What to watch for in tonight's Hall of Fame election results

For lifelong baseball fans, few days on the calendar compare to Hall of Fame election day. It's a day to celebrate some of the greatest players in the game's history, not to mention fiercely debate the credentials of those who either just squeaked in or missed out.

Shortly after 6 p.m. Eastern time, Hall of Fame president Jeff Idelson will make the official announcement, revealing who received at least 75 percent of the vote from tenured members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America and thus earned permanent enshrinement in Cooperstown.

For those wondering ... yes, I am a voter. This was my seventh Hall of Fame ballot, and they don't get any easier from year to year, given all the factors involved. I'll reveal my selections and offer up thoughts on every player who appeared on the ballot after the announcement this evening, so be sure to check back later for that.

In the meantime, here are the storylines to keep an eye on as the results are announced ...

IS IT FINALLY TIME FOR RAINES AND BAGWELL?
Tim Raines was on the ballot for the 10th time this year, which means this is his last chance for election. Few players have ever gained as much support over time as Raines, who way back in 2008 was named on only 24.3 percent of ballots but climbed to 69.8 percent last year. Based on those ballots that already have been made public, the former Expos outfielder is in good shape to get over the hump. If it happens, it'll be one of the great Hall of Fame stories in recent memory, not to mention further evidence of the power the internet has to influence voters and change their minds.

Jeff Bagwell hasn't had to wait quite as long - this is his seventh year on the ballot - but he, too, has seen his support rise over time. The Astros first baseman was named on only 41.7 percent of ballots in his first attempt in 2011 but just missed election last year with 71.6 percent support. Bagwell likewise is in good shape, based on those ballots already released, setting up for his election later this evening.

CAN ANY OF THE FIRST-TIMERS GET IN?
Though it makes no difference once you're in the Hall of Fame, there has always been an unofficial distinction between "first-ballot Hall of Famers" and all others. Only the very best of the best manage to crack the 75 percent threshold in their first attempt, but two greats have a chance to do it this year.

Ivan Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero have awfully strong career resumes, and as such, they have been teetering right around the golden number as public ballots have trickled out the last few weeks. As of last night, Rodriguez was named on 78.6 percent of ballots, with Guerrero receiving 71.4 percent support, according to Oakland fan Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame Tracker.

Neither Pudge - who would become the first Nationals player to be elected to the Hall of Fame - nor Guerrero is a lock in either direction, so these are the two guys most likely to be sweating it out today as they wait to learn their fates.

HOW BIG WILL THE BUMP BE FOR BONDS AND CLEMENS?
Since first appearing on the ballot in 2013, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have received nearly identical support. And not much of it. Both superstars fell in the 35 percent range their first three years, then jumped up to roughly 45 percent last year. That's a long way from induction, but if the early ballots are evidence of what's to come, both Bonds and Clemens are likely to see their numbers rise significantly this year, with both players in the 63 percent range, according to Thibodaux.

How did that happen? Well, a good number of writers appear to have changed their minds about Bonds and Clemens in the wake of Bud Selig's election by the Today's Game Era Committee last month. If Selig, who many believe turned a blind eye toward steroids use during his time as commissioner, was worthy of Cooperstown, why not the best hitter and best pitcher of the last half-century? Neither Bonds nor Clemens is likely to get close to 75 percent this year, but a strong bump now would significantly help their chances of getting elected before their time runs out in five more years.

WHAT ABOUT THE CLOSERS?
There are precious few relievers in the Hall of Fame, but the next generation of closers is starting to knock on the door. Trevor Hoffman debuted last year with 67.3 percent of the vote, putting the former Padres right-hander on the cusp. Mariano Rivera should be a lock for induction when he joins the ballot in 2019. Billy Wagner, whose stats top Hoffman in some key areas, was named on only 10.5 percent of ballots last year and faces long odds. And Lee Smith, in his 15th and final year on the ballot - the last of the older players grandfathered in after the Hall of Fame reduced the limit from 15 years to 10 years on the ballot - doesn't appear to have a reasonable shot.

WHO ARE THE OTHER BIG GAINERS?
These guys won't be approaching 75 percent this year, but Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and Larry Walker should all see their vote totals increase from 2016. The stigma of being a designated hitter seems to be wearing off for Martinez, who was named on 65.5 percent of public ballots as of last night. Mussina (58.8 percent on public ballots) continues to gain support from voters who are coming to appreciate the right-hander consistency over nearly two decades. And Walker, who was named on only 15.5 percent of ballots last year, has seen his support this year jump to 23.1 percent.

WHO FALLS OFF THE BALLOT?
A player needs at least 5 percent of the vote to remain on the ballot, and several notable candidates could find themselves in trouble this year. Sammy Sosa, whose ties to steroids have left the slugger an afterthought, was named on only 7 percent of ballots last year. Gary Sheffield got only 11.6 percent of votes in 2016. And Jorge Posada, on the ballot for the first time, was sitting at only 4.2 percent on early ballot returns, putting the catcher in danger of being one-and-done.