Steve Mears: Lack of pitching depth has put Nats in a tough spot

The Nationals' formula to success begins with great starting pitching. "You can never have enough starting pitching," general manager Mike Rizzo said in spring training. The Nationals had signed Bronson Arroyo in the offseason, and it was looking like Arroyo could make the 2016 team, allowing Rizzo to stash Joe Ross in Triple-A. The best-laid plans don't always work out, as Arroyo was injured in spring, and the Nationals' depth looked like a pick 'em from Taylor Jordan, Taylor Hill and A.J. Cole, along with top prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez.

In 2012, Rizzo and Davey Johnson wrapped up spring training with six healthy starters, and they were able to stash veteran John Lannan in Triple-A as Ross Detwiler made the starting rotation for the Nationals. Having John Lannan as a sixth starter paid dividends during the 2012 season.

This season, the Nationals have needed multiple replacement starters, as Stephen Strasburg has started 23 games and Ross, who is on the 60-day disabled list, has only started 16 games. Compare that to Max Scherzer, who started his 29th game last night.

Dusty Baker has used four spot starters this season - Yusmeiro Petit (one start), Cole (three), Giolito (four) and Lopez (six) - for a combined 14 starts. The issue is the spot starters have the following innings pitched, earned runs, and team records:

* Petit: six innings pitched, three earned runs, 0-1
* Cole: 18 2/3 innings pitched, eight earned runs, 1-2
* Giolito: 16 innings pitched, 10 earned runs, 1-3
* Lopez: 29 1/3 innings pitched, 18 earned runs, 2-4

When we combine the 14 spot starts, the totals are 70 innings pitched and 39 earned runs. Now let's analyze what all of that means. The combined team record in those starts was 4-10, which is a .286 winning percentage. The 70 combined innings during those 14 starts averaged exactly five innings per start, which meant the bullpen would have to eat up 56 innings of work. The combined ERA in those starts was 5.01.

You can never have enough starting pitching. You can never have enough good starting pitching. Overall, the Nationals are 80-57 after Monday's game. With the opening day rotation of Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez and Ross, the Nationals are a combined 76-47 in games they started. That is a .618 winning percentage.

In contrast, the Cubs have only needed a combined six spot starts, and the Cubs' top starter by innings pitched is Jake Arietta, who has thrown 174 innings, compared to Scherzer, who has thrown 197 innings, and Roark, who has thrown 180 1/3 innings. Scherzer leads the majors in innings pitched and has four scheduled starts remaining in the regular season.

Is there some addition by subtraction that is needed in rationing innings for Scherzer and Roark in the remainder of the regular season? Is there anything we can learn about how the Mets handled their starters last year? Is there anything we can learn about how the Cubs' Joe Maddon has handled his starters?

Foresight is always the key.

Steve Mears blogs about the Nationals for Talk Nats. Follow the blog on Twitter: @TalkNats2. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.