We could call it a “two tiered” Orioles rotation at this point. They have two at the top right now in right-handers Zack Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez and three that follow that in some order.

As of today, Eflin or Rodriguez could get the Opening Day assignment with the other starting second.

Third through fifth in some combo, is expected to be Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That is how I stack it as of today, Kremer, Sugano and Morton fifth. Others may project Morton at No. 3 or Sugano at No. 3. Lot of options here. No lefties in this rotation, but they are in the depth behind this group currently with pitchers like southpaws Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers. Could one of that duo impact the Opening Day five? Of course, it’s baseball, changes and injuries happen. Always write your plans in January in pencil with a big eraser close by.

The Orioles hopes for Eflin are likely big. In 2023 he pitched to an ERA of 3.50 with 16 wins for Tampa Bay and finished sixth for the AL Cy Young award. Traded to the Orioles on July 26 last summer for three minor leaguers, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA over nine starts.

With a combined 3.54 ERA and 1.054 WHIP the past two seasons producing an ERA+ of 115, he will be expected to pitch to that form for the 2025 Orioles.

Let’s get this part straight. Right-hander Charlie Morton is not the replacement for losing Corbin Burnes. Neither is righty Tomoyuki Sugano. No one is saying they are. No one is hinting at it or suggesting it in any way.

The Orioles may still add a pitcher they can slot closer to the top of their rotation and based on comments here, that would be welcome.

Nothing they have done in the last few days precludes that from happening. In my mind, maybe you have a different take, that is just as likely to happen today as it was before the Morton signing.

Where I think some fans slanting toward the negative over the Morton are missing the boat, is this addition could help the 2025 Orioles. No matter who slots at the top of their rotation.

Yes, he turned 41 in November and was the fourth-oldest pitcher in the majors last year. He’s also pitched to a 3.92 ERA since 2023, throwing 328 2/3 innings. No O’s pitcher on the team in those seasons, pitched that many innings. Even those in their 20s. His ERA for those seasons tops that of Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez, both at 4.11 for the 2023-2024 seasons.

In this space yesterday I noted that Ryan Mountcastle would be expected to hit more home runs in 2025 as the Orioles are moving the left field fence closer to home plate at Camden Yards. This is after three years after they had moved the wall back nearly 30 feet from its original position.

Mountcastle hit 22 home runs in Baltimore during the 2021 season, the last one with the previous dimensions. He averaged a homer at Camden Yards every 12.77 at-bats that year. But then he hit just 28 total home homers from 2022 through 2024, hitting one every 24.86 at-bats.

I wondered how the entire team was impacted by the year-to-year home homer numbers.

Here are the stats on that from 2021 on:

Actually, the O’s got closer to their 2021 home stats each year, almost equaling them last season when the team hit 235 homers for the season, second-most in the major leagues to the Yankees' 237.

Today a look at a few more notes and items we can expect to see during the 2025 season.

The return of this pitcher: The No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez should return as a full-time member of the Baltimore rotation.

In 2024, he made what turned out to be his last start on July 31. He was scheduled to pitch Aug. 6 in the series opener at Rogers Centre in Toronto but was scratched just minutes before first pitch with what was later described as right lat/teres discomfort.

Getting this now 25-year-old right-hander back is a big lift for the rotation, which loses ace righty Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez went 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA over 20 starts and the Orioles went 14-6 in those games.

He gave up two earned runs or less 14 times. And if you could take away his two worst starts last year, where he allowed seven runs each time, he would have finished the season with an ERA of 3.02.

Now that 2025 has arrived on the calendar, can the baseball season be that far behind?

It will be here sooner than we think, with spring training arriving next month, the first spring game set for Feb. 22 and Opening Day 2025 scheduled for March 27 with the Orioles at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Here are a few things to ponder and look forward to during this coming season.

The filling out of the roster: Will the O’s add a front-line starting pitcher? If they add someone or more than one, does that happen via free agency or via a trade?

Last season it was not until Feb. 1 that the deal for Corbin Burnes was announced.

With right-hander Corbin Burnes off to Arizona and no ace pitchers still to be had via free agency, the Orioles may have pivoted toward a pitcher who made nine appearances for them in the 2023 season and one more in that postseason.

That is 29-year-old right-hander Jack Flaherty, coming off a strong 2024 season that began with Detroit and ended with him getting a ring with the Los Angeles Dodgers, his hometown team.

Per The Athletic, “both sides would be open to a reunion after Flaherty’s bounce-back season.”

Between the two clubs last year, he made 28 starts throwing 162 innings – the second-most of his career. He went 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.068 WHIP. He posted strong walk and strikeout numbers, walking 2.1 per every nine innings (a 5.9 percent walk rate) and fanning 10.8 (29.9 percent).

Among qualified pitchers last year (the 58 that had 162 or more innings) he finished third in the majors in strikeouts/nine, tied for eighth in WHIP, tied for 13^th in batting average against (.223) and 13^th in MLB in ERA.

Some projections when free agency was just beginning had outfielder Anthony Santander getting $100 million and maybe more whenever he signs his next contract.

