Ross will have to re-establish himself after Tommy John surgery

As we transition into offseason mode here, we're reviewing each significant player on the Nationals roster. We continue today with Joe Ross, whose erratic season was cut short by a major elbow injury ...

PLAYER REVIEW: JOE ROSS

Age on opening day 2018: 24

How acquired: Traded from Padres with Trea Turner for Steven Souza Jr. and Travis Ott, who were sent to Rays in three-team deal, December 2014

MLB service time: 2 years, 67 days

2017 salary: $551,000

Contract status: Under team control in 2018, arbitration-eligible in 2019, free agent in 2022

2017 stats: 5-3, 5.01 ERA, 13 GS, 73 2/3 IP, 88 H, 44 R, 41 ER, 16 HR, 20 BB, 68 SO, 1 HBP, 1.466 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

Quotable: "We had a long conversation today, and I told him that he has to go in with a positive outlook. ... It's always tough on the first one. But I know a whole bunch of guys who have come back better and thrown harder and quicker with better mechanics." - Dusty Baker, after Ross was told he needed Tommy John surgery

2017 analysis: There was plenty of reason for optimism surrounding Ross entering the season. Though he missed considerable time with a shoulder injury in 2016, he returned in time for the stretch run and started a playoff game at Dodger Stadium, then reported to West Palm Beach fully healthy. But the Nationals elected to have Ross open the season at Triple-A Syracuse, ostensibly because they didn't need a permanent fifth starter until mid-April.

Trouble is, Ross got off to a rough start at Syracuse, then struggled once he was promoted to the big leagues. A ridiculous amount of run support (52 runs in three games) kept him from being charged with a loss, but after posting a 7.47 ERA in April, Ross was optioned back to Triple-A. He returned in late May and enjoyed a few strong starts along the way, but remained erratic and reached July with an ERA that still stood north of 5.00 and a fastball that was down several ticks from where it had been in the past.

Everything came to a head on July 9, when Ross' fastball velocity fell to 86-88 mph. He was pulled in the fourth inning of that start and sent for an MRI. The diagnosis: a "full-thickness tear" of the ulnar collateral ligament, requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery.

2018 outlook: The new year will begin with Ross rehabbing from his surgery. A typical timeline would see him start throwing before spring training, but he'll be restricted and well behind the rest of his pitching teammates while in West Palm Beach. He'll remain there after the club heads north, eventually ramping up to throw off a bullpen mound and then against live hitters.

If all goes well, Ross would head out for a minor league rehab assignment in June, which would put him on track to make his full return in July, a full year after the surgery. But that's an optimistic timetable, and it wouldn't be surprising if he takes a bit longer, even without suffering setbacks.

Once healthy, Ross probably is going to have to earn his rotation spot all over again. The Nationals are expected to pursue a No. 5 starter this winter, and if everybody stays healthy, Ross will find himself serving as second-half rotation depth, along with Erick Fedde and A.J. Cole.

Truth be told, Ross is pretty much starting over at this point. It wasn't long ago he was viewed as a key long-term part of the Nationals rotation. But he has made only 32 total starts over the last two seasons while battling two significant arm injuries. The organization has no choice but to view him in a different light now, requiring the young right-hander to prove himself all over again once he returns.