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PLAYER REVIEW: TREVOR WILLIAMS
Age on Opening Day 2026: 33
How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2024
MLB service time: 9 years, 27 days
2025 salary: $7 million
Contract status: Signed for $7 million in 2026, free agent in 2027
2025 stats: 3-10, 6.21 ERA, 17 G, 17 GS, 82 2/3 IP, 106 H, 59 R, 57 ER, 11 HR, 21 BB, 65 SO, 2 HBP, 1.536 WHIP, 66 ERA+, 4.13 FIP, -0.6 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR
Quotable: “It stinks, it’s unfortunate. But I’m looking forward to getting it as strong as possible and cleaning up some things I need to clean up with my delivery and my mechanics to get me to the point where I need to be.” – Trevor Williams
2025 analysis: Though he missed considerable time due to a forearm injury, Williams was quite successful when healthy in 2024, going 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 13 starts. That was enough to convince former general manager Mike Rizzo to bring the veteran right-hander back, and on a two-year deal to boot. It quickly became clear that was a mistake.
Williams never really looked like the 2024 version of himself. He gave up three runs on 10 hits in his first start of the season, and his ERA never dropped below 5.00 after that. There were a few solid outings sprinkled in, including six scoreless innings of three-hit ball May 28 in Seattle. But those moments were fleeting, and he regressed back into the unsuccessful starter who was roughed up throughout the 2023 season.
The low point came July 2, when Williams was tagged by the Tigers for seven runs in three innings in the first game of a doubleheader. The next day, he complained of elbow soreness, so the Nats scheduled an MRI for him. The results of that MRI: a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. The tear wasn’t significant enough to require Tommy John surgery, but he still needed an internal brace procedure to repair and strengthen the ligament, ending his season prior to the All-Star break and leaving him unlikely to be ready for Opening Day 2026.
2026 outlook: Williams wouldn’t fit into the Nationals’ future plans if not for the contract new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni now inherits. But because he is under contract for another $7 million, he’s almost certain to return and attempt to make a successful recovery from his injury. (Unless ownership is willing to eat that money.)
Even in a best-case scenario, Williams doesn’t expect to be ready until late April or early May, so he won’t be one of the five starters coming out of spring training. If and when he’s cleared to return, the key thing to watch will be his velocity and fastball command.
Williams already was one of the softest-throwing right-handers in baseball before the injury, but his velocity went even further down this season, from 88.9 mph to 87.7 mph. And if you look at the plot of all of the four-seamers he threw, his most common location was right down the middle of the strike zone. Is it any wonder opponents mashed that fastball to the tune of a .345 batting average and .556 slugging percentage after being held to a paltry .202 and .279 in those respective categories the previous year?
Williams was successful in 2024 because he located his fastball well and because he kept all of his other pitches down at the bottom of the zone, inducing a ton of ground balls. That rate plummeted this season from 44.8 percent to 35.1 percent, further evidence of his struggles.
All of which leaves the 33-year-old in a precarious position as he attempts to make it back next season. Not only must he prove he’s healthy again, but then he has to prove he can actually be successful again.
