After surprise rookie season, is Irvin part of Nats' plan?

PLAYER REVIEW: JAKE IRVIN

Age on Opening Day 2024: 27

How acquired: Fourth-round pick, 2018 Draft

MLB service time: 152 days

2023 salary: $720,000

Contract status: Under club control, likely arbitration-eligible in 2026, free agent in 2030

2023 stats: 3-7, 4.61 ERA, 24 G, 24 GS, 121 IP, 118 H, 66 R, 62 ER, 20 HR, 54 BB, 99 SO, 8 HBP, 1.421 WHIP, 93 ERA+, 5.31 FIP, 1.1 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR

Quotable: “It’s really a testament to the staff we have here. Our trainers, our training staff, everybody’s done a really good job helping me get my body in a position where I could throw every day. It’s something I did for the first time in my career, throwing on four days’ rest. It was a challenge at first, but they really helped me get acclimated to that. It’s been really special. I’ve been very fortunate to be put in this position. But the work’s not done.” – Jake Irvin

2023 analysis: Though he participated in big league camp this spring, Irvin didn’t seem to figure into the Nationals’ 2023 rotation plans, at least not early on. But when struggling No. 5 starter Chad Kuhl landed on the injured list in early May, the Nats summoned the right-hander from Triple-A Rochester to take his place, if only as a short-term fix. Turns out, he would never go back down.

Irvin opened some eyes in his first two major league starts, especially his second one (May 8 in San Francisco) when he tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings and showed uncommon poise for someone with his minimal track record. The next five starts were a struggle, but rather than demote him back to Rochester, the Nationals decided to skip his next turn in the rotation, work on some mechanical changes and give him another shot.

Irvin took off from there. Across his next 15 starts, he delivered a 3.59 ERA and 1.234 WHIP, shockingly establishing himself as the team’s most consistently reliable starter despite his inexperience and lack of pedigree.

The end, though, was not as encouraging. Irvin lost his final two starts, totaling only 7 1/3 innings while watching his ERA jump from 4.34 to 4.61. And when he admitted his right ankle was bothering him, the Nats placed him on the 15-day IL and shut him down with a week-and-a-half remaining in the regular season.

2024 outlook: Few could have foreseen this at the start of the 2023 season, but Irvin seems a lock to be part of the Nationals’ Opening Day 2024 rotation. He won’t have the expectations of Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli, but he won’t be viewed as a mere stopgap fifth starter, either.

It’s up to Irvin, though, to prove he can be part of the long-term plan here. He can do that by channeling what worked for him during that sustained stretch of success this year: Consistently quality efforts that may not have been dominating but did provide length while keeping his team in the game.

Irvin was most effective when throwing his four-seam fastball and curveball. Opponents hit just .201 and slugged just .436 off the former, only .197 and .362 off the latter. It’s a good one-two punch, but he’ll need more than that to make it long-term as a big league starter.

Irvin threw his sinker nearly as much as his four-seam fastball, but the results didn’t compare. Opponents hit .354 and slugged .551 off that pitch, perhaps in large part because he tended to locate that pitch waist-high in the zone instead of knee-high in the zone. Sinkers should lead to ground balls, but Irvin’s 42.5 percent ground ball rate was below the MLB average of 44.6 percent.

More trust in his changeup (which he only threw 5 percent of the time) would help Irvin fully develop as a starter, as well. If he can incorporate those pitches and truly feature a four-pitch repertoire, he has the opportunity to make it long-term as a back-of-the-rotation starter for the Nationals.