What's at stake in tonight's Hall of Fame election

It’s Hall of Fame election night, and while that may not be huge news here in Washington, it’s big news across the baseball world at large.

At 6 p.m. Eastern, we’ll learn the names of the newest residents of Cooperstown, and it could be a sizeable list for the first time in several years.

The votes all were submitted before New Year’s Day, so there’s been plenty of time for everyone to speculate and pontificate on the eventual results. The ever-present Hall of Fame Tracker by Ryan Thibodaux has once again given interested fans and media members alike tantalizing evidence of what we may learn tonight, based on the ballots that already were made public by some members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

If you’ve been reading me for a while, you already know that I’ve been a voter since 2011 but I don’t reveal my ballot until after the results are announced. Please do check back this evening for my full column explaining why I did or did not vote for each of the 26 players who appeared on this year’s ballot.

But since there’s nothing else to do between now and then but delude ourselves into thinking the Nationals might actually make some news for the first time in weeks, let’s look at some of the major storylines heading into tonight’s announcement …

* ARE BELTRE AND MAUER SLAM DUNKS ON THEIR FIRST BALLOT?
There were two really strong newcomers to this year’s ballot: Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer. And based on what we know from the ballots already revealed, both look like locks to be elected. Beltre, one of only seven players in major-league history with 3,000 hits, 600 doubles and 400 homers, had nearly 99 percent support on early-release ballots. (Remember: 75 percent support equals election.) Mauer is less of a sure thing, but his 82 percent support so far suggests he’s in good shape, guaranteeing two new inductees in their first year of eligibility.

* COULD HELTON AND WAGNER MAKE IT A FOUR-MAN CLASS?
It may not just be Beltre and Mauer on the stage in Cooperstown this summer, though. Todd Helton and Billy Wagner look like they’re going to be right on the cusp of 75 percent, perhaps only a few votes above or below the magic number. Both have waited a long time to reach this point, and both have seen their support steadily rise over the years, with Helton coming oh-so-close last year at 72.2 percent and Wagner right behind him at 68.1 percent. If they’re both elected tonight, this could be only the fourth four-man Hall of Fame class since 1955, not to mention equal to the total number of players elected by the BBWAA in the last four years combined.

* IS THERE AN UNEXPECTED SURPRISE IN STORE?
Is there any chance of a five-man class? It’s unlikely, but not impossible. Three other returning players were sitting at 60 percent or higher on the Tracker: Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran. Each has a strong case, but each also has a major red flag holding him back. For Sheffield, it’s PED connections. For Jones, it’s the dramatic drop-off in his career after age 30. For Beltran, it’s the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal he helped coordinate. Jones and Beltran will remain on the ballot beyond this year, but Sheffield is down to his 10th and final opportunity. We’ve seen other borderline candidates receive a big bump in their final year of eligibility. Could that bump be big enough in Sheffield’s case to propel him into Cooperstown?

* HOW DOES THE PHILLIES’ MIDDLE INFIELD FARE?
Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins will forever be connected, no matter what happens with their respective Hall of Fame candidacies. The double-play combo of some great Phillies teams of the late 2000s, they’re tied at the hip. Some believe both should go to the Hall together. Some believe one is more worthy than the other (usually Utley over Rollins). Some don’t think either was good enough. We’ll find out tonight just how much support each man has, and how much hope there is of an eventual election for one or both infielders.

* WHO STAYS ON THE BALLOT ANOTHER YEAR?
There aren’t any other obvious first-timers with a shot at getting elected tonight, but history has shown it’s possible to get elected years later even with minimal support in year one. But no matter what, a player must be named on at least 5 percent of ballots to qualify for the next year’s vote. And that’s not always a guarantee. So even though they aren’t going to be elected tonight, it’s still a big night for David Wright, Torii Hunter, Jose Bautista and Matt Holliday to try to be named on enough ballots to return in 2025. If not, they could wind up one and done.