Free to sign with any team, Santander is still out there for any club to sign, but maybe some recent deals provide a framework for his next one.

As free agency opened up, MLBTradeRumors.com projected that Santander, ranked as its No. 9 free agent, would get a four-year deal for $80 million. ESPN projected he would sign for three years and $69 million. FanGraphs.com predicted five years for $100 million and The Athletic put it at five years and $105 million.

An Oriole since the 2016 Rule 5 draft and for parts of eight big league seasons, Santander is expected to sign elsewhere, especially after the Orioles added outfielder Tyler O’Neill via free agency.

For his 2024 season on offense, Santander hit .235/.308/.506/.814 with 25 doubles, two triples, 44 homers, 91 runs and 102 RBIs.

After a few days away, we’re back today with a new blog and hopefully some fresh thoughts and takes to lead us into the New Year.

For now, a few facts and opinions.

Fact: O’s 2024 ace pitcher Corbin Burnes is headed to Arizona to pitch for the 2025 season.

Opinion: The Orioles' current rotation, even minus Burnes, could be solid but is now missing the pitcher who finished fifth for the American League Cy Young Award. So how will the O’s make up for this loss? For me, it’s never a one-for-one type thing in that they add this player to replace that player. All players they use in 2025 could partially help replace those not back.

There are no longer any aces left via the free agent market but perhaps the team could deal for a top pitcher, as it did with Burnes last Feb. 1.

On Christmas Day 2024, if I could give something to every person alive, it would be the abilities to be humble, nice and respectful to each other every day in every way.

As I traveled recently, a big smile on my face in going through another adventure, I noticed so many people just look unhappy. Many probably are unhappy.

So many seem to think of themselves first often and seldom those around them. Too bad. We never know what someone else is dealing with or what burdens they carry.

I once told Jim Palmer it warms my heart that Hall of Fame Orioles like him and Brooks Robinson were always so very nice to the fans.

“Steve, it doesn’t take much to be nice,” he told me.

Baseball America recently wrote about the findings of Major League Baseball’s study on pitching injuries and what it meant for amateur youth pitchers.

The study found – to no real surprise – that youth pitchers are throwing too much, too hard, and too often. This is leading to long-term injuries. Again, no one should be surprised.

They are chasing the dollars of MLB and before that the scholarships from top Div. I schools that lead them to get drafted that lead them to pro ball and possibly one day to the big dollars of the majors.

How big?

Price tags are going up.

Sure the Orioles, like most teams that don’t have one, could use an ace pitcher. They still hope to add one before the start of the 2025 season. 

But their current rotation has the makings of being a good one.

Here is how it looks today:

Zach Eflin: He is the probable Opening Day starter. After the trade to the Orioles, over nine starts, he went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. Only nine pitchers, including the Orioles' Corbin Burnes, that qualified, posted season-long ERAs under 3.00. To do it even for nine starts was impressive.

Eflin finished sixth for the 2023 American League Cy Young Award and has been among the best pitchers in the American League. Over the last two years, while Burnes posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.083 WHIP, Eflin was at 3.54 and 1.085.

Today, it’s another edition, our pre-Holiday edition, of several questions for O’s fans. Per usual, answer one question or all of them. Respond to other readers' answers with your takes on their takes. 

On to the questions:

1) Where does right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano slot into the O’s rotation? And after going 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA in Japan, how well will he do for the 2025 Orioles?

2) Which player will bat leadoff the most next season?

3) Which player will lead the 2025 O’s in home runs and hit how many?

When the Orioles begin the 2025 season, there is a pretty good chance right-hander Dean Kremer will be in their rotation. As he has been for the last few seasons.

Kremer posted an ERA of 3.23, a career best, in 21 starts in 2022. But he had a 4.12 ERA the next season, and last season it was 4.10.

That ERA was essentially league average: an ERA+ of 99 in 2023 and his ERA+ was 92 last year. His career mark is 4.28, so the O’s appreciate Kremer’s efforts, of course, but must wonder if he can find a higher gear.

Kremer, who turns 29 on Jan. 7, has just over three years of service time and is arbitration-eligible for the first time. He could get around $3.5 million via arbitration, per MLBTradeRumors.com. He cannot be a free agent until after the 2027 season.

In 2023, Kremer made 32 starts and the O’s had an outstanding 24-8 record in those games. They went 10-14 in his 24 starts this past season.

Mike Snyder just completed his 16^th season with the Orioles. He was inherited by Mike Elias when he joined the Orioles but has proven to be a key lieutenant to the O’s executive vice president and general manager.

Snyder completed his first year in the role of senior director of professional scouting after being promoted in October of 2023. In this role, he oversees the club’s pro scouting and player analysis across the majors, minors, and Asian professional leagues, as well as assisting with contract negotiations, 40-man roster construction, player transactions, and departmental hiring.

He has a hand in evaluating talent ranging from a minor league player who may have little chance to make the majors to some of the best players in all of MLB.

He has plenty of resources at his disposal no doubt and reams of stats, data and video to check as well as his in-person scouting looks.

