The Dylan Cease trade market may be heating up again

He is 28, throws 95, 96 mph, has very solid whiff rates and has an ERA of 3.54 in 97 starts over the last three seasons. That includes his 2022 season, when he went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a second-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.

Right now, it appears Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a hot potential trade piece, with the Orioles showing continued interest per numerous reports and now joined by, among other teams, the New York Yankees, in pursuing the 2022 All-Star. According to The Athletic, the Yankees, after losing out on free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto, are going after free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. But now they're also chasing Cease, via the trade market.

The appeal here, beyond his talent level, is that Cease is under team control for two more years. And his salary, through arbitration, could be about $25 million total for both the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That would make Cease obtainable at a much lower price than the top remaining free agents.

All it will take to get Cease is a package of young talent. We say that in a kidding fashion, since it could mean a massive package of prospects.

The Orioles, with the No. 1 farm system in the sport, have plenty of prospects to attract any team via a trade, including the White Sox. But how far would they go for this pitcher, a pitcher who had a 4.58 ERA and 1.418 WHIP last season in 177 innings?

Yes, his batting average on balls in play, which was .260 in 2022, shot up to .330 last year and that may have accounted for some of the inflation in his ERA. But the talent is there. Teams know this and the price Cease figures to command is very, very reasonable.

So how far will a team have to go to get Cease, and is any team willing to meet Chicago’s price?

In December the White Sox were said to be seeking an enormous amount in return. At one point they pulled back on trade talks, seemingly waiting for others, including Yamamoto, to sign. Teams that lost out on that pitcher, like the Yankees did, could then get into the hunt for Cease. That was the White Sox's thinking. They don't have to trade him and can ask for any price they want. But all teams are going to have a line they won't cross in terms of just how much they will give up.

Last month Chicago reportedly asked the Cincinnati Reds for two top pitching prospects in Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, plus two position player prospects. Yep, that is a lot. Lowder, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft, is ranked as the Reds' No. 2 prospect and No. 41 in MLBPipeline.com's top 100, and Petty is the Reds' No. 6. 

Just for comparison sake, the O's No. 2 and No. 6 right now, via MLBPipeline.com, are Colton Cowser and Joey Ortiz. Baseball America, which recently released a new O's top 10, has Samuel Basallo at No. 2 and DL Hall at No. 6.

So why did Cease pitch worse in 2023, and is that a red flag?

Good questions without exact answers. The BABIP stat could be one reason. On his two best pitches - his four-seam fastball and slider - his swing-and-miss results were good both years. But in 2022, the slugging percentage off his fastball was .391. And that went up to .436 last year. Slugging off his slider was a remarkable .209 in 2022 and went up to .339.

Cease had an ERA+ of 112 in 2021, 180 the next year, but just 97 last year.

But that three-year run, from 2021 to 2023, shows a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP along with a 1.257 WHIP, 0.9 homer rate and 29.8 strikeout percentage. The Yankees' Gerrit Cole has a 3.19 FIP over those same seasons, and with 96 starts made one fewer than Cease.

Despite his 2023 numbers, the industry seems to be saying Cease, while not a No. 1 like Cole, is a clear upper-echelon talent, and at his very best as he was in 2022, is in Cole's league. He is in demand and the Yankees are now said to be among the suitors.