Looking at reasons for the Nats' June swoon

Not so long ago – 2 1/2 weeks, to be precise – the Nationals appeared to be making real progress.

With an 8-7 win over the Phillies on June 2, the Nats improved to 25-32 overall. They even owned a winning record over nearly one-quarter of a full season, going 20-19 after opening the year a dismal 5-13. They were on pace for a 71-win season, which would be a dramatic improvement from a 55-107 fiasco in 2022.

Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore were leading the pitching staff, each making a case for All-Star consideration. The lineup, while still lacking in the power department, was managing to string together rallies with some regularity, scoring six or more runs five times in a span of 11 games. Young potential cornerstones Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia were making positive contributions.

In that moment, it was fair for anyone who has watched this franchise’s decline from World Series champs to full-scale rebuild to wonder if the worst days of this painful process were now in the past.

Then the Nationals started losing. And losing more. And losing even more.

Now, in the wake of Monday’s 8-6 loss to the Cardinals, the outlook is far less rosy. The Nats have dropped 12 of their last 14. They once again own the National League’s worst record. Their .380 winning percentage equates to 62-100 over a full season.

What happened? How did the positive vibes dissipate into thin air so quickly?

The schedule, to be sure, got tougher. The Nationals’ last six series have come against the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Braves, Astros and Marlins. All currently are in playoff position or no more than one game back in the wild card race.

So perhaps this regression was inevitable. And perhaps an upswing is coming when the schedule eases up a bit. (Though if they can’t win the next two against the surprisingly struggling Cardinals, it doesn’t bode well for what awaits them.)

Regardless of opponent, though, there are a few notable areas in which the Nats have regressed the last 2 1/2 weeks. Let’s look at their performance in different areas …

OFFENSE
The Nationals haven’t had a particularly potent lineup at any point this season, but the numbers have gotten worse during this 2-12 slump. They’ve experienced a drop in batting average (.265 to .248), slugging percentage (.393 to .372) and runs per game (4.4 to 3.2).

But the biggest drop-off has occurred in the most basic goal of offense: Getting on base. Through June 2, the Nationals sported a solid .330 on-base percentage. Since then, that number has plummeted to .279. And though there has been some drop in hits (9.1 per game before, 8.2 per game since), the biggest difference is a drop in walks.

Through June 2, the Nats drew an average of 2.9 walks per game. Since then, they’ve drawn a measly 1.4 per game. Yes, their walk rate has been cut in half.

Davey Martinez has noted his team’s penchant for chasing pitches out of the zone too much in recent weeks. But that’s not leading to strikeouts. They’ve actually cut their strikeout rate from 7.1 per game to 6.5 per game. They’re putting bat on ball on a good number of pitches outside the strike zone, but as you’d expect they’re not making solid contact on those pitches.

It sounds simple, but the Nationals need to swing at more strikes and take more balls.

ROTATION
The Nats were a far more competitive team through the first two months of this season than they were all of last season in large part because their starters gave them a chance almost every night. They weren’t necessarily dominating, but they weren’t digging their team into massive holes as often as they did in 2022.

There’s been some regression in that department, though, over the last 2 1/2 weeks. Through June 2, Nationals starters had a 4.46 ERA and 1.466 WHIP. Not great, but not terrible. Since then, their ERA has jumped to 5.18 and their WHIP to 1.594.

Starters are actually going deeper in games (5.3 innings now vs. 5.2 innings previously) but they’re giving up more hits and ultimately more runs.

BULLPEN
The biggest strength of the 2022 team has become one of the biggest weaknesses of the 2023 team. The Nats bullpen already was struggling through the season’s first 57 games, with a 4.61 ERA and 1.414 WHIP. But it’s gotten worse since. Over the last 14 games, relievers have an unsightly 5.51 ERA and 1.510 WHIP.

Among the bullpen’s biggest problems? Walks. Since June 3, that group has walked an average of 4.2 batters per nine innings. Yes, that’s a rate three times as high as the rate of Nationals batters reaching via walk during this same rough stretch.

There are plenty of things the Nats simply can’t just get better at this deep into a season. They aren’t suddenly going to become a home run threat at the plate, and they aren’t suddenly going to get dominant starting pitching.

But if nothing else, if the Nationals just started drawing a few more walks and issuing fewer of them to their opponents, the difference might just be noticeable enough to start playing respectable baseball again.