First offseason edition: Several questions for O's fans

rutschman v CWS

It's about that time. A time when I ask the readers here a few Orioles questions and get your input. Answer one question or all of them. Provide short answers or long ones. Respond to what other readers have to say.

It's not a quiz and won't be graded.

There are no right or wrong answers.

If you cannot participate today there will be other chances before Opening Day for similar blogs here.

Now, today's questions.

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Can we read anything into how the 2024 postseason played out?

Rutschman, McCann, Burnes

The 2024 baseball season ended Wednesday night, when the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the New York Yankees 7-6 to win the World Series four games to one.

Last year the World Series was a matchup of wild card teams with No. 5 seed Texas beating No. 6 seed Arizona for the WS championship.

In 2023, there were three teams that won 100 games or more. The Atlanta Braves won 104, the Orioles won 101 and the Los Angeles Dodgers won 100.

None of those teams won a single playoff series. In fact between the three teams, they won one playoff game. The O’s and Dodgers were swept in the Division Series.

Fans were wondering if winning your division and getting a five-day layoff, was working against those teams. This year, teams had no such problems.

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Acquired in July, Zach Eflin could head up the 2025 O's rotation

Zach Eflin

It might have been, on the one hand, an indication that the new O’s ownership group might spend more on player salaries moving forward when they added a pitcher in July that is signed for $18 million in 2025.

Not only did the Orioles give up three top 30 prospects when they acquired right-hander Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay on July 26, but they took on that salary for next season as well.

Eflin pitched quite well in nine O’s starts in the regular season and one more in the postseason. Right now, he is likely the No. 1 pitcher in a rotation that might be adding a pitcher or two over the winter and one that looks to get Grayson Rodriguez back as a full go when 2025 begins. A rotation that could see free agent Corbin Burnes signed for $200 million or more elsewhere leaving the club a draft pick, but a hole at the top of the starting five.

No one is saying Eflin is the equal of Burnes, but he was close to that since the start of 2023.

In that two-season span, Eflin has made 59 starts, going 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In the same two-season span, Burnes has gone 25-17 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.

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Is this one way the O's offense could take a step forward next season?

Anthony Santander

We’re kind of just thinking out loud here today. But as the Orioles look to win more games and get back on top of the American League East next season, I believe changing or making some slight alterations to how the Orioles do business could be helpful moving forward.

Over the next few weeks, I will take a look in this space at some ways that could happen. 

Less aggressiveness on two-strike counts

Going back several years when I started hearing about and writing about the O’s working hard to make better swing decisions on the farm, I reported that this means essentially that a hitter does not shorten his swing with two strikes.

The thinking was, always put your best swing on the ball and try to drive it. In all counts. Shortening up the swing to just make contact works against that.

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In Baltimore, Mountain time returns in 2025

Felix Bautista

The last two Octobers, the Orioles have gone 0-5 in playoff games and three of those were decided by one run. A clutch hit here or a clutch out there might have made the difference.

The O’s did not have Félix Bautista available for any of those games in the late innings. He last pitched for the Orioles on Aug. 25, 2023 and had Tommy John surgery in October of 2023.

But in 2025, Mountain time returns in Baltimore.

It’s like they signed or added an All-Star reliever. Bautista was a 2023 All-Star, and that year finished 11th in the AL Cy Young voting.

Now, knock on wood, he should be a full go from the first day of spring training in February. At that point he will be 16 months removed from his procedure.

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Random take Tuesday

Aaron Judge

Game 1 of the 2024 World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees was seen by 15.2 million viewers on Fox television.

That number was up 62 percent from last year’s Game 1 when 9.35 million watched the Diamondbacks and Rangers. It was the most-watched World Series opening game since Astros-Dodgers was seen by 15.33 million in 2017.

A Baseball America article called the audience “massive” and noted that often the World Series total average viewership for the series exceeds the Game 1 number.

Said BA: “While 2016’s 22.8 million average viewership is unlikely to be exceeded, an average of 15 million viewers would blow away any recent World Series. Last year’s Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series averaged an all-time low 9.1 million viewers per game, and there hasn’t been a World Series to top 12 million in average viewership since 2019. A 15-million average viewership would rank as the third highest since 2010, which is impressive given TV viewership for anything but football has dwindled dramatically in the past decade-plus thanks to the demise of cable TV and the rise of streaming services and social media.”

