Quick recap on Colton Cowser selection

The major league draft is down to its final day and 10 picks. Emotions won't run quite as high with the final announcements. Fans don't typically vent over the 20th selection.

The first? Yeah, it gets pretty loud.

The Orioles passed on three high school shortstops Sunday who remained on the board as their turn came, the mocks blown up immediately with the Pirates taking Louisville catcher Henry Davis at No. 1. Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias also shunned Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker, the consensus No. 1 after his freshman season.

Elias doesn't draft out of need, and Rocker wasn't chosen until the Mets at No. 10.

Prep shortstop Kahlil Watson, who moved up to first in early mocks and down to the Orioles in some of the most recently published, lasted until the Marlins picked at No. 16.

This prediction stuff ain't an exact science and watching the reactions of the experts never fails to amuse and entertain.

Elias described outfielder Heston Kjerstad as the best power bat in the country in 2020. He described outfielder Colton Cowser Sunday as one of the best pure hitters in the country and an elite contact hitter.

And here's where the reminder comes in that a team can go underslot and also really like the player. In fact, that's how Elias has operated. He wouldn't have drafted Kjerstad or Cowser just to pay less in the first round. He also wanted them based on their skills.

The two can co-exist.

Which brings us to a second reminder. Money saved on the top pick isn't pocketed. Elias isn't using it to purchase a new deck. The Orioles can go overslot further down the draft, as they did with multiple players last year. It's a smart strategy to keep a high school kid from fulfilling his commitment to a college program.

(I have no idea whether Elias owns a house with a deck and he doesn't pay the salaries anyway, but the line, which came to me while I was mowing my lawn, made me chuckle and I ran with it.)

Which brings us to a third reminder. You can't judge a draft until much later, and especially not five minutes after the pick is announced.

Kjerstad and Cowser can't be called busts when they haven't played a single inning of professional baseball. There will be plenty of time later to dissect them and the players who were bypassed - like Billy Rowell over Tim Lincecum in 2006 and Matt Hobgood over Mike Trout in 2009.

I could cite plenty of other examples from this organization's draft history but I'm not here to depress anyone.

OK, one more: Mike Paradis, Richard Stahl, Larry Bigbie and Keith Reed in 1999. Or is that four more? Anyway, it doesn't matter who the Orioles passed on, and if you check out the first round, you won't recognize many names. It was just a badly lost opportunity with that many picks.

Now, back to the present, and a fourth reminder. There's nothing wrong with taking a center fielder if Cedric Mullins is dragged into the argument.

Center fielders are athletic and can move to one of the corners. Mullins has done it. Austin Hays has done it. Brady Anderson and Steve Finley did it. The list goes on and on.

Cowser is at least a few years away from his major league debut. There's no reason to criticize the pick only because the Orioles already have Mullins.

The only tool missing for Mullins is arm strength, but it's improved and he covers so much ground in center that it's excused.

What about Cowser's arm?

"I think he has a 55 arm on the 20-80 scouting scale, so we'd call that an above-average arm," Elias said. "I think some scouts might call it better than that. But I feel really good that it's a real clean, technically correct, accurate throwing motion and it's an arm that should play in right field if he's ever playing right field."

Maybe the Orioles don't "need" another outfielder, but who knows? Kjerstad hasn't been able to work out because of a recurrence of his myocarditis. Yusniel Diaz is batting .167/.228/.274 at Triple-A Norfolk and he's hurt every year. Anthony Santander is a trade chip. Ryan Mountcastle might be a first baseman. Trey Mancini already is a first baseman. DJ Stewart might be in another organization.

The rotation is a total mess, but the Orioles are hoping that DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez and Zac Lowther and Kyle Bradish and Kevin Smith and Dean Kremer and Alexander Wells and a bunch of others in the minors flood it in the next few years, when the worst parts of the rebuild are behind them.

"It's a factor to us that one of the relative strengths on our big league roster right now is in the outfield," Elias said, "but you look at our farm system and we have a lot of good pitchers, we have a lot of good infielders, we have a catcher in the farm system that we are excited about. Again, it's hard to worry too much about the composition of your current personnel when you're trying to make a pick.

"With Colton Cowser, with him being a middle-of-the-diamond player, he's going to be able to play in all three outfield spots and his bat is going to profile at all three outfield spots. So, when he joins this team, hopefully in the next couple of years if all goes well, we're going to have some options there."

That can be moving guys around, that can be trades. That can be filling spots vacated because someone didn't live up to expectations.

Can't have too much pitching or too many shortstops or too many outfielders. The plan is to keep pumping talent through the system after creating a pipeline. Where it fits is a project for another day.

How do I feel about the Cowser selection? How kind of you to ask.

I know as much about Cowser as you do based on the mocks and Google searches. Maybe a little more since I wrote up a pre-draft capsule on him for quick filing. Maybe a lot less if you're a college baseball seam-head or your cable company doesn't carry MASN but provides all the Sam Houston State that your heart desires.

My initial and selfish reaction was, thank goodness the Orioles drafted a player that I prepped for, and that I didn't get burned by ignoring shortstop Marcelo Mayer as he began to fall. I was sure that he'd be long gone before the Orioles selected. I also kept thinking how much he looked like Vincent Chase in "Entourage."

It wouldn't have been the end of the world to scramble for information and stats on the pick, but ... I would have treated it like the end of the world.

I was ready for Cowser - and the first person who comes up with a "Wowzer, it's Cowser!" T-shirt will make a small fortune - but also for Davis, Rocker, the other prep shortstops, high school pitcher Jackson Jobe and Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick.

My ledes were tailored for each player, though the shortstops and college outfielders required only a change of names. And I hate to be wasteful, so ...

* Having a catcher in the system who currently rates as the No. 1 prospect among minor leaguers and should be setting targets for the Orioles by 2022 didn't dissuade them from attacking the position again tonight.

The Orioles used the fifth-overall selection tonight on University of Louisville catcher Henry Davis, 21, regarded by a wide group of evaluators as the best bat in the First-Year Player Draft.

* The Orioles caught a falling star tonight in the First-Year Player Draft.

Given the fifth-overall selection, they chose Vanderbilt University right-hander Kumar Rocker instead of one of the three high school shortstops left on the board.

* Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said on Friday that the First-Year Player Draft was defined by a collection of high school shortstops projected to go within the first 10 picks.

Elias couldn't let one get past him.

The Orioles used the fifth-overall selection on (insert Watson, Jordan Lawlar or Brady House).

* High school pitcher Jackson Jobe soared up the draft rankings this year, seemingly past the Orioles, who held the fifth pick tonight.

The first four teams passed on him and the Orioles pounced.

I really liked the toolsy high school shortstops, even though the Orioles have a bunch of them in the system. Rocker would have been an extremely popular pick with fans and it's going to sting if he becomes a stud ace. Yes, the Orioles need pitching. But I also talked to some people in the industry, including a former major league pitcher, who thought it was too risky based on Rocker's declining velocity this season.

Of course, it also was pointed out that Rocker tended to find that velocity when he really needed it and almost seemed to be bored at times.

I can't slam or celebrate the Cowser pick until I've had years to watch him play. But the quick take is that, man, this isn't going to be real popular with a segment of the fan base that wanted pitching and thinks underslotting is being cheap. And Cowser one year after Kjerstad is going to fuel some of that, shall we say, disapproval. But also, man, look at his numbers. The kid can hit and he can play anywhere in the outfield and lots of good things were said about him on MLB Network after the announcement, not just from Elias. And no team needs to take into consideration where a publication or outlet ranks a player.

And then I deleted my unused capsules and hopped on a Zoom call.