Key offseason topic still front and center: When to trade the prospects?

If on Opening Day the Orioles infield was Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg, that would be formidable. Four players that have been top 100 prospects at one time and two that made it to No. 1.

But that would leave no room for others to include vets Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urías and Ryan O’Hearn who are on the 40-man infield and yes of course someone could DH. But it would also leave no room for Joey Ortiz in that infield, or Coby Mayo, or Connor Norby.

The O's organization is deep and filled with prospects at the higher levels after they produced eight Baseball America top 100 players in January of 2023 and six this year.

So yes, one way to alleviate a so-called logjam of talent is to trade from a surplus. This topic dogs the Orioles, who should be able to take a bow or two for the great farm system they have compiled. But at the same time, they get constant questions about how they are going to deploy all that talent.

I recently talked to Baseball America editor-in-chief JJ Cooper on this most interesting challenge for the club.

“I don’t have any special inside info on this, but there is a challenge of this. You want to make the right deals obviously, but at the same time, this is a very good problem to have. One most organizations don’t have,” said Cooper.

“You also don’t want your prospects to become stale. There comes a point once a player has kind of done everything they can do in the minors, developmentally there is a not a lot to be gained by spending more time in the minors. Also sometimes trade values get effected by that. So, one of the challenges that I do think the Orioles face is you want to make the right deal, you don’t want to overpay, and all those things makes sense. But at the same time, you look at the Norfolk team that finished the year that won the title in Triple-A and you see players there that if they spend another full year in Norfolk next year, will their value be diminished?

“They have players that have shown that they can handle that level. Or maybe they need a little bit more time, but they probably don’t need a full year. Now, a lot of times those problems rectify themselves. Injuries happen. You have to move a guy up and all the sudden he fills that role.

“The Orioles have some very good logjams coming up as I see it. Those are good problems to have. You’d rather have those problems then not have players to fill those spots.”

Some of the O’s young talent has already seen at least some time in the majors, but not all of them of course. As for their Triple-A experience, Colton Cowser has now played 114 games with an .896 OPS at that level. Norby has played 147 games with an OPS of .860 for Norfolk while Ortiz has 114 games with an OPS of .904, Mayo has an OPS of .905 over 62 games and Heston Kjerstad an OPS of .870 over 76 Triple-A games.

“How is the Orioles infield going to sort out and how will the outfield sort out over the next three months and six months?” asked Cooper. “Obviously one of the ways you sort that out is make trades where you fill a need elsewhere. It doesn’t mean you are going to be able to trade from a surplus. Sometimes you have to trade players you really like. That still doesn’t always alleviate the issues. Look at this team – there are more big leaguers and upper-level minor league players who are pretty close or ready, position player wise especially, than there are probably spots available in that lineup.

"That is the kind of challenge you want to have but when you look at the Orioles and say, ‘Will they make a trade?’ it would seem a lot of sense that they would. I can’t emphasize enough what a good problem it is, but at some point, you have to alleviate it.”

And some players are very driven on the way up through the farm but if they spend too much time at one level, it can get more challenging sometimes.

“If you have a player that has already shown they can handle Triple-A and you send them back – not because they need more time there, but you just don’t have an opening - you would rather they get at-bats there then sit on the bench in the big leagues. Sometimes you will see examples where a player just doesn’t have the same mental focus because they are getting a little stale. That sometimes can lead to diminished value as well," Cooper added.