According to Sports Media Watch, Game 2 on Saturday averaged 13.44 million viewers on FOX (13.8 million across all Fox Sports platforms). That was the largest audience for Game 2 since Dodgers-Red Sox in 2018 (13.51M) and a 65% increase from last year’s record-low 8.15 million for Diamondbacks-Rangers.

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The O's much-improved international program hit some high notes recently

Samuel Basallo MLB Futures Game

It has been true for quite a while now. While catcher Samuel Basallo is the shining star of the Orioles surging and improved international program, he is not the only possible future big league talent on the horizon.

On the MLBPipeline.com Orioles top 30 prospects list right now there is a whopping 13 international players, a high mark since Mike Elias and his staff took over in November of 2018.

Not long after, in January of 2019, Koby Perez was hired as senior director, international scouting. Now with the club for six years, in October of 2023, Perez was promoted to his latest role as vice president, international scouting and operations.

He has presided over four international signing classes. In January of 2021, the O’s signed their first two international amateurs to bonuses of at least a million dollars in Basallo and Maikol Hernandez. They now have five players that have signed for a million or more.

The latest examples that the O’s international program is becoming a bigger force came this month via Baseball America.

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Pitching injuries: Easy to discuss, hard to solve

Kyle Bradish white

Well I was not there and only saw a brief story or two on Tony Clark’s comments about use of pitchers. They were made at the World Series before the opening game on Friday.

Clark is the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association.

"The conversations that we've had with our players have suggested that unless or until you draw a line in the sand and force change, that the decision-makers on any one particular team are going to continue to make the decisions that they're making, which is have pitchers' - starting and relievers - max effort for the period of time that they can have them," Clark said at Dodger Stadium. “As soon as they seem to run out of gas, as the data suggests that they're going to, recycle them out and (move) to burn out another pitcher."

Because I have not seen many other quotes from Clark on this topic, I am not sure how he sees teams burning out pitchers. It is certainly not from use. Most starters are held often to about 100 pitches and teams pull starters often when they reach the third time through the batting order. Only four MLB pitchers even threw as much as 200 innings in 2024. Relievers are often held to one inning and seldom pitch more than two days in a row.

From this standpoint, teams are trying to protect pitchers and their investments in them.

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Free agent predictions begin with whopper deals projected for Burnes and Santander

burnes v DET

Five days after the end of the World Series, which began last night, teams can sign free agents. It could be an active winter for the Orioles, who have two key free agents of their own hitting the market.

They are right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes and right fielder Anthony Santander. Both are almost certain to get qualifying offers from the Orioles, which would net the team a draft pick if they leave and sign elsewhere.

The consensus opinions seem to be that Burnes is almost certain to leave while the O’s may have at least an outside shot at retaining Santander.

But if that were to come at the price from one prediction this week, I can’t see that happening.

Former big league general manager Jim Bowden predicted who top 45 free agents will be, where they end up and at what price in The Athletic this week (subscription may be required).

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A big market World Series filled with stars is set to begin (plus World Series facts)

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge

On the one hand, some complained about a lack of star-power last year when No. 5 seed Texas played No. 6 seed Arizona in a World Series matchup featuring teams that played in the Wild Card round.

This year is very different.

For just the fifth time since 1995, the World Series features the winningest clubs in each league. It is the first World Series pitting the major markets of New York and Los Angeles since 1981.

While some fans may not be excited about a Yankees-Dodgers matchup, the ratings figure to be good, maybe great. Last year’s five-game World Series with the Rangers and Diamondbacks was the least watched with an average audience of 9.08 million viewers.

According to a Forbes article, the TV ratings have been mostly good this year.

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Then there may be one: The trio of veteran O's outfielders is shrinking

Cedric Mullins

During spring training, I asked O's center fielder Cedric Mullins to ponder a possibility. And that was that the 2024 season could be the last together for the trio of Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander. 

