Trade deadline presents one easy decision, several tough ones

CHICAGO – Rarely does a team deal away two stars, one of them a surefire Hall of Famer, in one trade deadline transaction. Now consider how rare it is for a team to do that two years in a row.

Suffice it to say, the Nationals’ 2021 and 2022 trade deadline moves were highly unusual. Teams just don’t generally put the likes of Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Josh Bell all on the trade block in the span of 12 months. Whether they should’ve done that or not is an old debate at this point. It’s too late now to change history.

What isn’t debatable is the significance of the Scherzer/Turner deal to the Dodgers in 2021 and the Soto/Bell deal to the Padres in 2022. Those two moves alone netted the Nationals four current young major leaguers, one of the highest-rated prospects in baseball, two more who could reach the majors in the coming years and two others who to date haven’t panned out.

“I think we impacted our franchise greatly,” general manager Mike Rizzo said this week when asked to look back at his last two deadlines. “I think that we put the rebuild process in overdrive. And I think that we’re further along than if we hadn’t done those two trade deadlines.”

We’re now 12 days away from this year’s trade deadline (Aug. 1), and this much is clear: While the Nationals do have a few quality players who could be attractive to contenders, they don’t have anyone who compares to the aforementioned fabulous four. There are no franchise-altering deals to be made this time, only some calculated transactions and some interesting decisions to be made on a few guys who still could or could not be part of the Nationals’ long-term plans.

Rizzo’s decisions this time around really fall into two categories: Pending free agents and those who remain under club control beyond 2023.

Of the pending free agents, Jeimer Candelario stands out as the most likely player to be dealt by the end of the month. The 29-year-old has enjoyed a nice bounceback season after struggling in Detroit in 2022, entering the weekend with 27 doubles, 15 homers, 46 RBIs and an .819 OPS while also playing a smooth third base.

Owed about $2 million for the rest of the season, Candelario is a very affordable source of both offensive and defensive production for a contender in need of a third baseman (though there aren’t many teams in that particular market). He’s also become incredibly popular within the Nationals clubhouse and has professed his desire to stay. With prospects Brady House and Yohandy Morales waiting in the wings but unlikely to be big-league-ready until late 2024 or early 2025 at best, the Nats are going to need a third baseman heading into next season anyway, and Candelario would make plenty of sense as a continued stop-gap solution.

“This is who I know he can be,” said manager Davey Martinez, who first coached Candelario with the Cubs. “We’ve still got a long way to go, and he’s done really well. For him, it’s about not trying to do too much, staying in the middle of the field. Home runs will come. Understand who you are. You’re a guy that can hit 50 doubles, drive in some runs for us, play great defense. And he’s done that. I love writing his name in the lineup. You know what you’re going to expect from him every day.”

Rizzo thought he’d have several other attractive players available for rental at this deadline in the form of outfielder Corey Dickerson and reliever Carl Edwards Jr. Dickerson, though, has struggled mightily after signing last winter for $2.25 million. And Edwards, while an effective setup man since he arrived early last season, remains on the 15-day injured list with shoulder inflammation and may not make it back to the active roster before the Aug. 1 deadline.

That shifts some of the focus to players who aren’t on expiring contracts but could be appealing to contenders like outfielder Lane Thomas and relievers Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey.

Harvey, who can’t become a free agent until 2026, likely dropped off the trade block when he landed on the IL this week with an elbow strain that isn’t expecting to sideline him the rest of the season but will be a major red flag for any interested team. Finnegan, also a free agent in 2026, is healthy and has shown an ability to pitch well in a fireman/setup role. But that also makes him valuable to a Nationals club that is woefully short on reliable bullpen arms.

Which brings us to Thomas, maybe the most interesting case of all. In the midst of a breakthrough season that earned him All-Star consideration, the 27-year-old has become perhaps the team’s best offensive player. He, like the others mentioned above, is under club control until 2026. He could be a part of the next winning team here. Or he could be an attractive addition for another team.

How does Rizzo approach the situation with Thomas?

“The tricky part is getting back the value you want for them,” the GM said. “I see Lane Thomas as having an All-Star first half of the season. He’s got tools, he’s young, he’s a terrific player. If another team views him only as a part-time or bench player, we won’t have a deal. If somebody views him the way I view him, and the way our staff views him, then we’d have a conversation.”

Thomas, for what it’s worth, was one of the first major league pieces the Nationals acquired during the teardown of July 2021, a trade deadline pickup from the Cardinals for a soon-to-retire Jon Lester. In many ways, he has come to embody the whole rebuilding process. Shouldn’t that make him part of the answer, not part of the problem?

That’s a question only Rizzo can answer. The casual observer can look at the Nationals’ situation and acknowledge it makes sense to deal Candelario. It gets more complicated when it comes to Thomas.

“Everyone on expiring (contracts), those decisions are fairly easy,” Rizzo admitted. “That factors into it. You have a good player, a good All-Star-caliber player in Lane Thomas, and you have him for two more seasons after this … sure, that makes it much more difficult to trade. That’s code word for: ‘We’d have to get a good return.’”