Back injury spoiled Robles' potential bounceback season

PLAYER REVIEW: VICTOR ROBLES

Age on Opening Day 2024: 26

How acquired: Signed as international free agent, July 2013

MLB service time: 5 years, 33 days

2023 salary: $2.325 million

Contract status: $3.3 million club option for 2024, free agent in 2025

2023 stats: 36 G, 126 PA, 107 AB, 15 R, 32 H, 5 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 8 SB, 1 CS, 11 BB, 18 SO, .299 AVG, .385 OBP, .364 SLG, .750 OPS, 110 OPS+, -10 DRS, -0.1 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR

Quotable: “It stinks for him, and for us, because we challenged him to make some changes with his swing. He did it, and he was doing really, really well. I really wish we could’ve seen that for 550 plate appearances, because I think he would’ve surprised a lot of people. But only time will tell now.” – Davey Martinez

2023 analysis: No player on the roster was challenged more than Robles to show the organization something this season, lest his future be in jeopardy. He responded with some of his best baseball in years, only to still end the season with a future very much up in the air.

The Nationals had long wanted to see if Robles could become a more patient hitter, laying off pitches outside the zone and hitting those in the zone with more authority. He did it right from the start this year, reaching base three times on Opening Day (one hit, two walks), and he kept it up for more than a month.

Though he still didn’t hit for much power, Robles did hit the ball hard more often than in the past (30.1 percent of the time, compared to 23.8 percent the previous season). He more than doubled his walk rate, taking it from 4.2 percent to 8.7 percent. And he dramatically reduced his strikeout rate, from 25.6 percent to 14.3 percent, one of the lowest rates in the league.

Then came an awkward slide into second base May 6 in Arizona, which landed him on the injured list with an unspecified back issue. Six weeks later, he returned to the active roster and went 6-for-18 at the plate but looked uncomfortable in center field, committing several defensive mistakes that left the Nats questioning if he really was healthy or not. He went back on the IL after only five games and never returned before season’s end.

2024 outlook: The Nationals never did provide definitive clarity on the extent of Robles’ back injury, but it’s safe to say it was far more significant than anyone realized when it initially happened. According to general manager Mike Rizzo, Robles was set to begin baseball activities shortly after the season ended, and if all went well, the team hoped he would be able to play winter ball in his native Dominican Republic, recouping some of the at-bats he lost this year.

What, though, does all this mean for Robles’ future in D.C.? The one-year contract he agreed to last winter included a rare $3.3 million club option for 2024, even though he still would’ve been eligible for arbitration one more time and could’ve waited for the process to play out. In some ways, that was a smart decision by Robles, who never would’ve earned that much via arbitration after his injury-plagued season. But the Nats also could decide not to pick up the option, leaving Robles out of a job.

Aside from Stephen Strasburg (who technically still remains on the roster), Robles is the longest-tenured player in the organization, having signed more than a decade ago as a teenager with a limitless future in baseball. Outside of a promising rookie season in 2019, he hasn’t come close to living up to that billing. And yet, what he did to begin this season undoubtedly was impressive, and has to make club officials at least consider if he might still have the ability to sustain that when healthy.

The Nationals obviously have no shortage of outfield prospects waiting to burst onto the scene, so it may be too late for Robles regardless. But if they’re willing to pick up his option and give him one more shot, he could conceivably open the 2024 season as their starting center fielder and then hope to play well enough to stave off the kids who will be coming hard after his job.