Sky's the limit for Abrams after season of improvement

PLAYER REVIEW: CJ ABRAMS

Age on Opening Day 2024: 23

How acquired: Traded with MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit from Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, August 2022

MLB service time: 1 year, 130 days

2023 salary: $724,200

Contract status: Under team control, possibly Super 2 arbitration-eligible in 2025, free agent in 2029

2023 stats: 151 G, 614 PA, 563 AB, 83 R, 138 H, 28 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 47 SB, 4 CS, 32 BB, 118 SO, .245 AVG, .300 OBP, .412 SLG, .712 OPS, 95 OPS+, 4 DRS, 3.4 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR

Quotable: “CJ has been terrific. We moved him to the leadoff spot because we thought he earned the move to the leadoff spot. And his offense has shown us things that we thought were inside him when we traded for him at the trade deadline. You can see the power, you can see the good at-bats that he’s shown. But to me, the most impressive part about him is the way he and Ricky Gutierrez have worked hard defensively. And I think that you saw after, like, the first three, four weeks or the season, where he could have really went to a spiral down defensively, he went the other way. He took a step forward. And I think that he’s on his way to being a terrific, consistent defender that we’re looking for that can make those highlight-reel type of plays at any time.” – general manager Mike Rizzo

2023 analysis: CJ Abrams began his season batting ninth on Opening Day, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout and committing three errors during a 7-2 loss to the Braves. It was, by any measure, a disastrous opening statement to the young shortstop’s first full season with the Nationals. Six months later, it was a mere footnote to a breakthrough year that left everyone with the organization giddy about his long-term potential.

Abrams’ season really can be broken into two parts: Before he was moved into the leadoff position and after he was moved into the leadoff position. Manager Davey Martinez waited to make the switch until he felt like he was seeing signs of progress from the 22-year-old, most notably an improved offensive approach. Martinez intended to make the move after the All-Star break, but Abrams’ strong finish to June and start to July convinced the manager to do it a couple days earlier.

How did Abrams respond? Beautifully. Through his first 63 games, Abrams hit .215/.259/.365 with eight walks and six stolen bases. Over his final 88 games, Abrams hit.265/.325/.442 with 24 walks and a whopping 41 steals (while only being caught twice). He finished 47-of-51, breaking Trea Turner’s single-season club record.

Just as he made strides at the plate, so did Abrams in the field. Working with newly added run-prevention coordinator (and former big league infielder) Ricky Gutierrez, he became far more smooth and reliable at shortstop, charged with only eight errors over his final 71 games. Routine plays were routine. And highlight-reel plays seemed to occur on a nightly basis.

2024 outlook: The sky really is the limit for Abrams, who has every reason to believe he can continue to improve in every department next year and elevate himself into one of the game’s best all-around shortstops.

At the plate, Abrams showed he can hit for power; his 52 extra-base hits were eighth-most among all big league shortstops. He has the ability to top 35 doubles and 25 homers if he can make hard contact with a bit more frequency (especially to the opposite field, where only 11 of his extra-base hits this year landed). And if he can somehow maintain the pace he set after the move to the top of the order, he could threaten to steal 75 bases.

The most encouraging progress Abrams made offensively this season, though, was in his improved patience down the stretch. After drawing a walk in a paltry 4 percent of his plate appearances for five months, he increased that rate to a strong 10.5 percent in September. The more pitches he sees, the more times he’s going to reach base, the more opportunities he’ll have to steal bases and the more well-rounded leadoff hitter he’ll become.

In the field, Abrams will continue to limit mistakes on routine plays while trying to become more anticipatory and explosive on tough plays, especially grounders hit to his right. A Gold Glove Award nomination isn’t out of the question.

The biggest question the Nationals now face: How aggressively do they want to try to lock up Abrams with a long-term deal? He’s under club control five more seasons, so there’s no rush. But the price tag will only rise as he reaches arbitration and ultimately free agency. The Nats were able to convince Keibert Ruiz to sign after his first full big league season. They should make a real push to do the same with Abrams before Opening Day 2024.