Roki Sasaki will likely make a big impact for some MLB team, but at a small initial price

Roki Sasaki during the World Baseball Classic

Over the weekend, an announcement that Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted by his current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines to come to the MLB in 2025, put a top pitcher out there that some team will get at a real bargain price.

Because at age 23, Sasaki is too young to qualify to be signed as a “foreign professional” and he instead will be signed, per MLB rules, as an “international amateur” meaning he will be signed as a minor league free agent.

He cannot be given a massive contract per the rules. In fact, while Corbin Burnes may sign for $200 million or more, it's possible that Sasaki could actually get $2 million or less.  

If Sasaki is posted very soon, he could be signed by Dec. 15, the last day for teams to sign international amateurs during this current signing period. If that were the case, the Orioles, per the Associated Press, have the second-highest pool amount remaining right now to sign such players.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the top remaining international pool amount at $2,502,500 with the Orioles next at $2,147,300 followed by the New York Yankees at $1,487,200 and then San Francisco at $1,247,500.

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O's Colton Cowser is finalist for BBWAA AL Rookie of the Year award

cowser @ BOS

With one American League rookie award secured already, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser tonight was named a finalist for the Baseball Writers’ Association of America's American League Rookie of the Year award for 2024.

The other finalists are both Yankees: pitcher Luis Gil and catcher Austin Wells. The award winner will be announced a week from tonight, on Nov. 18.

The O's had no other finalists for the four major awards. 

Should Cowser win the BBWAA award, the Orioles will get a bonus draft pick for next summer. The Orioles got a Prospect Promotion Incentive selection this past July after Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year. And with that pick, No. 32 overall, they selected University of Virginia infielder Griff O’Ferrall.

If Cowser wins next week, this will be the first time the Orioles have had back-to-back BBWAA Rookie of the Year winners.

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O's Mike Elias talked about the club's needs during the GM meetings

Orioles GM Mike Elias

The baseball offseason is about to really heat up. Some big name free agents like Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras will meet with teams this week to get the ball rolling.

There seemed to be a glacial pace of free agency last year and maybe it all moves faster this time around. The Winter Meetings are in early December.

The general manager meetings were last week in San Antonio which gave all teams a chance to begin to lay groundwork for the next few weeks and months in talking with other teams and with player agents.

During an interview on MLB Network, O’s executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias discussed the club’s top priorities this winter.

“Well, we’ve got a really strong core returning,” said Elias. “We’ve got a young nucleus that I’d stack up there with any in baseball and that’s a good place to start. I think we have a lot of good rotation pieces and bullpen guys coming back. But we definitely are looking to augment the roster and add to the team.

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O's fans will be watching to see if the Yankees lose a big free agent fish

Juan Soto

As the MLB free agent process plays out this winter, Orioles fans will be watching closely to see what their team does. They may also be watching a player from another team closely.

What Oriole fan would not be happy to see Juan Soto leave the New York Yankees? Even if he wound up with another team in the American League East, it would badly hurt the current division champs.

The New York offense seemed like a two-man show at times in 2024 and any O’s fan would be happy to see that as a one-man show next year.

Soto had a monster year on offense, batting .288/.419/.569/.989 with 31 doubles, four triples, 41 homers and 109 RBIs. His OPS ranked third in the majors and was his best since posting a .999 for the Nats in 2021.

He is the rare player who walked (129) more than he struck out (119), posting an 18.1 walk percentage.

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Potential O's free agent target: Lefty pitcher Max Fried

Generic-Gates

If the Orioles lose right-hander Corbin Burnes via free agency, they could turn to free agency to find his replacement, or at least find someone that is in his class of pitchers.

They are not in abundance but there are a few available in this free agent class. A list that includes lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 next Opening Day.

A former first-round MLB Draft pick, Fried has never pitched for anyone save Atlanta. But if they didn’t sign him to an extension by now, there is an assumption that he will be pitching elsewhere in 2025.

MLBTradeRumors.com listed numerous clubs that could make a play for Fried, including the Orioles. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman said he will get looks from American League East clubs including the Orioles, Toronto and Boston, and that the Yankees have already “checked in” on him. So where are the Rays?

