Another look at the pitching and the starting rotation

When you compare the 2014 Orioles pitching staff to the 2015 version, the 2014 team wins easily. That certainly is no big surprise to anyone who watched the team drop from 96 to 81 wins.

We've been hearing words like "bounceback" and "rebound," and we are not talking about basketball here. We're talking about the Orioles' ability to pitch as individuals and collectively as well as they did in 2014.

Is that realistic?

Comparing the pitching the last two seasons:

2014: 3.43 ERA, .244 average against, .690 OPS, 1.24 WHIP, 151 homers allowed, 78 quality starts.
2015: 4.05 ERA, .257 average against, .739 OPS, 1.32 WHIP, 174 homers allowed, 72 quality starts.

The 2015 Orioles actually struck out more batters (7.73 per nine innings to 7.23) and had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.55 to 2.45). The 2015 Orioles induced more ground balls with a rate of 45.2 percent to 43.8 percent. But that sure didn't help last year's team in the homer department, since they gave up so many more.

Two others stats where last year's staff fared decidedly worse were left-on-base percentage and batting average of balls in play. The LOB percentage fell from 77.0 in 2014 to 73.6 percent. The BABIP went from .280 to .298. According to FanGraphs, the O's staff actually produced more in the WAR stat last year at 15.7 to 14.0.

The Orioles will return the pitchers that made 63.6 percent of the team's 2014 starts. They no longer have two pitchers - Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris - that combined for 59 starts that season. But in 2014, Chris Tillman made 34 starts, Miguel Gonzalez 26, Ubaldo Jimenez 22, Kevin Gausman 20 and T.J. McFarland one.

As for Tillman, from 2012-14, he went a combined 38-16 with an ERA of 3.42. In those years, he ranked tied for 11th in the American League in wins and was 15th in ERA. Then he went 11-11 with an ERA of 4.99 last year.

Tillman got crushed by the Toronto Blue Jays. He went 0-4 with an ERA of 11.72 in six starts. His ERA was a more respectable 3.84 in his other 2015 starts. Yet Tillman did not have a sub-4.00 ERA against any American League East team. His ERA was 4.09 versus Boston, 4.79 against Tampa Bay and 4.91 against New York. Yep, he simply must do better.

From 2012-14, Gonzalez went 30-21 with an ERA of 3.45 and the Orioles went 40-29 (.580) in his starts. But in 2015, Gonzalez went 9-12 with an ERA of 4.91, a career worst. The Orioles went 12-14 (.462) when Gonzalez took the mound. But Gonzalez had an ERA of 3.33 on June 10 of last year when he went on the disabled list with a right groin strain.

The case for Gonzalez bouncing back to pitch well again in 2016 could be made by his three-year track record going into 2015 and his performance last year before he got hurt. The case for him to potentially struggle again could be made by the fact some of his stats have declined every year from 2012 through last year. For instance, his hits per nine innings starting in 2012 are 7.9, 8.2, 8.8 and 9.4.

Jimenez made an improvement, but still had an ERA more than 4.00 last year. He went from an ERA of 4.81 and 1.516 WHIP in 2014 to an ERA of 4.11 and WHIP of 1.359 last year.

But after pitching to an ERA of 2.81 with a 1.268 WHIP in 17 first-half starts, Jimenez had an ERA of 5.63 and 1.464 WHIP in the second half of last season. Yep, that is concerning.

Gausman may be the real X-factor here. After making 20 starts two years ago and 17 last season, he should get a real shot at 30 or more for the first time in the big leagues. With more starts than ever and improvement from the right-hander, Gausman's impact on the 2016 rotation could be more significant than any other pitcher on the staff.

I'm being Captain Obvious here, but the four pitchers we've mentioned are going to have a whole lot to say about how the rotation and the team does next season. That is whether the fifth starter is a pitcher already on the team or not.

So can they bounce back and rebound?

Shorebirds heat up the stove: The Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds hosted their Hot Stove Banquet last night at the Wicomico Youth and Civic Center. Orioles director of minor league operations Kent Qualls was the keynote speaker. The banquet also featured Delmarva skipper Ryan Minor and Gary Kendall, the manager of the 2015 Double-A Eastern League champion Bowie Baysox. Click here for a story on last night's affair.

The Shorebirds recently named Brendan Gulick the team's new director of broadcasting. As the new voice of the Shorebirds, he will broadcast all 140 games on FOXSports AM 960 and theshorebirds.com while also assisting in the team's communications efforts.

A native of Cleveland, Ohio, and a graduate of John Carroll University, Gulick comes to Delmarva with a wealth of announcing experience. His past positions include freelance work with numerous colleges and he is also currently serving as the play-by-play announcer for Maryland-Eastern Shore basketball. Gulick also served as a broadcast and media relations assistant with the Single-A Dayton Dragons during the 2014 season.