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On the day he traded Juan Soto, Mike Rizzo acknowledged the raw emotions everyone was feeling at the time but insisted it ultimately would leave the Nationals in a better position to win long-term.
“I think it accelerates the process,” the former general manager said. “I think that you lose a generational talent like that, but you put in five key elements of your future championship roster.”
Not even 3 1/2 years later, the man who replaced Rizzo running baseball operations tried to explain how trading away one of those “key elements of your future championship roster” for five more prospects – long before this franchise has come anywhere close to winning again – will put the Nats in a better position to win long-term, a message that is increasingly difficult for a weary fanbase to accept.
“I hear it, and I empathize with it,” Paul Toboni said Thursday night after trading MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers. “There would be part of me – I think back to my 15-year-old self; I was a Giants fan at the time – bummed to see a player of this caliber leaving, and a leader on the team and that sort of thing.
“But I would paint a much more optimistic picture. I think the excitement that comes with these players we’re getting in return exceeds the disappointment of seeing MacKenzie go. That’s just me talking as the head of baseball operations now. I’m really excited about the package we’ve gotten in return. And I hope fans see it in the same way.”
Toboni can hope that proves true some day. But he’s going to have a hard time finding many fans who share his viewpoint on this day.
As agonizing as the Soto trade was, and as agonizing as all the other teardown trades that preceded it the previous summer were, most Nationals fans reluctantly accepted the premise. What remained of the 2019 championship roster was no longer good enough to compete for more championships. And there simply weren’t enough quality prospects in the club’s farm system ready to replace the aging stars who celebrated with champagne on that glorious Wednesday night in Houston.
So, most fans accepted The Rebuild as necessary. And given the massive haul Rizzo extracted from the Padres in the Soto deal, there was reason to believe those five prospects would become key components of the franchise’s next contender. A belief that was only bolstered when three of the prospects became All-Stars within three years.
But now, with the franchise having taken a major step backwards in the third (or fourth, depending on your perspective) year of the rebuild, one of those elite prospects-turned-All-Stars has now been traded for five more prospects while he still had two years of club control attached to his name.
Can you blame Nationals fans who aren’t all-in on the plan this time around?
“I think we’ve got to be honest with ourselves,” Toboni said. “The truth is – and I don’t think this is a mystery to the fanbase, the media or anyone – we lost 96 games last year. To turn it around in one year and make the playoffs ... not to say it can’t be done, but it’s a challenge. What we want to do is make sure we build this really strong foundation, so when we do start to push chips in, we can win for an extended period of time. That fits with that strategy for us.”
Thing is, Toboni is right. The Nationals organization he inherited in October wasn’t well-positioned to win big in the short-term. Yes, there were compelling young pieces to an eventual winner. But there were still too many significant holes, and not nearly enough organizational depth, to think this team was a couple of free agents away from winning 90 games.
Toboni wasn’t hired to finish the rebuild Rizzo started. He was hired to conduct his own rebuild, and that meant he couldn’t feel an obligation to retain every player he inherited. Gore may have been the best pitcher they had, and he may have been on the cusp of a true breakthrough. But his ascension alone wasn’t going to be enough to turn the Nationals into contenders before he became a free agent following the 2027 season.
Could the Nats have instead tried to lock up Gore to a contract extension, ensuring he would still be here when the team is ready to win? Sure. Toboni needed only to dial 1-800-BORASCORP and make Scott an offer he would immediately refuse. We’ve played this game long enough around here to know how it ends.
So, there was a compelling baseball reason to trade Gore now. The key to selling the deal to a skeptical audience? Nailing the prospect return. Rizzo, for all his other mistakes along the way, did nail the return on the Soto trade.
Did Toboni do the same? It’s impossible to say right now, though it’s also clear this haul comes nowhere close to matching the Soto haul (in which all five players were rated among San Diego’s top-10 prospects at the time).
The Rangers parted with only two of their top-10 prospects in this trade: shortstop Gavin Fien (No. 2) and right-hander Alejandro Rosario (No. 6). The three others ranked much lower on the list: infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald (No. 12), outfielder Yeremy Cabrera (No. 16) and first baseman Abimelec Ortiz (No. 18). None were on MLB Pipeline’s midseason 2025 Top-100 prospect list, though the organization has yet to unveil its 2026 preseason rankings.
Fien has the best potential of the bunch to become a star, an 18-year-old shortstop from California selected with the 12th overall pick in last summer’s draft. Toboni suspects the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder will split time between shortstop and third base before the organization decides where he best fits long-term. Regardless of his eventual position in the field, the Nats see him as a potential cornerstone player in the future.
“I don’t think any of these players are surefire bets, but we’re really excited to be bringing him into the system,” Toboni said. “Because he fits what we want from an offensive perspective (and) defensively, but also from a makeup perspective. He’s the type of leader we want and has the type of character we want.”
Rosario was a top-50 prospect entering 2025 but didn’t pitch the entire season due to an elbow injury and only now will be undergoing Tommy John surgery in a few weeks. That sidelines him until 2027, at which point he’ll be a 25-year-old who has yet to reach Double-A. A 25-year-old with an elite arm and long-term potential, the Nationals believe.
“We really, really like the talent that Alejandro is,” Toboni said. “The medical stuff, that’s part of it. It’s odd to say, but in today’s game, he’s not the only one going through it. We thought it was a worthwhile bet to make.”
Fitz-Gerald and Cabrera, each 20, have long-term potential but are currently in Single-A. Ortiz, 23, is the only one of the five already on the 40-man roster, has averaged 25 homers each of the last three seasons and could challenge for immediate playing time at a first base position that currently has no proven big leaguer in sight.
Suffice it to say, it’s going to be a while until we have any clue whether this trade worked out for the Nationals. Which is appropriate, because it’s going to be a while until we have any clue whether the Nationals are ready to win.
It’s not Toboni’s fault they’re this far away. It is his task to shorten that timeline as much as possible and give a weary fanbase some reason to believe this is all going to be worth it in the end.
