As draft day arrives, will Nats have to make the ultimate decision?

Since they arrived in Washington nearly two decades ago, the Nationals have been in this position – owners of one of the top two picks in the Major League Baseball Draft – twice. In each case, they owned the No. 1 pick. And in each case, they drafted a generational talent whose name and reputation were already well-known throughout the sport.

Tonight, they’re back in this position for the first time since 2009-10, when they selected Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper and set a course toward an eight-year run of success and an eventual World Series title.

It’s not the No. 1 pick this time around. But if ever there was a year to have the No. 2 pick, this appears to be it. No matter who they end up with, the Nationals are going to draft a player every notable expert insists is good enough to be the No. 1 player selected in the country. Not to mention one who should find himself on a fast track to the big leagues.

“This pick could be somebody that changes us really quick, within one or two years,” manager Davey Martinez recently admitted. “It’s definitely exciting how this is all going to work out.”

There was little drama the last time the Nats were here. Everybody knew Strasburg was the choice in 2009, and everybody knew Harper was the pick in 2010. That’s not the case this time.

The Pirates, who won MLB’s first-ever Draft Lottery to secure the No. 1 pick, have been suggesting for weeks they could choose any of four or five different players. The safest pick would be LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, a slam-dunk talent who just won the Golden Spikes Award and a national championship. If not Crews, then his LSU teammate Paul Skenes would be the obvious alternative, the most accomplished college pitcher since Strasburg came out of San Diego State.

If Pittsburgh takes one of those two, the Nationals probably won’t have to think much about what to do next. They are expected to take whichever LSU star the Pirates don’t, unless they believe Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford is actually the better prospect (not an unreasonable opinion).

But if the Pirates go the unconventional route – and there’s been plenty of speculation they are considering it, in an attempt to spend less on the No. 1 pick so they can spread the savings around on later round picks – that’s when things get tricky for the Nationals. If forced to choose between Crews or Skenes, who would they take?

The draft histories of longtime general manager Mike Rizzo and longtime vice president of scouting Kris Kline suggest they’ll prioritize an elite pitcher like Skenes over an elite hitter like Crews.

The Nats took a pitcher with their first-round pick in 2012 (Lucas Giolito), 2014 (Erick Fedde), 2017 (Seth Romero), 2018 (Mason Denaburg), 2019 (Jackson Rutledge) and 2020 (Cade Cavalli). They’ve selected a position player in the first round only three times over the last decade: 2016 (Carter Kieboom), 2021 (Brady House) and 2022 (Elijah Green). They forfeited their first-round picks in 2013 or 2015 after signing major free agents Rafael Soriano and Max Scherzer.

Rizzo has long believed the best path to win a championship is through a dominant rotation, a path that worked for him both in Arizona in 2001 with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson and in Washington in 2019 with Scherzer and Strasburg. The opportunity to add Skenes to an upcoming rotation that includes Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray may be too enticing to pass up.

There are, of course, greater risks in drafting a pitcher over a position player. Just look at that list of pitchers drafted by the Nationals in the first round over the last decade. Even if the best comp for Skenes is Strasburg, the fear of an inevitable Tommy John surgery and other physical ailments over the years is real.

Crews, then, would be the safer bet. Yes, the Nats believe their burgeoning farm system already is awash with talented outfield prospects. But outside of James Wood, who else looks like a sure thing at this point? Not Green, not Robert Hassell III, not Jeremy De La Rosa, not Cristhian Vaquero. Maybe one or all of them will get there someday, but none has proven himself yet.

Who wouldn’t want to add one of the most accomplished college hitters ever and plug him right into a lineup that desperately needs accomplished hitters as soon as sometime next season?

As always, there are financial considerations at play. Crews is represented by Scott Boras and reportedly is seeking the biggest signing bonus in draft history. Skenes is not, though he’s still in line for a huge payday.

Rizzo and Kline will insist they don’t take such matters into consideration on draft night. They “trust the board” they assembled with their staff over the last week, and that board ranks players based on baseball skills and prospects, not financial matters.

Some might wonder if deep down the Nationals hope the Pirates take either Crews or Skenes. That would take them off the hook, left to draft whichever guy didn’t go No. 1 without having to publicly declare which one they rated higher.

Some might hope Pittsburgh goes elsewhere and puts Rizzo and Kline on the spot. Go ahead and let the world know which LSU star you preferred, then spend the next decade comparing both players’ careers to decide if they made the right choice.

Either way, the Nationals are going to acquire one of the most talented players they’ve ever acquired tonight. And then hope that player lives up to be everything he’s supposed to be.