Previewing O's four early picks in MLB Draft

Tonight, the Orioles have a whopping four picks in the top 37 of the MLB Draft. 

Baltimore will select at No. 19, numbers 30 and 31 as compensation for losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander in free agency, and at No. 37, which they acquired in a trade that sent Bryan Baker to the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Years ago, the O’s farm system was seen as the best in baseball, and one of the best that the game has seen in recent memory. Through promotions and trades for big league talent, though, the prospect talent has thinned out. Four high draft picks can certainly change those fortunes. 

While the O’s have had the luxury of the No. 1 overall pick in Adley Rutschman and Jackson Holliday, they haven’t always needed it to select great players. Jordan Westburg was drafted 30th overall, Gunnar Henderson was a second-round pick, and Coby Mayo was a fourth rounder. There’s talent to be found everywhere if you know where to look. 

There is a chance, now with four picks, that the Orioles use one of those selections on a pitcher. The general consensus and chatter throughout the industry, though, seems to be that the O’s will select a position player at No. 19. There haven’t been much tying Baltimore to an arm with their first pick. 

When looking at which position player could come off the board at No. 19, I broke down which traits seem to be most important to Baltimore here: https://masn.me/paujudeq. 

Here’s the spark notes: the top traits that the O’s tend to value are hard contact, a good plate approach, and speed & athleticism, with good exit velocities topping that list. Even Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s scouting reports, a speedy center fielder not known for his power, noted his “sneaky” pop. Vance Honeycutt’s swing-and-miss concerns last year were the first time Baltimore had deviated from their plate approach model. 

Some players that fit the O’s mold, and have frequently been mocked to Baltimore, include Texas A&M OF Jace LaViolette, Golden Spikes Award winner Wehiha Alohy, a shortstop from Arkansas, high school third basemen Xavier Neyens and Gavin Fien, Wake Forest SS Marek Houston, and a pair of Tennessee Volunteers: 1B Andrew Fischer and INF Gavin Kilen. 

LaViolette, Neyens and Fien might be the leaders in the clubhouse.

A center fielder who was once thought of as a possibility for the number one overall pick, LaViolette’s junior season was seen as a bit of a disappointment. His batting average dropped by about 50 points from his sophomore season, and his 18 home runs were a far cry from the 29 he launched the year before. Still, though, the outfielder made strides in his walk and strikeout rates and still finished with an OPS over 1.000. The 6’6 outfielder is a dynamic athlete with some of the best power in the class. 

Neyens presents some of the best raw power in the draft class, too. MLB Pipeline has that power tool graded at a 65 on the 20 to 80 scale, and notes his cannon for an arm at the hot corner. The 18-year-old rarely chases out of the zone, too, a stat that the Orioles have loved to prioritize in the past. 

While Neyens presents some of the best power upside of any high schooler, Fien is seen as a more well-rounded prospect, with every tool grading to at least a 50, according to MLB Pipeline. Similarly to Neyens, Fien had great chase rates, according to the Athletic, and was viewed by many to be the best prep hitter on the circuit. 

Baltimore will more than likely select a hitter with the No. 19 pick, but a pitcher could be selected with one of their four early picks, which would be the highest an arm has been selected in the Mike Elias era. If the O’s do draft an arm, some names to keep an eye on include LSU’s Anthony Eyanson and Louisville’s Patrick Forbes, two guys with big strikeout stuff. 

No, the O’s haven’t selected a pitcher with their first overall pick under Elias. And no, many are anticipating that they will go with a position player once again. But as Matt Blood noted in our conversation, the MLB Draft is not the time to draft for needs at the big league level with just how much lies between a prospect and their major league debut. 

Besides, the strategy of drafting the bats and trading for the arms has helped the O’s acquire talent like Corbin Burnes and Trevor Rogers. Additionally, the rate of success on highly drafted pitchers has been iffy at best over the last decade. In 2020, for example, pitchers like Asa Lacy, Emerson Hancock and Max Meyer were ranked higher than Heston Kjerstad, but none have flashed in the big leagues yet. 

For all of your MLB Draft coverage, be sure to tune into MASN Orioles’ Facebook and YouTube pages tonight, live at approximately pick 15, roughly 7:15. Annie Klaff and I will be with you from the O’s pick at No. 19 through Baltimore’s selection at No. 31. We hope you join us.