Dreading three more years of Soto speculation

At the end of a week that included the latest over-the-top session between agent Scott Boras and reporters at the general managers' meetings in California, a response from Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, another Silver Slugger Award, the prospect of an MVP award coming in a few more days and previously unfathomable dollar figures being thrown out there to suggest what a Juan Soto contract extension might look like, you can't help but be left with one prevailing thought.

Ugh, are we really about to go through this again?

And by "this," we mean three years of constant speculation, consternation and saturation about a star Nationals player's long-term future, either in D.C. or elsewhere.

Didn't we just do this with Anthony Rendon, and to a lesser extent with Stephen Strasburg? And didn't that happen right after we did it with Bryce Harper? Can't we ever get a break around here?

The answer, unfortunately, is no. We're about to go through the wringer yet again, and it's going to be just as agonizing - probably even more so - than the previous ones, because at the moment Soto appears to be an even bigger star than his predecessors.

Nothing against Harper and Rendon, two fantastic players who deserved every penny they got from the Phillies and Angels, respectively. But Soto has done more in his first four seasons with the Nationals than either of those two did, certainly in the consistency department.

And because of that fact, and the fact the Nats are now embarking on their first franchise-altering teardown and rebuild in a decade, there is already way more time being spent on Soto's long-term future than there was on either Harper or Rendon's futures at a comparable point in their careers.

And yet, this still feels so familiar.

Harper won his first MVP award in 2015, his fourth big league season. He was three years away from qualifying for free agency. And already there was regular talk about the Nationals' chances of re-signing him, and speculation about which big-market clubs would get into a bidding war for his services when the time came. (How'd that work out, by the way? Anybody know how Harper looks in Yankee pinstripes or Dodger blue?)

Thumbnail image for Soto-Flips-Helmet-After-K-vs-BAL-Blue-Sidebar.jpgNow here comes Soto, a finalist to win his first MVP award in his fourth big league season, with three years still to go before he can become a free agent. And we're already stressing out over the Nationals' chances of re-signing him and imagining him in other team's colors.

What's it going to cost to keep him? $400 million? $500 million? More? Is it even worth trying to make it happen right now, or should the Nats just concede he's never going to agree to anything until he is free to negotiate with 30 franchises instead of one?

Would the Nationals ever (gasp) consider doing what they couldn't do with Harper or Rendon and trade Soto before he reaches free agency, so they'd actually get a boatload of prospects in return instead of nothing?

Wait, why are we so consumed with this story already? It's three years away from happening!

In some respects, it's testament to the Nationals' ability to acquire (either via the draft or international signing) and then develop the most elite of the elite players in baseball. No other franchise can claim to have produced four superstars in the last decade comparable to Strasburg, Harper, Rendon and Soto. (And you can add Trea Turner to the mix, if you like, even though he was acquired via trade months after he was drafted by the Padres.)

The Nats wouldn't keep finding themselves in this position if they didn't always have homegrown players of this caliber. Of course, they might not find themselves in this position if every one of those homegrown players of such high caliber wasn't represented by Boras, who in spite of his insistence to the contrary, almost always takes his clients to free agency before signing extensions with their original clubs.

How's this all going to play out? Who knows at this point. The Nationals should make Soto a real, record-breaking offer, ideally before opening day 2022, just so it's out there and the pressure is on him to turn it down. And then they should do everything in their power to rebuild their roster into one that can contend again in the near-term, if not the immediate-term.

The goal: Make sure they've got a chance to win another title no later than 2024. At worst, Soto will still be a part of that roster vying for October glory. At best, they'll not only win again, they'll convince him he wants to stay here the rest of his career because the franchise is positioned to keep winning for many more years to come.

But realistically that's all the Nats can do right now. They can't stop the speculation, consternation and saturation from happening. It's going to be there, no matter what. We can only hope it doesn't completely consume everything and everyone at a time when attention should be focused on the more significant task of surrounding Soto with enough talent to turn the club into a winner again.

Until then, try your best to block out the extraneous nonsense. A new pair of noise-canceling headphones should do the trick.




Looking at Nats' organizational depth chart
Soto named National League Silver Slugger
 

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