Rutledge finally arrived in D.C., but is he ready to stay?

PLAYER REVIEW: JACKSON RUTLEDGE

Age on Opening Day 2024: 24

How acquired: First-round pick, 2019 Draft

MLB service time: 19 days

2023 salary: $720,000

Contract status: Under club control, arbitration-eligible in 2027, free agent in 2030

2023 stats: 1-1, 6.75 ERA, 4 G, 4 GS, 20 IP, 24 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 4 HR, 6 BB, 12 SO, 2 HBP, 1.500 WHIP, 65 ERA+, 5.86 FIP, -0.2 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR

Quotable: “I think it was a confidence-builder for me. Last year, I was struggling to get out of the third inning against the Delmarva Shorebirds. And now I’m pitching into the fifth against the Atlanta Braves. That’s a big difference. Obviously, I didn’t want to give up five runs today. But going forward, I know I can pitch at this level. Having that confidence going forward that I’m in a good spot is important.” – Jackson Rutledge

2023 analysis: A highly touted prospect when he was selected 17th in the nation out of San Jacinto Junior College, Rutledge looked like a pitcher who could be on a fast track to the majors. His path proved far longer and more winding than he or the Nationals hoped. Injuries, poor performances and the lost 2020 season due to the pandemic left the tall right-hander having yet to reach Double-A prior to this season.

Rutledge finally began to put it all together, though. He went 6-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 12 starts for Harrisburg, earning a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. And though his numbers (2-3, 4.44 ERA) weren’t as impressive there, he pitched well enough to merit a mid-September promotion to the majors and the opportunity to stick around through the season’s final three weeks.

Rutledge’s Sept. 13 debut in Pittsburgh was shaky, especially a first inning that saw him surrender four runs on six hits. But he was much better his next two starts, holding the White Sox to two solo homers over 6 1/3 innings and then holding the Braves to one run over five innings.

Unfortunate scheduling left Rutledge in line to make another start against the Braves to close out his season, this time in Atlanta on the season’s final day. The results weren’t as positive in the rematch: five runs in five innings.

2024 outlook: The Nationals have long hoped Rutledge could be part of their big league rotation when the club is ready to contend again. But did he show enough this season to suggest he’s ready for the assignment on a full-time basis?

A more dominant performance at Triple-A would’ve helped, to be sure, but not every good major leaguer was dominant at Triple-A. Rutledge certainly seems to have a big league fastball (average 95.8 mph), and he has the ability to be effective with it up in the zone, which isn’t something several other members of the Nats rotation can say.

Rutledge’s slider also was effective, with opponents going just 2-for-14 with four strikeouts and a 34.1 percent whiff rate on the pitch, though he threw it mostly to righties. He went after left-handed hitters with a changeup that he and club officials talked up prior to his debut but proved far more hittable: Opponents went a whopping 10-for-20 with a double, two homers and zero strikeouts on that pitch, putting 20 of the 44 changeups he threw overall into play. That’s not going to cut it long-term.

In a perfect world, the Nationals will have the luxury to send Rutledge back to Rochester to begin the 2024 season, let him work on a few more things and then call him up both when he’s ready and there’s a need in the rotation. The problem: Barring the acquisition of another veteran starter this winter, the choice for No. 5 starter come Opening Day might well be Rutledge or Trevor Williams. The Nats won’t want to force the issue and put a rookie in the rotation if they don’t believe he’s ready, but they also could determine the alternative is no better and be willing to let their 2019 first-round pick take some lumps in the big leagues while gaining experience.