MLB Trade Rumors also listed the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers as possible destinations for Fried. And the outlet noted that six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age 31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Zach Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester).

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Potential O's free agent target: Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

It is the time of year where free agency in baseball takes center stage in the sport. Free agents can now sign with any club and it may not be long before some players do sign with new clubs.

It can be an exciting time of the year for fans – they track which players will the O's pursue, which players can they actually add and which players will they actually add?

Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll present information on this blog about some free agents. Not because we feel the team should sign them or will, but because they make sense as an O’s target. None of this means they will end up here as all 30 teams have a shot at these players.

Right now, money talks and other things, I hear, walk.

If the Orioles do lose free agent Anthony Santander to another club, they could replace him with another free agent corner outfielder in righty-hitter Teoscar Hernández.

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Orioles set Birdland Member Select-A-Seat event for Nov. 16

Camden Yards Opening Day generic

Coming off a season that produced the Orioles' biggest attendance increase in nine years, the club is holding an event soon to invite more fans to purchase tickets for games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The O’s will host a Birdland Member Select-A-Seat event on Saturday, Nov. 16 from 10 a.m. to noon at the ballpark in downtown Baltimore.

The event is open to the public for fans interested in purchasing a 2025 Birdland Membership or Suite Package. Fans can choose their Oriole Park seat location and learn about the benefits of becoming a Birdland member.

Those interested can RSVP at Orioles.com/SelectASeat. The deadline to RSVP for this event is Nov. 14 at 6 p.m.

Once someone RSVPs, an O’s ticket rep will reach out to confirm their participation and provide more details regarding the event.

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For the Orioles, the window to win is open and should stay that way

Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson

Even in going 0-5 in the last two postseasons, one thing that must be of some comfort for Orioles fans moving forward is that their team should be good again. Both in 2025 and likely for years beyond that.

The Orioles' window to win, as they call it, seems wide open and vast.

The current group plus players that get added should make another run next season and maybe for several years after that.

But having a large window does not mean you will win a championship. It would seem likely to increase the odds, said Captain Obvious. But the Captain also noted that when the Dodgers won this year it was just their second title since 1988, and one came in a shortened season. That is a span of 36 years. In losing the World Series, the Yankees are now without a championship since 2009. That is 0-for-the-last-15 years even though they made 11 playoff appearances in that time.

It's hard to win it all, no matter how good your team is.

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Looking at several free agent predictions for Santander and Burnes

Anthony Santander

If we are to believe various free agent predictions, to re-sign pitcher Corbin Burnes, the Orioles are going to need to fork out around $200 million dollars, maybe more. 

Five outlets – MLBTradeRumors.com, ESPN, FanGraphs.com, and two from The Athletic – all predict Burnes gets a seven-year contract. That would take him through his age 36 season. On the low end, FanGraphs has Burnes getting $196 million and on the high end $247 by Jim Bowden of The Athletic. Several outlets ranked Burnes as the No. 2 free agent behind Juan Soto.

Soto’s projections by the way range from 12 years and $540 million to 15 years and $622 million. But you get a shuffle with that remember. 

That brings us to O's outfielder Anthony Santander for which we see a wide range of predictions. On the low end, ESPN predicts a three-year deal for $69 million. MLBTradeRumors.com goes with four years and $80 million. FanGraphs has him getting five years and $100 million while The Athletic goes with five years and $105 million. Jim Bowden has it six years and $142 million.

That is some range – from $69 to $142 million. The low-end predictions here seem to be in the Orioles wheelhouse, and I would imagine are very doable for the club. But would the Orioles go five years and $100 million for a player that ranked third in the majors with 44 homers?

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The O's pen from the left side without Danny Coulombe and a few other thoughts

Danny Coulombe

Yep, surprising news indeed. Of the five players the O’s held contract options on for the 2025 season, most would have guessed one they surely would bring back at $4 million for next year is lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. 

He’s been a reliable high-leverage reliever for two years for this team. A 2.12 ERA in 2024 and an ERA of 2.56 and WHIP of 0.951 in 94 games in two seasons for the Orioles.

But while the club picked up contract options yesterday on pitchers Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez and position player Ryan O’Hearn, they declined Coulombe’s option.