We knew then that Santander would be a free agent at the end of the season. We didn’t know then that Hays would be traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in July. The gang is already broken up.

On Opening Day next year, it’s possible that Mullins will stand alone. Hays is gone and Santander could be next.

“It’s has definitely popped into my head, that this could be the last go around,” Mullins told me during that March 2024 interview. “At the same time, we want this to be the best one if that is the case. We know how the business works. It is what it is. There is always that hope, that possibility that we stick around for the long haul. But if that is the case, let’s go out with a bang," said Mullins.

Winning 10 fewer games and winning none in the postseason is not what Mullins had in mind then.

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Yep, once again talking about the Orioles on offense

Gunnar Henderson

Early this month, not long after the Orioles were eliminated from the American League playoffs by the Kansas City Royals, I expressed an opinion about the Orioles offense.

An offense that produced solid stats over the full season but fell off big time late in the year.

One way to break it down is with facts and going through a period where it was really good and then going through the period when it was not.

Through July 31, the Orioles were 65-44 (.596) with the third-best record in the majors. They were on a 97-win pace. In those 109 games, or 67 percent of the season, they scored 5.07 runs per game (third in MLB) and posted an OPS of .774 (first in MLB).

So, a top three record and offense.

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Random take Tuesday

Shohei Ohtani vs. NYY

Jumping around the baseball world with a few random notes and takes.

Well at least this year the narrative that the top teams don’t win in baseball and that it’s hard to have a five-day layoff before the playoffs for division winners, were blown all to heck.

We need a new narrative!

Last year wild card teams played in the World Series when No. 5 seed Texas beat No. 6 seed Arizona.

This year’s matchup is the top-seed New York Yankees from the American League and No. 1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers from the National League.

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Another club option decision for the O's: Reliever Seranthony Domínguez

Seranthony Dominguez

The Orioles have some important roster decisions coming soon. Within five days of the end of the World Series they have to decide if they will pick up club options for 2025 on a few players to include reliever Seranthony Domínguez.

It comes down to a $7.5 million dollar decision. He’ll get $8 million if they pick up his option and a $500,000 buyout if they do not.

Looking at his overall numbers for 2024, where Domínguez went 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 58 2/3 innings with a career-high 1.8 homers allowed per nine, you might say do not pick up this option at that price.

On the other hand, he was better with the Orioles than Phillies despite still giving up a lot of home runs and provides another big bullpen arm in the late innings to join returning Félix Bautista. The O’s are hopeful Bautista will be his old self but bringing back Domínguez could provide some buffer. And added depth.

The O’s added Domínguez and since departed outfielder Cristian Pache from the Phillies for outfielder Austin Hays on July 26.

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Another take on O's winning baseball from back in the day

camden yards

When I wrote about the Orioles' success in the early years of the American League Championship Series, in this story on Friday, it was a fun story to do.

It reminded me of my youth and falling in love with this sport watching the likes of Brooks, Cakes, Frank and Boog. Earl Weaver was there to run the show and fire us all up. Four 20-game winners, four World Series appearances in six years from 1966 through 1971.

The young tyke wearing his school tie heading off each morning to St. Michael’s in Fullerton was excited to talk about the Orioles with his classmates. Maybe my first version of taking calls on the Orioles! With no commercial breaks!

In 1960, the Orioles, who of course played for the first time in Baltimore in 1954, had their first winning season. They won 89 games but were eight games out. The 1964 club won 97 and finished two games out. Remember, the teams with the best records in the American and National leagues went straight to the World Series back then. The 1966 Birds, now with Frank Robinson on the club, won 97 games and then swept the favored Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, pitching shutouts in games two, three and four.

It was the first of three WS wins for the Orioles to also include 1970 and 1983. 

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O'Hearn's club option: Pricey or reasonable for that level of production?

o'hearn batting gray

The Orioles acquired Ryan O’Hearn from the Kansas City Royals on Jan. 3, 2023 for cash considerations. And now, whether he remains an Oriole in 2025, will have a lot to do with how they consider using their cash.

He has a $8.0 million dollar club option for next season. It was originally $7.5 million but that could expand by $500,000 if he exceeded 120 games played, which he did at 142.

