As Mike Elias takes over, will he follow the plan from Houston?

As the Orioles introduce Mike Elias today as their new executive vice president and general manager, we will hear from him for the first time as an Oriole. It should be a great opportunity for Elias to present his vision and plan for the future.

There are no handbooks or sure-fire guidelines for rebuilding baseball teams, and there must be many ways to build a winner, but things that have worked for a long time still work in the sport.

Nelson-Cruz-black-sidebar.jpgLike starting with a strong foundation in scouting and player development. The Orioles built a five-year winner that featured homegrown talent from 2012-2016, and this is always a great place to start.

Houston drafted some core position player talent in Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and George Springer. Correa was the No. 1 overall pick in 2012, Bregman No. 2 overall in 2015 and Springer No. 11 overall in 2011. You have to hit on some high draft picks.

Houston drafted Dallas Keuchel in round seven of the 2009 draft. Scoring big on an unheralded draft pick surely helps, too. But no one can expect to get a Cy Young Winner in round seven.

They signed second baseman Jose Altuve out of Venezuela in March 2007. Altuve was signed at 17, played in the majors at 21 but really didn't become a star until 24. You have to hit on some international signings and then have patience. It will take a while between being a teenager just starting out and reaching the major leagues and developing into an All-Star.

Houston was deep enough in prospect capital to make trades for pitchers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, both of whom were acquired after the team had already begun winning. Much earlier they had traded for Marwin Gonzalez. You have to hit on some trades.

Sometimes you have to be both lucky and good. Right-hander Charlie Morton had a 4.02 ERA from 2012-2016. Then Houston signed him in November 2016 to a two-year deal that could top out at $19 million with incentives. In two seasons with Houston, Morton has gone 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA. Did Houston know something? Or did the Astros turn a decent pitcher into a good one?

Sometimes you have to be smart with your money. Reportedly, one reason that Houston selected Correa with the No. 1 pick in 2012 was signability. Sure, they felt he'd be good, but they also felt they could sign him quickly and save some money for elsewhere in the draft. Correa signed for $4.8 million, but the slot value for the pick was $7.2 million. The Astros weren't cheap, they were smart.

Some of the savings then went to their next selection, when their second pick that draft was pitcher Lance McCullers Jr., taken No. 41 overall. He signed for $2.5 million, which was $1.24 million over slot. He got a bonus commensurate with a pick that would have been taken 12th or 13th that year.

Just yesterday in this blog, I presented that possibility for the Orioles with the No. 1 pick in June 2019. In what will turn out to be their first pick under Elias, they will have a projected slot value of $8.4 million for that No. 1 selection. With a figure that large, they could get a top talent and then get a second top talent with savings, as Houston did with Correa and McCullers in 2012.

A lot of the rebuilding for Elias will take place beyond player acquisitions. It will be in what he puts in place in non-player positions and infrastructure, perhaps even how the organization evaluates talent moving forward. Building an organization that will be unified and energized will be important. Adding the analytics element both for player usage in games and evaluation usage by the front office will be big.

So much to do, but so necessary.

If the Orioles are going to have a chance to compete in the American League East in the next five to 10 years, a lot must go right. The division has two big spenders that are run well in Boston and New York. And two other clubs that have fertile farm systems in Toronto and Tampa Bay. And while the Rays don't spend big, Toronto can.

The Cubs and Astros built World Series winners from 100-loss teams. Neither had to do it in the AL East. The task is daunting, but later today we begin to find out how Elias will try to pull that off.




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Positive reviews on Elias accompany today's intro ...
 

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