It's too soon for a top free agent to look for a one-year deal

Before the narrative got completely out of hand, Justin Upton's agent put the word out. His client is not currently looking to sign a one-year deal or a short-term deal.

It was another "report" that got out that proved to not be accurate. The combination of pressure to be first to report something and the speed with which that something moves via social media had agent Larry Reynolds ready to end such Upton speculation.

In November, MLBTradeRumors.com projected that the top free agent outfielder could get a seven-year deal worth $147 million. So why now would Upton lower that to accept a one-year deal?

Baseballs generic.jpgNo reason is the answer. There is nearly three months left until the season starts and about two months until Upton would need to report to spring training to have enough time to get ready for the opener. To accept a one-year deal now would just be about panic or needless concern that time is running out. It's not. Not yet.

A player as good as Upton could take a one-year contract later. He would get many offers. Agreeing to sign for one year might bring many teams into play for his services. That option is there for him, but it is not nearly the time for him to consider that.

Upton, who will be 28 on opening day, hit .251/.336/.454 with 26 doubles, three triples, 26 homers, 81 RBIs and a .790 OPS last season for San Diego.

Upton, who has hit 82 homers the last three years, has career numbers of .271/.352/.473. His OPS has topped .818 in three of the last five years and is .825 for his career. At just 28, he may be coming into seasons where he can exceed those numbers. He is that rare free agent that may play well throughout the entire length of a five or six-year deal.

Barring a real surprise, the long-term deal should very much still be out there for him. The one-year deal is a clear fallback option, whenever he wants to go that route. He likely will not have to.

Some have compared Upton to Nelson Cruz, who signed a one-year deal with the Orioles when he was a free agent after the 2013 season. His hope to get a $75 million deal then never materialized. But Cruz was 32 then, not 28, and coming off a 50-game suspension for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. He also had never hit more than 33 homers when he signed with the Orioles. Now he has hit 40 and 44 the last two seasons.

O's fans are clearly getting anxious and worried about the club's 2016 roster makeup at this point. But there is plenty of time left. That is true on the other side as well. No need for a key free agent like Upton or Yoenis Cespedes or Chris Davis to jump at an offer now. They have time to pursue the mega-dollar deals now with the option to sign for one year later.




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