Matt Kremnitzer: O's need to put right pieces around Machado

Going into next year and beyond, there's a lot to be worried about when it comes to the Orioles. There are plenty of question marks: Which players will return? Who will leave for other teams? Will the farm system improve? Will the Orioles rectify their player development issues? How long do Dan Duquette and/or Buck Showalter stick around?

At the same time, though, the Orioles also have the luxury of a young superstar to build around: Manny Machado. Somehow still only 23, Machado is approaching 450 games played in his young career despite two freak knee injuries that cut short his tremendous 2013 campaign and spoiled the beginning and end of his 2014 season. Regardless, he's exceeded all expectations, and the only surprise is that his defensive dominance has come at third base instead of shortstop. Machado isn't Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but he's right behind them.

Offensively, Machado has improved in each season since his debut in 2012:

2012: 97 wRC+
2013: 102 wRC+
2014: 110 wRC+
2015: 132 wRC+

This season, Machado has doubled his walk rate (from around 5 percent to 10 percent), cut down on his strikeout rate, increased his on-base and power numbers, and hit 30 home runs (mostly out of the leadoff spot). Among all qualified major league third basemen, Machado ranks fourth in wRC+, second in wins above replacement (6.5), fifth in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging percentage.

His swing and contact rates are also better across the board, and his improved plate discipline was something that Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs smartly noticed and analyzed early in the season. For a while, there was at least some concern that Machado chased too many pitches and didn't draw enough walks. But any criticism in that department has rightly vanished.

Machado has even swiped 18 bases, though he's been caught stealing eight times (suggesting he should pick his spots better or maybe not run as much). Still, it's at least a good sign that his knees are healthy - along with Machado being the current major league leader in consecutive games played.

On top of the offensive jump forward, Machado's defense is still outstanding. By FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating data, Machado ranks second among all third basemen behind Adrian Beltre. According to Defensive Runs Saved data available on Baseball-Reference.com, Machado is tied for second with Nolan Arenado (with Beltre again leading the way). Machado may never again reach the defensive excellence he showcased in 2013, but he's still very, very good, and whatever worry fans had about him regaining any lost range at third base is gone.

Together with Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop, Machado helps form a talented core of position players in Baltimore. Jones is under contract through 2018 and Schoop will turn 24 in mid-October. If Schoop is able to provide solid defense and power at second base, he'll be a valuable commodity and a pretty nice complement to Machado (particularly if Machado eventually moves to shortstop).

Speaking of a possible move to shortstop, Machado and the O's face an interesting dilemma with J.J. Hardy. Hardy is under contract for two more years (with a club option), but he's been abysmal at the plate this season. If the O's tried to deal him, they'd likely be selling low on him and would also have to eat some money to ship him out of town (all but eliminating any possibility of a trade). Perhaps the O's could get a low prospect in return or would be able to swap bad contracts with another team, but the main reason for the move would be transitioning Machado back to shortstop. Again, it's extremely unlikely considering the number of moves the O's may have to make this offseason, but it would be intriguing, to say the least.

Machado will be eligible for arbitration for the first time next season and he's going to get expensive in a hurry. Fans are quick to bring up an extension when discussing Machado, and for good reason. Any long-term deal for Machado will dwarf Jones's contract, previously the largest contract in team history. So if the O's want Machado to stick around, it won't be cheap. Of course, you could always bring up the topic of trading Machado - but nope, I can't go further than that.

The important thing is that Machado is awesome and the Orioles have him under team control for a few more years. So even if they make all the wrong moves this offseason and aren't able to push for a playoff spot, Machado will be around for a while and he'll be fun to watch. So at least there's that. How's that for ending the season on a positive?

Matt Kremnitzer blogs about the Orioles at Camden Depot. Follow him on Twitter: @mattkremnitzer. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.




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