Matthew Taylor: How are O's tallying so many comeback wins?

What should we make of the Orioles' growing number of comeback wins? Is it a function of the powerful lineup? The outstanding bullpen? Orioles Magic? The answer isn't as simple as any one thing; however, the most significant factor in the O's disproportionate number of comeback victories is what happens in the early innings. The team is making a habit of digging itself into early holes and then climbing out of them.

The Orioles have three walk-offs so far in 2016. If you're like me, walk-offs are what instinctively come to mind when you hear the word comeback. Three walk-offs isn't atypical for mid-May. The O's had one walk-off win by this time last season. Looking slightly further back, they had four walk-offs by this time in 2014 when they won the division, and one walk-off by this date in 2012 when they earned the Wild Card. Nevertheless, the Orioles comebacks are not about walk-offs.

The Orioles have yet to win a game this season when they've trailed entering the eighth inning. Each of the aforementioned walk-offs came in games that were tied after seven innings. Sure, the seventh inning has been a charmed frame for the O's. It's when they've scored the most runs (28). However, that total is skewed a bit by their nine-run outburst in the seventh inning of the April 15 victory versus the Rangers. The Orioles comebacks are not about Orioles Magic.

Now, let's turn our attention to the opposite end of the box score.

The Orioles have trailed after one inning in 12 games this season. O's starters have allowed 24 first-inning runs. Only the sixth inning, when they've allowed 30 runs, has been worse. This was to be expected. However, Thursday's loss to the Mariners was only the O's third loss this season in games they have trailed after one inning. They are now 9-3 in that situation. The Orioles comebacks are about surmounting early deficits.

If you want to make sure not to miss an Orioles comeback, try tuning in for the middle innings. The Orioles have scored in the fourth inning on 15 occasions, in the fifth inning on 11 occasions, and in the sixth inning on 13 occasions. The O's aren't taking chances with their opponents' best relievers in this era of pitching specialists and shortened games. Instead, the lineup is capitalizing on its second looks at starters and its match-ups with middle relievers.

Ultimately, the Orioles' comeback formula looks like this: Give up runs immediately, rally in the middle innings, and hold on for the victory at the end. It's a formula that speaks to early struggles for starters, batters who figure out the opposing pitcher after multiple looks and who feast on middle relievers, and a bullpen that locks things down in the end.

None of this takes away from the Orioles' comeback total. It is reassuring as a fan to know that the lineup and the bullpen can keep the team in most games. I've found myself being less discouraged this season when other teams score early. Instead, I end up thinking, "They'll get those runs back." Recent events notwithstanding, I also find myself feeling confident that the Orioles will hold leads late in games. It's all part of the formula.

Matthew Taylor blogs about the Orioles at Roar from 34. Follow him on Twitter: @RoarFrom34. His ruminations about the Birds appear as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.




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