitration. They won’t go after the biggest fish in the free agent pool, ending speculation about Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger or Kyle Schwarber. Or they could trade from this “surplus” to acquire a starter for the top of their rotation.

This is the kind of trade that seems to answer one question but opens up a few more.

* Does Ward feel like O’Neill 2.0?

The main difference is how O’Neill signed a three-year, $49.5 million contract, with an opt-out clause that he didn’t exercise. And he’s a two-time Gold Glove winner. Ward owns a career minus-4.3 bWAR and registered zero outs above average this year.

O’Neill was supposed to supply the same kind of power after hitting 31 home runs for the Red Sox in 2024 and 34 for the Cardinals in 2021. Ward has hit 25 and 36 over the past two seasons and he drove in 103 runs this year.

Ward’s also had some injury issues over the years, but he’s played in 313 games over the past two seasons. He mashes left-handers, a quality that also attracted the Orioles to O’Neill.

* I’m not going to link this trade to the Orioles’ quest for a top starting pitcher.

They already had one on their shopping list.

Rodriguez wasn’t counted upon to occupy any of the first three spots in the rotation. The Orioles couldn’t pencil him into any role. Holding onto him only meant he could compete for a job.

Trading Rodriguez just increases the need to improve the depth on the staff. The Orioles were expected to seek multiple starters anyway.

Tyler Wells might have a better chance to stay in the rotation instead of being used in relief, but there’s too much offseason left to feel confident about it.

* Yes, I’ve heard the jokes about Beavers making a mistake, Ward scolding him, and someone saying, “Ward, don’t you think you were a little hard on Beavers?”

Good stuff. That alone could make the trade a winner.

Note: The weekly “Orioles Hot Stove Show” is returning to WBAL NewsRadio, the flagship station of the Orioles Radio Network. Beginning Dec. 4, fans can tune into AM 1090, FM 101.5, and WBAL.com each Thursday from 7-8 p.m. until the team reports to spring training in mid-February, with some exceptions.

Brett Hollander, Ben Wagner and myself will be at the microphones. 

For more information, including updates on live show dates and locations, visit Orioles.com/HotStove.