On the one hand, some might consider that pricey after he played for $3.5 million last season, an amount that was settled in February to avoid an arbitration hearing. On the other hand is it that pricey for a key player who took 76 percent of his plate appearances in the 2024 season by hitting either third or fourth?

It's a decision the club must make within five days of the end of the World Series. 

He's a middle-of-the-order bat on a team with an above-average major league offense.

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Remembering the Orioles' dominance in the early days of the AL Championship Series

Robinson, Belanger, Johnson and Powell pose for picture

There was a time in Major League Baseball when there were no divisions – just the American League and National League. The two winners “won the pennant” and went to the World Series.

In MLB, the first “modern” World Series was in 1903 and one team from each league would play in the World Series through the 1968 season.

But that all changed in 1969 – the beginning of divisional play in baseball and now there was an AL East and AL West, same in the National League. Now four teams would make the playoffs. Now for the first time ever there would an American League Championship Series. It was a best-of-five series. That changed when it became best-of-seven in 1985.

The Orioles played in, hosted and won, the first AL Championship Series game on Oct. 4, 1969 at Memorial Stadium. Led by Earl Weaver, they beat manager Billy Martin’s Minnesota Twins 4-3 in 12 innings and went on to a three-game sweep.

In that first-ever ALCS contest, lefty Mike Cuellar (23-11) started for Baltimore and Jim Perry (20-6) for the Twins, who sported a lineup featuring Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva.

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Do home runs play in the postseason?

Cedric Mullins

Will a team be slugging their way to a World Series title over the next couple of weeks. Do home runs now play well in the playoffs?

For years a narrative was that teams that hit a lot of homers won’t in the playoffs and that type of offense won’t work.

Are the 2024 Orioles evidence of that. They finished second in the majors in homers this year but hit just one and lost two games to Kansas City scoring one run on that homer.

But other slugging teams are winning and have won. The 2023 Texas Rangers finished the 2023 regular season third in the majors in homers and OPS (.790) and runs per game at 5.44.

On their way to the World Series, they swept the Orioles three straight out-homered them 5-3 in that series. For the postseason Texas hit 30 homers in 17 games, produced a .792 OPS and averaged 5.70 runs per game. They put up big offense during the year and in the postseason too. Their postseason team ERA was a respectable 3.83 and sure you are going to need some solid pitching too.

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Rodriguez's last 33 starts have been pretty solid

Grayson Rodriguez

As the Orioles didn’t win as much in the final months of the season, the focus was often on the offense which was not performing at earlier levels.

But also, during those last two months and the in the postseason the team was without a key rotation pitcher (several of course) in right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.

Up until he got scratched for a start Aug. 6 at Toronto right before game time, he was having a pretty solid season. And I will post some stats later that make it look like he is trending toward becoming a top-of-rotation starter. Maybe Rodriguez will turn out to be that next ace the organization drafted, developed and produced.

His last start this season was July 31 and then he was out with right lat/teres discomfort, a similar injury that cost him three months on the farm during 2022. The O’s were hopeful he would get back late in the year, but he didn’t make it. He is expected to be a 100 percent full go to start 2025.

Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 20 starts in 2024. In 116 2/3 innings he posted a 1.243 WHIP with a 2.8 walks per nine and 10.0 strikeouts.

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To issue a (intentional) walk or not, that is the question

Brandon Hyde

It came up again during Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round playoffs when the Orioles hosted the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles, who issue some of the fewest intentional walks in the majors, had a chance to walk Bobby Witt Jr. with a base open in a key spot.

They pitched to Witt with a man on third and two outs in the top of the sixth of a 0-0 game. Witt singled to left off Corbin Burnes to score the game’s only run as Kansas City beat the Orioles 1-0 and they were halfway to a series win.

Witt batted the next day with runners on first and third and two outs in the sixth of a 1-1 tie. This time he singled in a go-ahead run again. There was a base open here – just not first-base – so that would have been a real unconventional intentional walk to load the bases, but it was there if the O’s wanted it.

The O’s were not beat in that series because they pitched to Witt, it was more about scoring one run in two games. But when you are not scoring, every run against you seems magnified.

I would have walked Witt in that spot in Game 1.

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