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Oh, how things can change in 3 ½ years. Heck, how things can change in 11 months.
Thursday’s trade of MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers for five prospects not only marked the end of the Nationals’ previous rebuild, but also the beginning of the next one.
As hard as it may be for fans to hear after four years of rebuilding, new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni admitted as much when he spoke to the media over a Zoom call Thursday night to discuss the deal that has now put the Nats even further away from contention.
“I think we’ve got to be honest with ourselves,” Toboni said. “The truth is – and I don’t think this is a mystery to the fan base, the media or anyone – we lost 96 games last year. To turn it around in one year and make the playoffs ... not to say it can’t be done, but it’s a challenge. What we want to do is make sure we build this really strong foundation, so when we do start to push chips in, we can win for an extended period of time. That fits with that strategy for us.”
That’s a harsh reality from the new man in charge, and a direct contrast from what fans heard the previous regime say ahead of last season.
“I’m excited about this group,” former manager Davey Martinez said at the start of spring training last February. “This young core of guys we’ve got, these are the guys we really feel could be here for a long time. We made some unbelievable acquisitions that’s going to help us this year. With those veteran guys and the young core we have, this year I think we’re going to have a really good year.”
Former president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo echoed that sentiment, also saying at the time: “I think we’ve improved the club. I think we’ll go from a competitive team last year to a real tough team to play this year.”
While maybe not a direct declaration that the club anticipated winning season, those quotes certainly put more expectations on the 2025 Nationals than perhaps were necessary. And sure enough, last year’s team was not up to the task of meeting them, costing both Rizzo and Martinez their jobs before the All-Star break, and leading to the hiring of Toboni and the start of this latest rebuild.
We’ll also be left to wonder: If the previous two men in charge had not set such expectations, and instead reiterated the need for one more building year, would they have kept their jobs? With one more year of development in 2025, would the Nationals finally be ready to compete again this year?
Of course, that is now a moot point, with the organization taking a sharp pivot in another direction. One that fans may be frustrated with because that direction is seemingly backwards.
There are two sides to every deal: One in the baseball sense of the organization and one in the emotional sense of the fan base. Believe it or not, both can be true.
Trading Gore made the most sense for the Nationals’ baseball future.
As Toboni noted, the Nats are likely not going to win a lot of games this year. Fans may argue that is even more true now that the staff ace is gone. It's hard to argue with that, but bear with me.
While it has some intriguing pieces, the Nats’ farm system isn’t very strong and needs replenishing.
Gore has two years left of team control, making him more valuable in a trade than he would be at this year’s trade deadline or next offseason. Plus, he’s a Scott Boras client, meaning he’s unlikely to sign a contract extension until he tests the free agent market after the 2027 season.
From a pure baseball standpoint, this move made the most sense considering where Toboni sees the current state of the organization. That being said, he wasn’t just going to give up the left-hander for the sake of giving him up.
“We were going to hold a really high bar because we think the world of MacKenzie as a player,” Toboni said. “And if a team met it or exceeded it, great. But we were comfortable holding him … the market started to move a little bit this past week.
"If you asked me a week ago was this going to happen, I probably would have said no. But over the course of the last week, just momentum built and finally got to a spot where it made sense for us."
Toboni got five prospects back for one player. On the face of it, that’s a win for a rebuilding Nationals organization. Is this five-player haul the same as the five-player haul Rizzo got for Juan Soto in 2022? No. That was a generational group of prospects – one that Gore was a part of – for a generational talent in one of the biggest trades in Major League Baseball history.
But did the Nats get back scrubs? Also no. All five of those prospects were ranked in the Rangers’ top 20, per MLB Pipeline. Three were in the top 15. And two were in the top 10, with shortstop Gavin Fien being Texas’ second-ranked prospect.
The five have now been added the Nationals’ top 30 (keeping in mind MLB Pipeline has yet to update its top-30 rankings for all teams and will do so ahead of the season):
5. Gavin Fien (SS)
11. Alejandro Rosario (RHP)
12. Devin Fitz-Gerald (INF)
17. Yeremy Cabrera (OF)
24. Abimelec Ortiz (1B)
Fien was the No. 12 overall pick in last summer's MLB Draft, giving the Nats two players from that class' top 12 alongside No. 1 pick Eli Willits. With a projected move to third base for Fien, the Nationals’ future left side of the infield could be filled by two top-12 picks from the 2025 Draft.
Farm system rankings have not been updated recently, but pundits around the industry believe this group of prospects elevates the Nats to just outside or maybe inside the top 10 in the sport.
But how do you sell the potential of prospects who are two to three years away from the major leagues to a weary fan base that has suffered a lot of losing since winning a World Series title in 2019?
That leads us to the other side of this deal that can also be true: Fans are frustrated and tired.
Nats fans were promised better times ahead on the day Rizzo dealt Soto to the Padres. Those days have yet to come to fruition. And now one of the pieces that was supposed to help deliver on those better times has been traded away for yet another promise that is to be determined.
After a stretch of eight seasons between 2012-19 when the Nationals were one of the winningest teams in baseball, they have now endured a stretch of losing that is about to match that time frame and probably exceed it.
So what’s Toboni’s message to frustrated fans?
“I hear it, and I empathize with it,” he said. “There would be part of me – I think back to my 15-year-old self; I was a Giants fan at the time – bummed to see a player of this caliber leaving, and a leader on the team and that sort of thing.
“But I would paint a much more optimistic picture. I think the excitement that comes with these players we’re getting in return exceeds the disappointment of seeing MacKenzie go. That’s just me talking as the head of baseball operations now. I’m really excited about the package we’ve gotten in return. And I hope fans see it in the same way.”
Time might prove him right. But it's hard for fans to see it that same way right now.
“I read this reasoning to my 7-year-old. He just gave me a blank stare,” a fan replied to me on X, formerly Twitter.
I had to do a similar explanation of the Soto trade to my then 7-year-old nephew 3 ½ years ago. It’s not easy.
Nothing about this is easy. Toboni said as much. But it’s the best path forward for the franchise.
Toboni was not hired to fix Rizzo’s rebuild. He was hired to start his own. He’s revamped the front office, updated the player development department and now has injected new talent into the farm system.
But again, that doesn’t make Thursday’s news any easier for Nats fans to accept. It shouldn’t. Unfortunately, they’re accustomed to this feeling now.
One thing fans can hang their hats on is the fact that Toboni and Co. are doing this differently. Although these feelings are familiar, this project is not going to look the same as the previous rebuild, which couldn’t climb out of the pit of despair.
Will it work? Again, only time will tell.
Will Toboni make a similar move with another piece from the Soto deal in CJ Abrams? He’s now shown he’s not afraid to if he thinks it prudent for the franchise.
But the Gore move was a good one for the franchise at this point in time. The unfortunate part is that the feeling, to put it bluntly, still sucks.
Once again, Nats fans are left hanging onto hope.