Why do that?

We didn’t get to interview anyone yet on this decision so we can only guess at the club’s thinking. Coulombe missed a big chuck of this past season, from June 11 to Sept. 20 after a left elbow procedure to remove bone chips. Now at 35, is there concern about that – also that this was his second career elbow procedure in addition to his 2022 hip surgery?

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O's pick up 2025 contract options on three players, but decline option for Danny Coulombe (updated twice)

Danny Coulombe

The Orioles have picked up 2025 contract options on first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn, lefty reliever Cionel Pérez and righty reliever Seranthony Domínguez. But in a surprise move, they declined the $4 million 2025 contract option on lefty reliever Danny Coulombe.

The club today also made the procedural move of reinstating pitchers Félix Bautista, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells and infielder Jorge Mateo from the 60-day injured list. 

Coulombe has been a dependable reliever for the club since they acquired him just ahead of Opening Day 2023 from the Twins for cash considerations. But now he officially becomes a free agent where he could re-sign with the Orioles or sign with any other club. 

Perhaps the team has injury concerns here as Coulombe was on the injured list last year from June 11-Sept. 20 as he underwent a procedure to remove bone chips from his left elbow.

But he finished the year throwing 3 2/3 scoreless over four games and pitched 0.2 innings scoreless in the playoffs.

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O's Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are Silver Slugger finalists

henderson celebrates white

An Orioles offense that ranked second in the American League and fourth in the majors in runs per game in 2024, has produced three Silver Slugger finalists in Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg.

The Orioles are also up for the American League offensive team of the year. Their batters did slump in the second half and scored just one run in two playoff games.

Henderson is a finalist at the shortstop position, Santander in the outfield and Westburg for a utility spot.

The finalists for the Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Award are voted on by MLB managers and coaches. Winners will be announced on MLB Network on Tuesday, Nov. 12.

Henderson and Adley Rutschman won Silver Slugger awards last year. Santander is a finalist for the third straight year and Westburg is a finalist for the first time.

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To platoon or not, that is the question. Should O's alter their approach?

Ryan Mountcastle

When I wrote this blog last week, it was a blog that, as I said then, where I was just thinking out loud about ways the Orioles could make small improvements in 2025 in how they do business.

This is not about the makeup of the roster so much, about adding or subtracting players, but about how the Orioles employ the players they do have.

That earlier blog made suggestions that the Orioles could potentially do themselves some good in being less aggressive in two-strike counts. More balls in play may be needed, even at the expensive of slugging pitches in such counts.

It is just one man’s opinion.

Same guy with a new opinion today.

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Two finalists, but no Orioles win a Gold Glove this year

Ryan Mountcastle

With just two Gold Glove winners since the 2015 season, the Orioles will not add to that total this year. The Orioles had two finalists with Ryan Mountcastle at first base and Colton Cowser in left field, but neither won the Rawlings Gold Glove when the winners were announced tonight during a live ESPN broadcast.

Minnesota’s Carlos Santana won at first base and Nathaniel Lowe of Texas was the third finalist at that spot for the American League. Cleveland’s Steven Kwan won in left field for the third year in a row in the AL and the Yankees' Alex Verdugo was the third left field finalist.

The last time the Orioles had more than one Gold Glove winner was in 2014 when J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones were winners. Manny Machado was a solo O's winner in 2015 and Ramón Urías won at third base in 2022. Urías was the last Oriole to win the Gold Glove.

Baltimore’s 72 Gold Gloves since the award’s inception in 1957 are second-most all-time behind St. Louis with 98.

Had Cowser won the award and then later this month added the Baseball Writers' Association of America AL Rookie of the Year award, he would have been the first to win both since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.

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First offseason edition: Several questions for O's fans

rutschman v CWS

It's about that time. A time when I ask the readers here a few Orioles questions and get your input. Answer one question or all of them. Provide short answers or long ones. Respond to what other readers have to say.

It's not a quiz and won't be graded.

There are no right or wrong answers.

If you cannot participate today there will be other chances before Opening Day for similar blogs here.

Now, today's questions.

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Can we read anything into how the 2024 postseason played out?

