Some Orioles uncertainties heading into season

A dozen guarantees on the Orioles were published a few days ago, with me reserving the right to claim that my account was hacked if I’m wrong.

The safer road traveled is the one with plenty of exits and nothing concrete.

Here are a dozen subjects that come with assumptions, educated guesses and a range of possibilities, but they can’t be promised. We just don’t know without a crystal ball and a licensed fortune teller.

Are Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez in the opening day rotation?
We know two-fifths of it – Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin. Kremer and Bradish earned the right to keep their jobs. How can you argue it? The club is on record that it wants Rodriguez to start. He has his own cheering section. But it would be wrong to write their names in ink. Too many other candidates, including Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Austin Voth.

The Orioles might or might not piggyback a starter.
It makes sense to do it. Could have six starters in a five-man rotation and better control Rodriguez’s workload. Makes sense not to because, as Mike Elias pointed out, the bullpen basically is reduced to seven relievers. That might be plenty on some teams, but the Orioles’ rotation isn't filled with innings eaters. So yes or no.

DL Hall might break camp with the team.
Or he might not. Depends whether he makes the rotation and if the Orioles insist on keeping him in a starter’s role, which eliminates the bullpen. They could justify beginning him in Triple-A Norfolk’s rotation, where he’d keep working on his command, and finding a spot for him later. They could justify holding onto that electric arm, which began a weapon for them in relief down the stretch with one run allowed and 11 strikeouts in his last eight appearances over 8 2/3 innings.

Terrin Vavra doesn’t have a spot locked up.
Vavra concedes that his skill set is very similar to Adam Frazier’s, as they both bat from the left side, play second base and the outfield, and make contract but don’t bring a lot of power. A four-man bench seems to have a seat for him, but it’s too soon to know. Frazier or Ramón Urías, depending on the lineup, occupy one spot. Backup catcher James McCann has the second. Oh sure, we can say Vavra and outfielder Ryan McKenna also are on the bench if Kyle Stowers is in the lineup. That’s how I’ve got it. But I can’t guarantee it and neither can you.

Playing off this, we’re just assuming that McKenna heads north.
And you know what happens when you assume. It isn’t a reach. McKenna appeared in 104 games last season after making the opening day roster. His 61 games as a substitute were third in and majors and second-most by an Oriole since 2000, ranking behind outfielder David Lough's 65 in 2014. He pinch ran in 18 games, tied for third in the majors and the second-most by an Oriole since 2008, ranking behind … wait for it … Lough’s 19 in 2014. Manager Brandon Hyde is a big supporter of McKenna, praising his speed, defense and attitude. Always stays ready. And he’s a right-handed hitter, which complements Vavra, Frazier and Kyle Stowers. But guaranteed a roster spot? Guess we have to stop short. And that’s my move.

Elias isn’t necessarily done making moves.
Don’t say he’s done. You don’t know that. He even says he still has interest in some free agents and remains involved in trade talks and is checking the waiver wire. Does that sound like a man who’s had all he can transaction? (Please get The Simpson's "all you can eat" reference.)

Can’t assume that the Orioles again will put the fewest players on the injured list.
Including how no catchers or outfielders went on the IL. Adley Rutschman strained his right triceps at the beginning of camp, but he never left the Orioles’ active roster. Austin Hays played through pain. A lacerated hand, a sore wrist. Big win that he stayed away from the IL. Anthony Santander voided a September shutdown, and now he’s immune to the restricted list. Sure, there were some big injury hits, most notably John Means but also Kremer, Bradish, Wells and Ryan Mountcastle. But the Orioles as a whole won the health game. Just because it happened in 2022 doesn’t hint at a repeat.

None of the starting outfielders were traded, but …
Teams showed the usual interest in Santander and Cedric Mullins, but Elias wasn’t looking to move them. He’d listen to anyone about anything, but they’re too important on a team that’s got the rebuild in the rearview. Hays struggled in the second half, which decreased his value. Don’t sell low. None of this ensures that the Orioles will stand pat throughout 2023. Maybe they’re motivated by, let’s say, Colton Cowser’s eventual debut. My point is that we can’t state with absolute certainty that the starting trio remains untouched. Maybe yes, maybe no.

Some top infield prospects could make their major league debuts.
Could, not will. You don’t know, I don’t know, they don’t know. Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz are on the doorstep. They won’t make the club out of spring training, but they have a shot over the summer. Where the space comes from, well, I don’t know that, either. So far, none of them have been sacrificed to acquire a top of the rotation starter.

The Orioles have expressed confidence that they’ll make the playoffs, but will they?
The odds are better, but they still play in the American League East and the rotation on paper doesn’t match up with other clubs. It could end up as good or better. The kids could be more than all right. (I refuse to use the Who’s “alright.”) However, the lack of full-season track records raises doubts. Plain and simple. You can’t guarantee the postseason or no regression. You can only hope.

Less games against division opponents might benefit the Orioles.
A similar subject. There’s logic here, as well. Thirteen instead of 19 versus the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays. How can that hurt? But don’t fall into the trap of treating the non-division opponents like independent league teams. The Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals and Brewers don’t play their games on Easy Street. Mark me down for the Orioles getting the well-done end of the deal, but the schedule doesn’t promise more wins.

Austin Voth is expected to be just as good in 2023, but will it happen?
The Orioles version, to be exact. Not the D.C. one who posted a 10.13 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in 19 relief appearances. This didn’t occur by accident. The Orioles fixed Voth, to put it in simplest terms. He’ll tell you. The data introduced to him. Tweaking the delivery. Changes in pitch selection. So, it should be sustainable. But a guarantee? You just can’t do it.