How well is Taylor suited to be a fourth outfielder?

Even if math isn't your strong suit, it's easy to see that Michael A. Taylor is the odd man out in the Nationals outfield.

Contract status, defensive prowess and previous production dictate that Juan Soto will start in left field in 2020, with Victor Robles in center and Adam Eaton in right.

So where does that leave Taylor, who was tendered a contract last season and lost his arbitration hearing against the Nationals, who paid him $3.25 million in 2019 instead of the $3.5 million he sought? Last season, Taylor played 57 games at Double-A Harrisburg after the Nats optioned him to get regular playing time in late June when Ryan Zimmerman came off the injured list.

There's a lot to like about a 28-year-old who is solid with the leather (and was a Gold Glove finalist as recently as 2017) and possesses enough speed to have stolen 24 bases in 30 tries just two seasons ago. But since breaking out with a .271/.320/.486 slash line with 19 homers and 53 RBIs in 2017, Taylor has regressed offensively.

In the past two campaigns, Taylor has hit only .231/.291/.358 with seven homers. More troubling, he's struck out 150 times in 441 at-bats while drawing only 36 walks. It's hard to use your speed as a weapon if you're not getting on base on a regular basis, and Taylor isn't exactly forcing the his way into the Nationals lineup.

By all accounts, he didn't sulk when dispatched to Harrisburg (the Nationals' choice to keep him closer to D.C. rather than sending him to Triple-A Fresno). But neither did he torch Double-A pitching. Taylor slashed .248/.324/.463 with the Senators, posting 16 doubles, two triples, nine homers and 10 stolen bases. He struck out 69 times and walked 25 times in 218 at-bats.

Taylor, who is entering his third arbitration year and will be a free agent after the 2021 season, desperately needs an uptick in both opportunities and production if he wants to continue an upward contract trajectory. But with a crowded outfield and fewer chances to impress unless one of his teammates gets injured, what is the likelihood of that happening?

Simply put, Taylor doesn't perform well as a reserve, though managers Dusty Baker and Davey Martinez have hyped his abilities as a plus defender and his ability to carve out tough plate appearances off the bench. But the numbers don't support their confidence.

In 389 career starts, Taylor is a .244/.297/.399 hitter with 45 home runs and 151 RBIs - not earth-shattering numbers, but also not the minimal production he's offered as a substitute: .195/.254/.325 with three homers and 17 RBIs. Working at-bats aside, Taylor also hasn't come through as a pinch-hitter, compiling a lifetime .190/.261/.286 mark with one homer, 26 whiffs and only six walks in 70 plate appearances.

His numbers off the bench were better last season, when he posted a .308/.379/.462 slash line as a sub and went 5-for-12 as a pinch-hitter. But that .417 mark in a pinch produced only one RBI, though he had as many strikeouts as walks (three) in his 16 plate appearances. That's an upgrade from his .179/.238/.231 log as a reserve in 2018, which included a 5-for-25 performance as a pinch-hitter that produced no extra-base hits and two RBIs.

Where Taylor has really succeeded is in the postseason, where he's got a career .316/.395/.632 line with four homers and 13 RBIs in 43 plate appearances. His 13 strikeouts and four walks in the postseason track with his career numbers, but you can accept them when a player is otherwise producing.

So where does that leave Taylor entering 2020? General manager Mike Rizzo and Martinez obviously like his glove and wheels, and given Eaton's injury history, having a guy capable of stepping into the starting lineup should something happen is a nice insurance policy. But right field, while not foreign territory, isn't Taylor's usual assignment; he's played only 15 games there in 439 games as a major league outfielder, his fewest in any of the three outfield spots.

The only other outfielder on the 40-man roster is Andrew Stevenson, who has five more seasons of team control. With last offseason's trade of prospect Daniel Johnson in the deal that netted catcher Yan Gomes, the Nats are threadbare in the outfield in the minors. Stevenson took advantage of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and slashed .334/.383/.503 in 73 Triple-A games in 2019. The other two outfielders who played the most for the Grizzlies - 32-year-old Yadiel Hernandez (.343/.406/.604 with 33 homers and 90 RBIs) and 27-year-old Alec Keller (.302/.346/.386) - were exposed in the Rule 5 draft and not selected. Both fit the bill as organizational filler.

Rizzo could deal Taylor and pluck the waiver wire for a backup outfielder or two - a la Gerardo Parra last season - but he'd be selling low on Taylor, who likely won't bring a hefty return. Taylor's best course of action may be to produce in spring training, opening eyes of possible suitors, and to hope Martinez can maximize his playing time by rotating him into the 2020 outfield mix on more than a sporadic basis.

Taylor is a fan favorite, one of those guys Rizzo likes to refer to as players the Nationals have drafted and developed with positive results. But unless Taylor wants to be thought of as a glove-first guy who is pigeonholed as a spare part, he's got to produce enough to warrant a bigger role as he moves into his prime production years.

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