Could Parker be in danger of losing rotation spot?

SEATTLE – The only change the Nationals have made to their rotation through the season’s first two months was related to injury. When Michael Soroka strained his right biceps muscle in his first start of the year, they turned to rookie Brad Lord to make six spot starts until Soroka was ready to return from the IL.

There have been zero moves made as a result of performance so far. But could the club be headed in that direction?

Mitchell Parker’s outing Tuesday night during a 9-1 loss to the Mariners brings that question back to the forefront. The left-hander was roughed up for three home runs in 4 2/3 innings, including back-to-back blasts by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh in the bottom of the first. And this was merely the latest in a string of rough outings.

It feels like an eternity ago, but Parker opened the season 3-1 with a 1.39 ERA over his first five starts. He put fewer than one batter on base per inning during that stretch while surrendering only one home run.

Since then, it’s been a completely different story. Over his last six starts, Parker is 1-3 with an 8.46 ERA. He has put nearly two batters on base per inning during this stretch while surrendering five total home runs.

While he seems to have resolved the walk problem that plagued him for a couple of weeks, Parker now is giving up loud contact, especially in the first inning (during which his ERA is a whopping 9.00).

The 25-year-old wouldn’t seem to be in immediate danger of losing his job, but the specter of Cade Cavalli’s pending return to the major leagues has to start looming at some point.

Cavalli, who has finally been deemed healthy more than two years removed from Tommy John surgery, is scheduled to pitch today for Triple-A Rochester. He has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts, striking out 13 while walking only two. He still hasn’t thrown more than 74 pitches in a game this season, so it may still be a bit before he’s fully stretched out as a big league starter should be, but the clock has to be ticking on his likely promotion.

The Nationals haven’t disguised their longstanding intention to give their 2020 first round pick an extended opportunity starting in the major leagues at some point this season. Cavalli still has made only one big league start, way back in August 2022. If healthy, the organization is determined to find out once and for all if he’s capable of pitching successfully at the highest level of the sport.

Will the Nats be ready to find out in another week? In another month? They’ve offered no timetable, except to stress they want Cavalli (who will be on an innings limit) to be able to finish the season without being shut down. Reading between the lines, a call-up sometime in June has always felt like the most plausible scenario.

Cavalli still has work to do in Rochester, proving not only he can physically pitch every five or six days but that he can be successful doing it. But you have to think the day is coming when the Nationals will decide it’s time to find out.

And barring an injury to someone else, that also means the day is coming when they need to drop someone from their current big league rotation.

The pressure now falls squarely on Parker’s shoulders to convince club officials he shouldn’t be the one losing his job when the time comes.