Would Williams fare better in bullpen after struggling as starter?

PLAYER REVIEW: TREVOR WILLIAMS

Age on Opening Day 2024: 31

How acquired: Signed as free agent, December 2022

MLB service time: 7 years, 27 days

2023 salary: $6 million

Contract status: Signed for $7 million in 2024, free agent in 2025

2023 stats: 6-10, 5.55 ERA, 30 G, 30 GS, 144 1/3 IP, 178 H, 97 R, 89 ER, 34 HR, 53 BB, 111 SO, 5 HBP, 1.600 WHIP, 78 ERA+, 5.99 FIP, -0.1 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR

Quotable: “I’m just thankful my body was able to hold up all year. It’s a big step forward for me. I don’t know how many innings I ended up with, but for me to have that as a baseline going into next year is only going to help me be ready and sustain me for next year.” – Trevor Williams

2023 analysis: Knowing they needed some established-but-affordable help for what was the majors’ worst rotation in 2022, the Nationals decided to take a two-year flier on Williams, who spent the previous two years as a swingman for the Mets and hadn’t started more than 15 games or topped 100 innings pitched since 2019 for the Pirates. It was a gamble, but one the club felt would pay off.

For two months, it looked like a smart move. Williams hardly dominated, but he did exactly what the Nats needed him to do: Take the ball every fifth day and give them a chance. In 11 starts through the end of May, he sported a 3.93 ERA and 1.291 WHIP, averaging exactly five innings per appearance.

Then things began to take a turn for the worse. Over his next starts heading into the All-Star break, Williams had a 5.10 ERA and 1.667 WHIP (though he still averaged five innings per appearance). The bottom fell out after that: Over his final 13 starts, he had a gaudy 7.28 ERA and 1.854 WHIP, averaging only 4.5 innings each time he took the mound.

The end result: Williams rated as one of the majors’ worst starting pitchers over the entirety of the season. He gave the Nats only 144 1/3 innings despite making 30 starts, and he seemed to be running on fumes come September.

2024 outlook: The Nationals signed Williams to that two-year deal because they believed he could still be a valuable No. 5 starter for them in 2024. Or, if they had developed enough young starting pitching of their own, they could always shift him to the bullpen, where he enjoyed more success in New York.

There’s reason to believe that shift could come next season, though it’ll only come to fruition if everyone else is healthy come Opening Day and the team is willing to include either Jackson Rutledge or Joan Adon in the initial starting five. (Or if the team somehow signs or acquires another experienced starting pitcher.)

If they still have an opening at the back of the rotation, Williams will probably fill it and hope for better results this time around. To do that, though, he’s going to have to avoid all the loud contact he surrendered this season. Opponents “barreled up” his pitches a whopping 10.2 percent of the time, way above his career rate (7.4 percent) and the leaguewide rate (6.9 percent). He gave up the most homers in the National League. And opponents slugged at least .458 against every one of the six different types of pitches he threw.

Two factors, in particular, were most alarming about Williams season. His four-seam fastball (the pitch he threw more than any other) averaged only 89.7 mph after averaging at least 91 mph each of the previous seven seasons. And his struggles didn’t come later in starts as he wore down. Quite the opposite: Opponents had a .919 OPS against him in their first plate appearance (.883 the second time up, .867 the third time up), and his first inning ERA was a staggering 7.50, with 10 homers allowed in 30 innings.

The takeaway from all that? A shift to the bullpen may not be an automatic cure for Williams’ woes. Unless he can add more velocity by pitching in shorter bursts, and unless he can start inducing weaker contact, he may find himself giving up the same type of damage next season no matter his role on the Nationals’ staff.