A take on Mark Trumbo's return

In the end, the deal just simply must have been too good for the Orioles to pass up.

They were able to agree to re-sign Mark Trumbo, the major league home run leader, for a three-year deal worth $37.5 million, according to FanRag Sports. That is $37.5 million for a player that began free agency reportedly seeking $70 million or more and who reportedly turned a down a deal at one point from the Orioles for four years and $52 million.

Remember when Dan Duquette talked about his interest in the draft pick the Orioles would have gotten had Trumbo signed elsewhere? He talked about pursuing players on shorter deals. That may have been public negotiating and, in the end, the Orioles retained a player they seemed to want back all the time. If the price was right - and today it surely was.

mark-trumbo-back-gray-swing.jpgTrumbo hit .256/.316/.533 with 47 homers, 108 RBIs, and an .850 OPS. He ranked tied for sixth in the American League in RBIs and he tied for ninth in slugging. He hit 28 homers in the first half and was selected to his second All-Star team.

Trumbo's 47 homers led the majors by four over the next closest on the list, Seattle's Nelson Cruz with 43. Trumbo was rewarded with a Silver Slugger, the first by an Oriole since 2013.

The 2016 AL leaders in at-bats per home run:
13.04 - Mark Trumbo, Orioles
13.21 - Khris Davis, Athletics
13.70 - Nelson Cruz, Mariners
14.13 - David Ortiz, Red Sox
14.31 - Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

With the potential for outfield platoons including lefty batters Hyun Soo Kim in left field and Seth Smith in right field, Trumbo seems in line to get most of his at-bats at the DH spot in 2017. Last year, he got 62 percent of his at-bats while in the lineup as an outfielder and 38 percent as the DH.

The Orioles are gambling a bit here, banking on Trumbo to produce at or near his 2016 numbers. Before last year, his previous top homer total was 34, his previous best slugging was .506 and his top OPS was .808.

His bat seems well suited for Camden Yards, where he batted .254/.334/.550. That is where he hit 25 of his 47 homers and produced an OPS of .884 (which was .818 on the road).

The Orioles were last in the AL in 2016 in slugging (.391) and OPS (.692). against left-handed pitching. Trumbo had a rare year of poor stats in hitting southpaws.

Trumbo against left-handers:
2016: .173/.223/.386
2015: .289/.330/.526
2014: .250/.333/.463

Perhaps the O's and their fans can expect much better numbers from Trumbo against left-handers. His career stats are .251/.298/.489 against left-handers and 2016 looks like the outlier here.

What is your take on Trumbo's return?




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