Orioles approaching trade deadline decisions

As the trade deadline gets closer, the industry is broken down again among teams that identify as buyers and sellers, and the group that balances on the bubble.

The Orioles knew who they were the last two summers. They acquired starter Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals on Aug. 1, 2023 for minor league second baseman César Prieto, left-hander Drew Rom and right-hander Zack Showalter. They acquired relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto last July in separate trades with the Phillies, starters Zach Eflin from the Rays and Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, and designated hitter Eloy Jiménez from the White Sox. The biggest names surrendered were outfielder Austin Hays and prospects Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers and Seth Johnson.

That bubble was underneath them in 2022, and they played the odds more than other math by dealing first baseman Trey Mancini and closer Jorge López. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias flew into Texas on the last day of the trip to meet with some veterans and offer assurances that there was “a plan in place.”

“It's going exceptionally well,” Elias said that day. “We’ve got a very bright future ahead of us. I don’t want us utilizing the opportunity of the trade deadline the way we did the last couple of days to speak to the fact that this is a team that’s going to have to be reckoned with from now and this point forward in our division. We’re going to have to scout and develop and manage the roster a certain way to maintain it that way. We’ve seen our competitors do that, and we’re there. We’re at that point.

“I think that it's liftoff from here for this team.”

The Orioles won 83 games, defying the prognosticators who didn’t imagine them sniffing .500. They posted 101 victories and won the division in 2023 and 91 wins and the top Wild Card last season, but have endured two playoff sweeps.

So what’s going to happen in about five weeks?

The club is 12 games below .500 and eight back for the last Wild Card after last night’s 7-0 loss that featured seven no-hit innings. An off-day is followed by a three-game series against the Rays at Camden Yards and a road trip to Arlington and Atlanta.

The Orioles are heading south but can go in many directions at the deadline.

1. Be a buyer and bring in another starter, bat or bullpen arm. Maybe one of each. Maybe more. But go for it.

The cost would be more prospects in the system, though the Orioles didn’t have to surrender anyone from the top tier to acquire Eflin. Catcher Samuel Basallo is No. 1 in the system and untouchable. Rival executives would be wasting their time.

2. Be a seller and dangle veterans on expiring contracts.

That group could include Eflin, Domínguez, Soto, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Gary Sánchez, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. Reliever Andrew Kittredge has a $9 million option for 2026.

This strategy can help to restock the farm system. Aim for prospects and try again next season.

3. Stand pat. That’s only happening if the Orioles can get on a hot roll that could melt butter.

This would be an alternative to going full-buyer, believing that the talent is sufficient and trusting that players leaving the injured list in the second half – Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Ryan Mountcastle, Albert Suárez – are better options than what’s out there and don’t come at a cost.

We’ll assume that Suárez is in play. We haven’t gotten an update on him in a long time.

4. Be a buyer and a seller.

It isn’t as weird as it sounds.

The Orioles could, in theory, deal a few of their pending free agents for controllable pieces, the kinds of contracts that made Eflin, Rogers, Domínguez and Soto more appealing last summer. This move isn’t a surrender. The players obtained would be counted on to help with the playoff push. Or Elias would just be conducting business on multiple fronts.

Keep one eye on 2025 and the other on 2026, and try not to get a headache.

Interim manager Tony Mansolino is confronted with a lot of firsts in his new role, and another one is approaching. How to handle a clubhouse with players trying to block out deadline distractions.

Mullins, for example, has spent his entire career in the organization. O’Hearn’s career was revived in Baltimore and he’s expected to make his first All-Star team. They love it here.

Mansolino will gather his players and address the topic.

“I’m already thinking about it,” he said.

“I think for me it’s probably going to come out of the All-Star break. I don’t think it’s appropriate to talk to right now with the guys. I’m trying to avoid team meetings, to be honest with you. I had the one in Milwaukee when I first kind of took over. Because of the state of how things were going at the time, there were multiple team meetings going on at that point, both with staff and players. So just trying to calm things down a little bit and get away from team meetings. But I do see it as an appropriate conversation coming out of the All-Star break, and I’m already starting to kind of work on crafting whatever that message is going to look like. But it’s a part of the business, and kind of with where we’re at.

“The big thing is it can’t be a distraction. It can’t be an excuse. It can’t be something that you lean on. You’ve just got to play. There’s guys all across the league that are going to thrive under those circumstances. And we certainly expect our players to do the same.”