But does character matter too? What role does that play when the O’s look to acquire a player?

Today in this space a few more comments from 2024 Double-A Bowie manager Roberto Mercado on a few of his players with the Baysox this year.

I interviewed Mercado after the Arizona Fall League season when he led Surprise to the AFL title game. During that interview we talked about his Fall League experience but also about several of his 2024 Baysox players.

One pitcher that impressed him was right-hander Cameron Weston, the club’s round eight pick in 2022 out of the University of Michigan.

He had solid stats pitching in four games at the start of last season for High-A Aberdeen before he moved to Bowie and pitched in 23 more games with 14 starts.

Despite his good 2024 and career numbers, Weston is not ranked in the current MLBPipeline.com O’s top 30 prospects list.

For the Orioles in recent years, seeing a highly-ranked prospect come up and produce right away has been a challenge. Frankly, it’s a challenge for a lot of players and teams.

Any move up the minor league ladder can be a challenge for a young player but the move to the majors is the hardest. Hard to get there, sometimes harder to stay there.

The O’s can go back to Cal Ripken Jr. to see his rough start in the majors. More recently, then No. 1 ranked prospect Adley Rutschman came up in May of 2022. After his first 20 big league games, he was batting .176 with no homers or RBIs. Colton Cowser hit .115 in 2023, and Grayson Rodriguez had an ERA of 7.35 his first 10 MLB starts. Now he’s a top of the rotation type pitcher.

In 2024, elite prospects like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo had some big-time MLB struggles.

During the Winter Meetings, O’s director of player development Anthony Villa was asked about how the organization can try to help their top prospects get off to better starts when they arrive in the big leagues?

With 13 international players ranked among the O’s top 30 prospects by MLBPipeline.com, the club’s international program keeps humming along.

It’s big for the Orioles to have both quantity and quality coming from the international prospects. Not only are players like Samuel Basallo getting close now to the majors, but the high number of ranked international prospects will help the O’s mainly a highly-ranked and fertile farm system.

Basallo remains the shining star, having played his age 19 season in 2024. He ends the year ranked as the No. 13 top 100 prospect by both Baseball America and MLBPipeline.

Over 127 games between Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) and Triple-A Norfolk, Basallo who turned 20 on Aug. 13, hit .278/.341/.449/.790 with 25 doubles, 19 homers and 65 RBIs.

Basallo produced an .820 OPS with Bowie with 16 homers, 55 RBIs. He hit just .222 with the Tides but batted .297 with an .810 OPS his last 11 games, after going 7-for-44 his first 10 games.

During my recent conversation with Matt Blood, the O’s vice president, player development and domestic scouting, we spent much of the time discussing what happened on the O’s farm in 2024.

He was honest to say the club was, to use his words “not celebrating” the farm offense from last season.

Sure, a lot went right and players like Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo and others had plenty of special days and nights on the farm.

But overall, Triple-A Norfolk’s team OPS of .752 rated 13^th of 20 teams in the International League. Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) had a team OPS of .667 (ninth of 12 in the Eastern League). High-A Aberdeen was at .684 to finish seventh of 12 in the South Atlantic League. Low-A Delmarva, at .641, ranked 11^th of 12 in the Carolina League.

Like the big league club making some changes and adjustments on offense, the farm system may do some of the same moving forward.

When the Orioles recently announced their coaching staff for the 2025 season, one of the new hires was Robinson Chirinos, who will be the team’s bench coach.

That is quite the entry into the coaching ranks for Chirinos, 40, whose last season playing in the majors was in 2022 for the Orioles.

He played in 67 games for that O’s team, and in 220 plate appearances he hit .179/.265/.287/.552. Those numbers don’t come close to telling the real story of his year. He was a major presence in the O’s clubhouse, cited often by manager Brandon Hyde as a clubhouse difference-maker for an O’s club that went from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 that season.

He helped teach the Orioles how to win.

That was the team’s first winning season since 2016, and the 31-win gain was the O’s largest in a single season since 1989, when they made a 33-game improvement from their 54–107 record in 1988.

During my interview in this space recently with Orioles Double-A Bowie (now Chesapeake) manager Roberto Mercado, he spent some time talking about his work in the Arizona Fall League and the O’s players he managed there.

But he also spent some time talking about his 2024 season with Double-A Bowie and some of the notable players he managed there this year. We’ll feature this in two parts and check in on a few players today and more in a few days.

Right-handed pitcher Alex Pham, age 25, was not added to the O’s 40-man roster and was available to any team in the recent Rule 5 draft.

Pham, a 19^th-round draft pick from the University of San Francisco, had a solid year for Bowie and he spent all of the 2024 season with the Baysox, making 27 starts.

Pham, who pitched to an ERA of 2.57 in 2023 between High-A Aberdeen and Bowie, went 7-4 with a 4.24 ERA for the Baysox this season. Over 119 innings he allowed 97 hits, had a 1.24 WHIP with a .221 average against and .669 OPS against. He walked 3.78 per nine and fanned 10.44.