Orioles rotation uncertainty creates messy bullpen projections

Want an endorsement for the Orioles trading for a starting pitcher rather than competing in the free agent market?

Michael Wacha received a two-year, $32 million contract from the Royals that included an opt-out clause after the first season. Good for him. And good for Kansas City, which committed a reported $105 million to six free agents.

Wacha can earn $16 million in each season. He’s gone on the injured list nine times in his career, five due to shoulder issues.

The oblique, knee, hamstring and intercostal muscle also are responsible.

Every contract comes with certain risks. Wacha can be really good when able to pitch, but he hasn’t topped 134 1/3 innings since 2017.

MLBTradeRumors.com predicted that Jack Flaherty would be paid $40 million over three seasons. The Tigers got him for $14 million in 2024.

A bargain? Depends on how you viewed his half-season with the Orioles and whether he can get back to being the guy who was a highly regarded prospect with the Cardinals.

The Marlins reportedly are receiving trade interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who isn’t a free agent until 2027. Tyler Glasnow is off the board following his trade to the Dodgers, but Dylan Cease and his two years of team control remain available in the right offer. So, apparently, are Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber.

Roster projections and predictions for the 2024 season are a mess because of the rotation uncertainty. Putting a starter with Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer shoves Tyler Wells and DL Hall into the bullpen. Relievers are impacted. It’s bedlam.

If the season started today, fans would need to bundle up and maybe adjust their holiday plans. But also, Wells would be in the rotation again on my 26-man list.

With room for eight relievers, the Orioles would carry Hall, Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Cionel Pérez, Danny Coulombe, Cole Irvin, Jacob Webb (I guess) and …

Four left-handers seems extreme. Keegan Akin would make five. That seems impossible.

Pérez and Irvin are out of options. Akin has one, and he missed most of the season with a back injury.

Webb and Mike Baumann are out of options. Bruce Zimmermann, recovering from core muscle surgery, and Nick Vespi are lefties with one option. Having Hall in the ‘pen directly impacts them.

Tucker Davidson was outrighted in November, removing him from the 40-man roster. He’s also a lefty, he’s out of options, and he’s a long shot for Opening Day.

Bryan Baker, who has an option remaining, made the Division Series roster and walked three consecutive batters in Game 2 before Webb surrendered a grand slam to Mitch Garver. He broke camp with the club in spring training, struggled to strand inherited runners, was optioned Aug. 2 and returned to make one September appearance.

Baker will have to fight to reclaim his spot.

And now, we’ve arrived at Dillon Tate. You remember him. Effective high-leverage reliever in 2022, injured throughout 2023, expected to be ready for spring training.

Tate has two options remaining, which could come in handy. I’m inclined to set up a battle between Tate and Baumann for the last bullpen spot, stressing again that Wells is in my rotation until the Orioles give me a reason to move him.