June swoon leaves Nats in frustrating place after 81 games

SAN DIEGO – When the Nationals enjoyed their record-setting, 10-run first inning four weeks ago in Arizona, they simultaneously wrapped up a 15-12 record for May, the team’s first winning month since August 2023 and only its second winning month at all since the rebuild began in earnest in July 2021.

It was cause for mild celebration, but it wasn’t the end-all, be-all. It was only the start of something bigger, the Nats believed at the time.

“I would encourage this group to get used to winning,” first baseman Nathaniel Lowe said that night in Phoenix, “because that’s what we strive to do every day. But we’ll take this month and obviously keep going into June and look for another winning month.”

The Nationals won’t finish June with a winning month. They won’t even come close. Even if they sweep the Angels this weekend in Anaheim, they’ll merely improve to 8-18 for the month. That would still be tied for the eighth-worst month in club history. If, god forbid, they get swept, they’ll finish 5-21. That would represent the single worst month in club history.

Suffice it to say, things have taken a decided turn for the worse around here over the last four weeks.

The All-Star break remains more than two weeks away, but the Nats reached the official midway point this season Wednesday when they lost 1-0 to the Padres. They’ve now played 81 games, with 81 games still to be played. Their record is a hugely disappointing 33-48.

It didn’t have to come to this. The Nationals flirted with the .500 mark through most of April and May. They were 30-33 not that long ago. Then came the 11-game losing streak, one shy of the club record, and that skewered everything.

All of a sudden, the Nats can’t even comprehend flirting with the .500 mark again. They would need to win 15 games in a row to even up their record. Spread it out over the remaining 81 games, and they’d still need to somehow go 48-33 to avoid their sixth consecutive losing season. Nothing’s impossible, but that sure sounds improbable.

To reach their 71-win total from each of the last two seasons, the Nationals need to go 38-43. To reach the 75-win mark, they need to go 42-39.

To thrust themselves into the pennant race, they’d need to … well, just go ahead and roll the infamous Jim Mora “Playoffs?! Playoffs?!” clip here.

How did we get to this point? It starts with offense, or a lack thereof. The Nationals have scored only 78 runs this month, fourth-fewest in the majors. That’s an average of 3.4 runs per game. It’s tough to win a lot like that. Why have they struggled so much to score runs? Well, they’re drawing walks at an abysmal 6.7 percent rate, fourth-worst in the majors. Their .364 slugging percentage this month also ranks 27th out of 30 teams.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts a 4.72 ERA this month, which ranks (you guessed it) 27th out of 30 teams. Starters are actually doing OK, with a 4.32 ERA that ranks 17th. The bullpen, meanwhile, may not be historically awful like it was earlier in the season but isn’t exactly tearing it up, either. That unit’s 5.38 ERA this month ranks (you guessed it) 27th out of 30 clubs.

Now, the strange part: Several Nationals players are enjoying a fantastic month in spite of the team’s overall struggles. James Wood has produced an .849 OPS in June, connecting for six homers and 19 RBIs. CJ Abrams has a .300/.370/.467 slash line and is a perfect 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .303 and slugging .461 this month, having recently enjoyed a 12-game hitting streak.

Those three guys, of course, can’t carry the entire lineup themselves. The Nats need more from their fourth through ninth hitters.

And they need more from their starters not named MacKenzie Gore. And their relievers not named Kyle Finnegan.

In short, the Nationals need a lot more from a lot of people if they want to make sure their final 81 games don’t resemble their first 81 games and if they want the 2025 season to represent a positive step forward after all.