Rutschman, McCann, Burnes

The 2024 baseball season ended Wednesday night, when the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the New York Yankees 7-6 to win the World Series four games to one.

Last year the World Series was a matchup of wild card teams with No. 5 seed Texas beating No. 6 seed Arizona for the WS championship.

In 2023, there were three teams that won 100 games or more. The Atlanta Braves won 104, the Orioles won 101 and the Los Angeles Dodgers won 100.

None of those teams won a single playoff series. In fact between the three teams, they won one playoff game. The O’s and Dodgers were swept in the Division Series.

Fans were wondering if winning your division and getting a five-day layoff, was working against those teams. This year, teams had no such problems.

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Acquired in July, Zach Eflin could head up the 2025 O's rotation

Zach Eflin

It might have been, on the one hand, an indication that the new O’s ownership group might spend more on player salaries moving forward when they added a pitcher in July that is signed for $18 million in 2025.

Not only did the Orioles give up three top 30 prospects when they acquired right-hander Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay on July 26, but they took on that salary for next season as well.

Eflin pitched quite well in nine O’s starts in the regular season and one more in the postseason. Right now, he is likely the No. 1 pitcher in a rotation that might be adding a pitcher or two over the winter and one that looks to get Grayson Rodriguez back as a full go when 2025 begins. A rotation that could see free agent Corbin Burnes signed for $200 million or more elsewhere leaving the club a draft pick, but a hole at the top of the starting five.

No one is saying Eflin is the equal of Burnes, but he was close to that since the start of 2023.

In that two-season span, Eflin has made 59 starts, going 26-17 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In the same two-season span, Burnes has gone 25-17 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.

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Is this one way the O's offense could take a step forward next season?

Anthony Santander

We’re kind of just thinking out loud here today. But as the Orioles look to win more games and get back on top of the American League East next season, I believe changing or making some slight alterations to how the Orioles do business could be helpful moving forward.

Over the next few weeks, I will take a look in this space at some ways that could happen. 

Less aggressiveness on two-strike counts

Going back several years when I started hearing about and writing about the O’s working hard to make better swing decisions on the farm, I reported that this means essentially that a hitter does not shorten his swing with two strikes.

The thinking was, always put your best swing on the ball and try to drive it. In all counts. Shortening up the swing to just make contact works against that.

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In Baltimore, Mountain time returns in 2025

Felix Bautista

The last two Octobers, the Orioles have gone 0-5 in playoff games and three of those were decided by one run. A clutch hit here or a clutch out there might have made the difference.

The O’s did not have Félix Bautista available for any of those games in the late innings. He last pitched for the Orioles on Aug. 25, 2023 and had Tommy John surgery in October of 2023.

But in 2025, Mountain time returns in Baltimore.

It’s like they signed or added an All-Star reliever. Bautista was a 2023 All-Star, and that year finished 11th in the AL Cy Young voting.

Now, knock on wood, he should be a full go from the first day of spring training in February. At that point he will be 16 months removed from his procedure.

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Random take Tuesday

Aaron Judge

Game 1 of the 2024 World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees was seen by 15.2 million viewers on Fox television.

That number was up 62 percent from last year’s Game 1 when 9.35 million watched the Diamondbacks and Rangers. It was the most-watched World Series opening game since Astros-Dodgers was seen by 15.33 million in 2017.

A Baseball America article called the audience “massive” and noted that often the World Series total average viewership for the series exceeds the Game 1 number.

Said BA: “While 2016’s 22.8 million average viewership is unlikely to be exceeded, an average of 15 million viewers would blow away any recent World Series. Last year’s Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series averaged an all-time low 9.1 million viewers per game, and there hasn’t been a World Series to top 12 million in average viewership since 2019. A 15-million average viewership would rank as the third highest since 2010, which is impressive given TV viewership for anything but football has dwindled dramatically in the past decade-plus thanks to the demise of cable TV and the rise of streaming services and social media.”

According to Sports Media Watch, Game 2 on Saturday averaged 13.44 million viewers on FOX (13.8 million across all Fox Sports platforms). That was the largest audience for Game 2 since Dodgers-Red Sox in 2018 (13.51M) and a 65% increase from last year’s record-low 8.15 million for Diamondbacks-Rangers.

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