Opposite dugout: Surprising Astros are a study in statistical contrasts

AstrosLogo.jpgManager: A.J. Hinch (1st season)

Record: 29-16

Last 10 games: 7-3

Who to watch: 2B Jose Altuve (.294/.345/.428 with 5 HR, 25 RBIs, 14 SB), CF Jake Marisnick (.281 with 16 RBIs and 9 SB), LF Colby Rasmus (8 HR, 17 RBIs), LHP Dallas Keuchel (6-0, 1.67 ERA), RHP Luke Gregerson (12 saves)

Season series vs. Orioles: First meeting (3-4 in 2014)

Pitching probables:

May 25: LHP Dallas Keuchel vs. LHP Wei-Yin Chen, 1:35 p.m., MASN
May 26: RHP Scott Feldman vs. RHP Chris Tillman, 7:05 p.m., MASN
May 27: RHP Collin McHugh vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, 4:35 p.m., MASN

Inside the Astros:

Everyone knew the Astros had plenty of power, decent pitching and more promising prospects than you could shake a scouting report at. But few people outside of Houston - and, really, not so many there, either - expected what's happened so far this season. The Astros have won an American League-high 29 games and lead the AL West by 6 1/2 games over the Los Angeles Angels.

A.J. Hinch, the former major league catcher who had a turn as the Diamondbacks' skipper in 2009-2010 before moving to the Padres as a scouting director, has done an admirable job in his first season at Houston's helm. When he talked in spring training about the Astros believing they could win because he believed in them, it was viewed as manager-speak designed to instill some faith within and in his team. Well, he must have been a lot more convincing than most people thought, because Hinch's leadership and a sabermetric-heavy roster assembled by general manager Jeff Luhnow has done little but succeed.

A cursory examination of the team's rankings in offensive categories makes you wonder how that's happened. The Astros are hitting .231, the worst batting average in the majors and their .303 on-base percentage ranks 13th in the AL. But they're getting enough hits to score the fifth-most runs in the bigs and have slugged 64 home runs, the most in the majors. Throw in 41 steals (tied for third-most in the majors) and you've got the makings of an offense that doesn't rely on just one facet to succeed. But the Astros also strike out a lot, too - their 415 whiffs are second only to the Cubs' 424.

At the top of the lineup is speedy second baseman Jose Altuve, who led the AL in hitting last year with a .341 mark. This year, he's hitting only .294, but he's driven in 25 runs and stolen 14 bases (last year, his 56 swipes topped the AL). There are plenty of power sticks behind him in the lineup. Third baseman Luis Valbuena leads the team with 10 homers (but, almost incredibly, has driven in only 16 runs) and left fielder Colby Rasmus, who signed a one-year, $8 million deal in the offseason, has chipped in eight longballs. Evan Gattis, who has played mostly as a designated hitter after arriving in a trade from Atlanta, has nine homers and a team-high 28 RBIs - even though his average is hovering around the Mendoza line. But that's still better than the .170 mark owned by first baseman Chris Carter, who has seven homers and 20 RBIs (but 62 strikeouts in 147 at-bats, the definition of all or nothing).

Right fielder George Springer is an exciting player, and his stats are depressed only by a concussion he suffered when crashing into a wall while trying to make a catch. Center fielder Jake Marisnick has tailed off after hitting .397 in April and is now batting .281. Lurking at Triple-A is Carlos Correa, a sweet-swinging shortstop who was the first overall pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. Folks in Houston are eagerly awaiting his arrival, which could come sometime in early June, maybe even by the time the O's visit Minute Maid Park.

While the Astros bats have been hit or miss with the bats, the pitching has been pretty solid. Lefty Dallas Keuchel was the AL Pitcher of the Month for April and his 6-0 start is the best in Houston since Roger Clemens started the 2004 season with a 9-0 mark. What the Astros lack in terms of an overpowering stud pitcher, they make up for in reliability throughout the rotation and a sneaky-good bullpen that has posted a 2.14 ERA and .186 batting average against, tops in the majors. In his first extended shot as a closer after signing with Houston as a free agent in the offseason, righty Luke Gregerson has converted 12 saves in 13 opportunities.

Keuchel draws the assignment in Monday's Memorial Day matinee and has won his last eight decisions dating to his last loss on Aug. 21. He's been a model of consistency, logging at least six innings pitched in all nine of his 2015 starts, and is coming off seven innings against the A's in which he yielded six hits and an unearned run in seven innings. He's lately been getting opponents to drive the ball into the ground for easy outs - in May he's recorded 54 groundball outs to nine flyball outs. And he's not hurting himself with the home run ball, having allowed only one in 64 2/3 innings. On the road, he's 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA, and no one's hitting much off him. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .196 batting average against, while he's held foes to a .186 mark overall. Though he's never pitched at Camden Yards, Keuchel has a lifetime 1-1 record with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Orioles. To beat him, you've got to hit an 89 mph fastball that accounts for about 58 percent of his pitches, while he turns to a 79 mph slider 16 percent of the time.

On Tuesday, the Orioles face an old friend, righty Scott Feldman, a part of their 2012 playoff club. While Feldman has been regularly pitching deep into games - he's worked six or more innings in seven of nine starts - he's got only a 5.17 ERA to show for the effort. Feldman is a poster boy for reverse splits: He should handle right-handers, who batter him at a .321 clip with seven homers, while holding lefty swingers to a .258 average. There's not much difference between Feldman's straight fastball, which averages 90 mph and is thrown one out of every three pitches, and his cut fastball, an 88 mph offering that comes 41 percent of the time. The first inning is his trouble spot - he's yielded a .465 average and 11 RBIs in the opening frame. In his first 15 pitches of a game, opponents have a .407 average (and are hitting him at .299 overall). He's 4-2 with a 4.85 ERA in his career against the Orioles, and 7-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 17 games (13 starts) at Camden Yards.

Right-hander Collin McHugh gets the call for Wednesday's game, and has had an interesting May. He's worked seven or more innings in four of five starts this month, but has surrendered six homers in 33 innings pitched. If the weather warms up and the humidity rises for the 4:35 p.m. start, that could be a combination that works against McHugh. He allows baserunners - opponents have a .306 average with no runners on - but toughens when he has to, resulting in a .214 average with runners on. McHugh is 2-0 with a 3.224 ERA on the road. His go-to pitch is an 86 mph slider, which he throws about 44 percent of the time, though he'll also mix in a 90 mph fastball (27 percent of his pitches) and a 74 mph curve (23 percent).




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