Notes on Mark Trumbo, Chris Lee and Michael Bourn

When it comes to free agents, looks can deceive and there are always surprises. But the current thinking is that 2016 Oriole Mark Trumbo will be with another team in 2017. Were Dan Duquette's recent comments confirmation of that?

Overanalyzing any GM's comments at any time can be risky, but Duquette said Sunday on MLB Network Radio: "We kind of like the value of that draft pick that's been enhanced with the negotiation from the new collective bargaining agreement. In other words, it's about the last time that you can acquire that level of pick for a compensation draft pick.

"The level is diluted after this year, so we like the draft pick and we like some of the other options, some of the shorter-term options on the market that look to be a little bit more cost-effective for the club. That's how we're proceeding in terms of assembling our team to have a good, competitive team again next year."

That sounded like a goodbye. Of course it also could have been a message to Trumbo to accept the Orioles' four-year offer for $52 million soon or look for another team.

My take has been that the team has to consider moving on from Trumbo, despite the fact he had such a great year and was a great fit in the clubhouse. A four-year deal would tie up some future dollars that could go for arbitration bonuses or contract extensions. If Trumbo was going to play first base (where his defense is solid) his value would go up, but as an outfielder, he is below average. As a DH, if he could produce similar to last year, he would probably be a bargain at that price.

Have we seen the last Trumb-bomb in Baltimore?

Don't forget him: Orioles pitching prospect Chris Lee said yesterday that he is close to throwing off a mound. He didn't pitch after late May last year due to a lat strain and what some reports said was a shoulder issue. But Lee is rated as the Orioles' No. 9 prospect, per Baseball America. He is their second-highest-rated left-handed starting pitching prospect behind Keegan Akin, who is ranked No. 6.

We should not forget that Lee has gone 9-2 with an ERA of 3.02 in 15 games the last two years at Double-A. His fastball touched 95 mph with sink. His slider flashed plus and got swings and misses from lefties, who were held to a .155 average. He has decent feel for a changeup. You need lefty starters. If Lee regains full health as expected, he could find his way to Baltimore this summer. He was added to the 40-man roster after the 2015 season. If he had not gotten hurt, no doubt we would have seen him at some point last year.

If Lee ever does make it into the Baltimore rotation and has success, he will make his acquisition look like a steal. The Orioles traded with the Houston Astros to get him in May 2015 for two international bonus slots worth $655,800. He had not pitched above low Single-A ball in the Houston organization, but the Orioles quickly moved him to Double-A after 14 starts in 2015 for Single-A Frederick.

Bourn again in Baltimore?: The Orioles have never indicated they did not want outfielder Michael Bourn back, but there has been very little buzz about the free agent this winter. But a FOXSports.com report yesterday said the club retains interest in Bourn, even after adding Seth Smith.

Bourn ended 2016 with the Orioles after they acquired him on Aug. 31 for minor leaguer Jason Heinrich. Bourn started in right field, batting eighth, for the Orioles in the American League wild card game, going 1-for-4.

In 55 plate appearances for the Orioles, Bourn hit .283/.358/.435. Earlier, in 358 plate appearances for Arizona, he hit .261/.307/.362. In his career, he has hit .266/.329/.357.

He has stolen 50 or more bases three times in his career, but not since 2011. He would add some speed to the team, but doesn't figure to bring too much in the OBP department. He turned 34 in December.

Defense could be a factor in the O's interest in Bourn. No Orioles outfielder rated in the plus category last year in the defensive metric Defensive Runs Saved, where zero is average. But Bourn was plus-1 when you counted his time in 2016 with both Arizona and Baltimore. He was a plus-6 in 2015, minus-5 in 2014, plus-2 in 2013 and plus-23 in 2012.

Hyun Soo Kim rated minus-13 in DRS saved last year with Trumbo at minus-11 and Adam Jones at minus-10. As a group, Orioles outfielders ranked last in the AL in 2016 at minus-51 defensive runs saved.

Baseball snow day: Finally, this from Triple-A Norfolk:

We're not big fans of winter, but Harbor Park sure looks pretty covered in snow. ☃️⚾️👌🏼 pic.twitter.com/2UAoxd3d0D

-- Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) January 10, 2017