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A team’s offseason business usually includes deciding which arbitration-eligible players should be tendered contracts and which ones are allowed to walk into free agency. Or given a shove.
The deadline to grab or let go is Nov. 21.
Players with three-to-six years of service time are eligible, and most fans know every step of the dance. The sides exchange figures if an agreement isn’t reached, and a three-person panel chooses a winner in hearings that run between late January and early February.
The Orioles prefer the file-and-go approach (and I prefer calling it file-and-trial), but they make exceptions for contracts that include options and aren’t just for the upcoming season.
Arbitration contributes to the hikes in payroll. Players don’t take cuts. And some raises are more extreme than others.
But we’ll get to Gunnar Henderson and Trevor Rogers in a minute.
The Orioles have 14 eligible players, which seems like a lot, right? The Rays have 17 and the Astros and Royals 16. The Orioles, Tigers and Yankees are next with 14.
The higher the number, the most likely the non-tenders, except that the Orioles can be unpredictable. They offered contracts to all 17 players in 2023, which was a shocker. Outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna agreed to one-year deals.
No team had more eligible players last offseason than the Orioles with 15. Reliever Jacob Webb was non-tendered. Reliever Cionel Pérez had his option picked up, but he’s now a free agent after a disastrous season. Infielder Emmanuel Rivera went from bubble to being the first of these players to sign a new contract. He also entered free agency this week.
Infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo was the only unsigned player after the deadline to reach agreement prior to a hearing, but the Orioles signed him for $3.55 million and attached a $5.5 million option for 2026 that they might decline.
MLBTradeRumors.com released its salary projections Monday night, with the usual disclaimer that media and fans shouldn’t treat it like a scorecard.
“A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.”
Here’s another look at the 14 Orioles, with their current and possibly future salaries:
Ryan Mountcastle: $6.787 million / $7.8 million
Keegan Akin: $1.475 million / $3 million
Dylan Carlson: $975,000 / $1.5 million
Trevor Rogers: $2.6 million / $6 million
Tyler Wells: $2.075 million / $2.7 million
José Castillo: $760,000 / $1.7 million
Dean Kremer: $2.95 million / $5.1 million
Adley Rutschman: $5.5 million / $6.8 million
Félix Bautista: $1 million / $2.1 million
Kyle Bradish: $2.35 million / $2.8 million
Yennier Cano: $772,900 / $1.8 million
Gunnar Henderson: $782,300 / $6.6 million
Alex Jackson: $760,000 / $1.8 million
Albert Suárez: $825,000 / $900,000
Henderson is in his first year of eligibility and naturally is going to get a huge bump. The kind that in roller derby will send you over the railing and into the street.
You get paid for the past and Henderson was a unanimous choice as American League Rookie of the Year in 2023 and a fourth-place finisher in Most Valuable Player voting in 2024. He had a disappointing 2025 by his raised standards but still hit .274/.349/.438 with 34 doubles, five triples, 17 home runs, 68 RBIs, 30 steals in 35 attempts and a 5.4 bWAR. He’s the sixth Oriole in franchise history with 30-plus doubles and 30-plus steals in a season.
Henderson finished with only eight errors, one after June 8, to put himself in the Gold Glove conversation.
Rogers also is a no-brainer after posting a 1.81 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in 18 starts and being chosen Most Valuable Oriole. His reward for the past only extends back to the 2025 season but that’s plenty.
This is Rogers’ final year of eligibility before free agency and the Orioles could try to negotiate an extension.
Kremer, Rutschman, Bradish and Wells also are locks. Bradish and Wells get smaller bumps because they missed most of 2025 after undergoing elbow reconstructive surgery. Rutschman’s salary jumped from $760,300 to $5.5 million in his first year of eligibility, but he went on the injured list twice this summer with oblique strains and batted .220/.307/.366 in 90 games. Kremer also is in his second year of eligibility after his salary rose from $756,600 to $2.95 million, and his 1.212 WHIP in 31 games is the lowest of his career. He posted a 4.19 ERA in 171 2/3 innings and is going to slot again in the back end of the rotation.
Akin also seems likely to be tendered after appearing in 64 games and registering a 3.41 ERA. He emerged as the first choice to close after the trade deadline and registered eight saves, and a stripped down bullpen certainly could use him.
Bautista is an interesting case because of the shoulder surgery that might cause him to miss the entire 2026 season. The Orioles took care of Bautista after he blew out his elbow in 2023, signing him to a two-year, $2 million contract. They might need to get a little creative again if committed to him beyond another surgery.
Cano is complicated because he struggled so much this summer that the Orioles optioned him. He finished with a 5.12 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 65 appearances, reduced to lower leverage situations whenever possible, and the Orioles must decide whether he’s worth paying close to $2 million.
Suárez was an easier call before the season started and his projected raise is more than reasonable for the healthy version of him, but can the Orioles count on it? The shoulder injury cost him about five months, and elbow pain led to his appointment this week with Dr. Keith Meister. The results of that exam and MRI could influence what the Orioles do with him.
Having Jackson in the debate says a lot about him and the 2025 Orioles. He threw out seven of 24 runners attempting to steal, 13 of his 20 hits went for extra bases, and the team is expected to carry a third catcher next season with Samuel Basallo capable of playing first base. I’m going to assume that he’s tendered.
Left-hander José “Big Dude” Castillo allowed two earned runs (three total) with six hits, three walks and seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings in his five games with the Orioles. A raise to $1.7 million could scare away any team, even one that is rebuilding its ‘pen.
Outfielder Dylan Carlson also is a non-tender candidate after batting .203/.278/.336 with a minus-0.7 bWAR in 83 games. How much do the Orioles want to pay a spare outfielder with minor league options and the ability to play all three spots? More than $1 million?
Full seasons from Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers, if it works out that way, would cut deep into Carlson’s playing time. Mike Elias expects Heston Kjerstad to be ready for spring training. The Orioles probably will sign or trade for at least one outfielder.
That leaves us with Mountcastle, who’s saved for last because it’s Mountcastle.
Free agency is one year away and Mountcastle at around $7.8 million might be too much with Basallo and Coby Mayo needing at-bats at first base. He was injured again, this time his hamstring, and moving in the left field wall didn’t unlock his power.
The clubhouse would take another hit if Mountcastle is gone. He’s one of its most popular players, and his experience is valued. But he slashed .250/.286/.367 with only seven home runs in 89 games, his lowest total since 2020, when he debuted in August. The Orioles will check the market for him, as they’ve done on past trade deadlines, and see if there’s a match.
Mountcastle wants to stay but also is braced for a possible move. He understands the business.
"You never know what's going to happen, but would love to come back,” he said. “I love all these guys. They’re my family.
“They drafted me, they took a chance on me, and it means everything. … I really love being here.”
“It’s gonna be one of my all-time favorite players that I’ve ever worked with for a lot of reasons,” said interim manager Tony Mansolino.
“I think he’s a guy that still hasn’t tapped into his immense potential offensively. I think we’ve seen glimpses of it. I’m still hopeful that he’s going to find it in himself. You’re hopeful that it’s in the organization that raised him and kind of helped to lead him to his initial success in this game, but just like coaches, this business is tricky on players, too. There’s nothing guaranteed in this game for any of us, whether you’re a coach or a player.
“I hope that Mounty finds a home. Hopefully it’s here. If it’s not, hopefully it’s somewhere else. There’s gonna be a lot of people interested in the guy because of the skillset, because of the potential and because of some of the results that he’s had in this game. He’s been a really integral part of this organization turning into a winning organization and going through the lean years, and it’s somebody I love and somebody I’m very proud of.”
